Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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106 FXUS61 KGYX 290036 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 836 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A weak frontal boundary dropping out of Canada will continue showers and thunderstorms into the evening. The front slowly slips offshore on Friday as low pressure track east along the front offshore of Cape Cod. This will bring another chance of showers Friday into Friday night. Cooler, more seasonable temperatures return for the weekend with dry conditions Saturday and another chance for showers on Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6am/...
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8pm update... The front has pushed through the region. Remaining shower activity has pushed off shore with the front. Overnight look for the front to remain stalled to our south. Dewpoints remain in the mid 60s. The combination of a humid airmass and cloud cover will keep overnight temperatures up in the 60s and allow patchy fog to form. Prev disc... A weak front will move south across the region tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Some storms may be be strong but dynamics are not favorable for a sever weather outbreak. By later in the evening most of the stronger convection will diminish to just showers. Temperatures will be warm and muggy tonight as per model guidance.
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&& .SHORT TERM / THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
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8pm update... Looking ahead to tomorrow still expecting a low to develop around delmarva and move northwards passing between the benchmark and Cape Cod. Deterministic guidance has come into good agreement on the low track however there is still some spread in the northward extent of the precipitation shield. While this low will be strong for the time of year /around 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal/ and has a strong jet maxima aloft, it is lacking the mid level dynamics /low level jet or frontogenesis/ that typically drive the heavier precipitation patterns northwest of a low center in winter. Without these dynamics, expect the precipitation to be more convectively driven and thus remain south of the sagging front... keeping most of the precipitation in Massachusetts. Have thus pulled the northward extend of the PoP back southward a bit. At the same time the juicier summer airmass does have the potential to create heavy rain in localized areas in convective downpours as PWAT climbs to near 1.75 inches. Have thus added heavy rain wording to the extreme southern New Hampshire and Maine seacoast. Prev disc.... On Friday the front becomes stationary to the south with a low/mid level wave of low pressure developing along the front over the southern new england coast and moves rapidly east by Friday evening. Heavy qpf will be associated with this wave to our south but our forecast area will be far enough north and spared to only receive .25-.50 inches Friday with the heaviest amounts over southeast NH. Temperatures will be cooler Friday and Friday night as cooler air from the north slowly spreads south. Used a blend of models for pops and temperatures and RFCQPF.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... With active wx across the forecast area this afternoon the extended forecast will stay close to the previous forecast. Used a multi-model consensus blend with the previous forecast. Little change is seen with the latest model guidance...with another round of showers possible Sun night or Mon...and gradually warming temps and scattered afternoon showers for the remainder of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term...MVFR and possible brief ifr conditions tonight through Friday in scattered showers and even a few possible thunderstorms. Conditions will improve to vfr Friday night. Long Term...A period of MVFR conditions is possible in SHRA Sun night and Mon. Confidence is low on how far N those SHRA extend...so much of the forecast area may remain dry and VFR. && .MARINE... Short Term...Conditions to remain below SCA thresholds through Friday night. Long Term...Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Curtis SHORT TERM...Curtis LONG TERM...Legro AVIATION...Legro/Marine MARINE...Legro/Marine

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