Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 282216 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 615 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING IN WARMER SIR FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COLDER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION THE WEEKEND...BRINGING EVEN COLDER AIR THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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615 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. WE EXPECT FOG AND DRIZZLE LATER ON TONIGHT BUT STEADIER SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SHOULD MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. PREVIOUSLY... A WARM FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.. BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S IN THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD.. REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF TOMORROWS COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE DEVELOPING THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WED. THE MORNING WILL START OFF MILD... WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LINGERING IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST MID MORNING... AND CLEAR THROUGH THE COAST BY MID AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT... BUT THE TOTAL AMOUNT WILL BE MINIMAL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 500 MB PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NRN HEMISPHEREREMAINS DOMINATED BY BY SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE OMEGA BLOCKS...WHICH OSCILLATE IN AMPLITUDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY...THE REGION STARTS OUT IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN TWO TROUGHS...BUT POTENT WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE YUKON AND INTO BASE OF TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CLOSES THE LOW OFF AND TILTS IT NEGATIVE...WHICH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF PRECIP TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...AND PULL SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR SWD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S...AND GENERALLY MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WEAK SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIALLY 500MB TROUGH SLIDES WWD OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES...WITH A THREAT FOR A FEW SHRA DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES START TO LOWER THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINNING SAT AS THE GFS TAKES THE SRN STREAM WAVE OUT OF PLAY BEFORE THE 500MB WAVE DROPS SWD INTO THE GRT LAKES AND OHIO VLY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA ON SAT INTO SAT NIGHT...WITH THE COASTAL SFC LOW ULTIMATELY WEAKER AND DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E...ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY DRY BUT COOL SUNDAY. STILL...THE MTNS COULD END UP WITH LIGHT COATING OF SNOW SAT NIGHT. THE 12Z EURO...AND TO SOME DEGREE THE 12Z GLOBAL CMC DO PHASE THE 500MB WAVES...BUT BOTH ARE DO IT FURTHER S THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND A LITTLE BIT LATER. SO THE LOW INTENSIFIES SAT NIGHT AND TRACKS OUTSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. WHICH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO AREAS NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT COLDER AIR HOLDS OFF A LITTLE LONGER. STILL BOTH THESE MODELS DO INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW...WHERE THE BEST CHC WOULD BE EASTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL 4-5 DAYS OUT...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS TO FINE TUNING ANY AREA THAT COULD GET ACCUMULATING SNOW ON SUNDAY OR ANY AMOUNTS...BUT THE HTREAT OF ACCUMULATING REMAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL CARVE OUT A A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMER AIR TO MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NOTE CONCORD /KCON/ IS EXPERIENCING LOW AND VARIABLE VISIBILITY DUE TO A CONTROLLED BURN AT THE AIRFIELD. TONIGHT WILL SEE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST.. WITH RKD..PSM...AND PWM EXPECTED TO REACH IFR BY SUNRISE. IN THE INTERIOR... FOG WILL BRING LEB TO IFR.. WHILE HIE AND CON REMAIN AT MVFR. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ALL BUT HIE RETURNING TO VFR AFTER FROPA... HIE WILL REMAIN MVFR IN UPSLOPE FLOW. LONG TERM...VFR THU AND FRI. POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHOWERS SAT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER IN STEADIER RA/SN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...MODEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN AN SCA BEING NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM...CONDS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA THU INTO SAT. COASTAL STORM COULD INTENSIFY S AND E OF THE GULF OF ME SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...AND SCA LKLY WITH GALES POSSIBLE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE

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