Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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328 FXUS61 KGYX 200753 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 353 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Jose will pass south and east of Cape Cod today and tonight, and could produce some scattered showers today and gusty winds along the coast into Thursday. Otherwise high pressure will be the main feature and stay in place across the region into early next week, with temperatures running above normal through the period, and mainly clear skies Thursday through Monday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As the center of Jose passes S and E of Cape Cod today, it will also begin to exhibit some effects of a brief extratropical transition as it gets tugged on by a trough passing well to the N. this should help expand its wind field a bit starting today, and will see winds increase during the day, with some gusts of 25-30 mph possible on the coast late today. Showers associated with Jose outer bands are working N-NW onshore but continue to struggle as the run into the strong ridging. Some clearing is possible this afternoon, mainly in the north and in the CT valley N of KLEB, but otherwise it will be mainly cloudy. Highs will range from the upper 60s to the mid 70s, warmest in the CT valley.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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Jose will begin to slow its eastward progression tonight and eventually become nearly stationary south of the Gulf of ME late Thursday. The combination of Jose lingering and sfc ridging building to our north will help maintain a strong pres gradient and allow breezy conditions to continue overnight into Thursday. In fact, may see the strongest winds on Thu as flow shifts more NNW and mixing improves in CAA, albeit weak CAA, and from the mechanical effects of downsloping. As for any additional SHRA from Jose, it looks like any chc of precip will be done by this evening, so mainly dry after that. Clouds should begin to erode from N-S overnight, with mainly sunny conditions on Thu. Lows tonight will stay mild, with the wind keeping up and keeping the atmosphere mixed, with lows in the mid 50s N to low 60s in the S. Highs on Thu will be aided by the strong downslope and should work to counteract whatever weak CAA exists, with highs mostly in the 70s, and approaching 80 in the CT valley. Also have extended the Heavy surf advisory along the coast through tonight at least, when coastal directed swell looks to be at its greatest. May need to push this into thu, but will let the day shift look at it.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The models are in decent agreement on the long wave pattern through the upcoming weekend. We begin the period with an upper ridge across northern New England and the remnants of Jose meandering well offshore to our south and east. The ridge will continue to strengthen as we head into the weekend at which time the remnants of Jose will be kicked well offshore. The eastern ridge and western trough will hold across the CONUS through the start of the new work week with predominantly dry weather and abnormally warm temperatures to continue. By mid week...hurricane Maria may be lurking off the eastern seaboard similar to the current tropical system Jose.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Short Term...Coastal terminals should see only very limited improvement to IFR for a few hours today, but may slip down to LIFR this evening, despite N winds gusting to 20-25 kts at times. Inland terminals will see better improvement this afternoon. All terminals should begin to improve late tonight as drier air working in on those gusty winds, with VFR expected everywhere by sunrise Thu. The gusty winds will continue through Thu. Long Term... Fri...NE sfc wind gusting to 25 kt psb at coastal TAF sites.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term...Have bumped up the zone S of Casco Bay to gales through tonight, as we see winds increase during the day. Otherwise, holding onto SCA for now across the rest of the waters, but could see some borderline gales outside of the gales during the day on Thu. Seas will peak tonight and generally in the 7-11 ft range outside of the bays. Long Term... Fri...Small Craft seas and wind gusts are probable outside the bays. Sat - Sun...lingering Small Craft seas are likely outside the bays.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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Long period swells will continue through tonight. High tide at Portland is 10.6 ft around midnight, and conditions may be a little worse tonight given slightly greater swell, and possibly leading to minor splash over and some beach erosion.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ023>028. NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for NHZ014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ150>153. Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Cempa SHORT TERM...Cempa LONG TERM...Schwibs AVIATION... MARINE... TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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