Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 162255 CCA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Gray ME 655 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The active weather pattern continues as another system crosses tonight and Sunday bringing light rain and some mountain snow. Breezy, cyclonic flow remains over the region behind this system and through much of the upcoming week; temperatures are expected to trend cooler toward seasonal averages during that time, with snow showers at least over the mountains and occasionally spilling toward the coast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Any lingering showers near the Midcoast continue to dissipate at this hour. However, we cannot rule out a few more this evening as a weak warm front continues to progress northward. Otherwise, quiet until the next batch of precipitation arrives from the west well after midnight which the forecast has a good handle on. No no significant changes at this hour. Previously... The Cu field and isolated showers from the afternoon heating and instability will gradually be replaced by thickening clouds overnight as a warm front approaches the region. This warm air advection and moisture will allow showers to enter the region later tonight from west to east. Atmospheric profiles suggest the ptype will be mainly rain across the region with only some light snow across the higher elevations in the north. Will continue the possibility of patchy fog across much of the region as well overnight. This is supported by the latest HREF solution. The elevated dew points will also allow for temperatures to only fall into the 30s in most locations.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The showers and periods of steady rain will continue into Sunday morning ahead and along an approaching cold front. Any snow will be limited to the highest elevations in the north. Developing partial clearing will allow for temperatures to climb well into the 40s over southern and central areas with some 50s across the far south. Cold air advection and a gusty west to northwesterly flow will allow for downslope winds along the south. Snow showers will retreat towards the upslope regions of the northern mountains during the night. A breeze will keep temperatures fairly uniform with upper 20s in the north to the lower 30s in the south. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Overview: A cool and at times unsettled pattern is in store for much of the extended portion of the forecast as a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) and positive Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) favor broad troughiness over the Eastern U.S. Impacts: No major weather related impacts are anticipated for the extended portion of the forecast at this time. Forecast Details: The forecast begins with a long wave positively tilted 500-mb trough axis over the eastern Seaboard with a weak area of low pressure located over southern Canada on Monday. This area of low pressure will send a sfc cold front southward over New England during the day with a few scattered rain and snow showers accompanying this frontal passage. While QPF will be light, some upslope enhancement could allow for around an inch or so of snow accumulation, mainly across the higher peaks. Ahead of this front, temperatures will climb well into the 40s south of the mountains with 30s further to the north. The front clears the coast Monday evening as the upper level trough axis becomes negatively tilted overhead. Other than lingering snow and rain showers across the north/mountains, the rest of the region will remain mainly dry. Lows on Monday night will be primarily into the 20s with highs on Tuesday into the 30s to middle 40s from north to south. High pressure will allow for a mainly dry day on Wednesday, although the lingering cool pool aloft does introduce a non-zero chance for an isolated shower. Highs will be similar to those of Tuesday, 30s across the north and lower to mid 40s south. A weak wave then looks to cross during the Wednesday night into Thursday timeframe, allowing for a better opportunity for scattered light showers. Temperatures will be at or even a bit below average with lows Thursday night potentially falling into the single digits and teens. A more organized system is then possible towards next weekend but forecast confidence is low at this time range. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...IFR and MVFR conditions return to the region tonight with lowering ceilings and patchy fog. This will continue into Sunday morning before the ceilings and visibilities lift over southern areas to VFR. MVFR and IFR conditions will continue across the north and continue into Sunday night. Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected Monday through Thursday outside of any scattered -SHRA/SHSN. West-northwest wind gusts may approach 20 kts each afternoon before weakening during the evening and night. MVFR ceilings could be more persistent at KHIE due to upslope flow. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCAs have been issued for all of the waters which will continue through Sunday. Gusty westerly winds may continue into Sunday night. Long Term...West-northwesterly winds largely to remain below 25 kts through the period, although some gusts to around 25 kts will be possible at times.... especially late Tuesday into early Wednesday behind a frontal passage. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ151- 153. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster SHORT TERM...Cannon LONG TERM...Tubbs

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