Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 230203 AAB AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1003 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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.UPDATE... MINOR UPDATE TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WHICH ARE DROPPING SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. STILL IN THE 70S IN A LOST OF SPOTS WITH SW WINDS AROUND 5-8 MPH. THESE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF SOON ALLOWING TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT READINGS TO DROP QUICKER WITH PATCHY FOG FORMATION AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DECREASE.
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&& .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
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SATELLITE SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON/ EVENING LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL HANG AROUND TONIGHT AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRY AND MAKE THEIR WAY EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULDN`T HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. STILL LOOKING LIKE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT BUT SREF PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHLIGHTING FAR EASTERN MAINE...BAR HARBOR AND BANGOR EAST... WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS BEST. THEREFORE AM NOT TOO CONCERNED WITH A DENSE FOG EVENT DESPITE THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90 DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND AN APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND MONDAY. && .AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL SEE A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST TOWARDS EVENING. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ UPDATE...HANES

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