Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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000
FXUS61 KGYX 162254
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
654 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
The active weather pattern continues as another system crosses
tonight and Sunday bringing light rain and some mountain snow.
Breezy, cyclonic flow remains over the region behind this system
and through much of the upcoming week; temperatures are
expected to trend cooler toward seasonal averages during that
time, with snow showers at least over the mountains and
occasionally spilling toward the coast.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Any linger showers near the Midcoast continue to dissipate at
this hour. However, we cannot rule out a few more this evening
as a weak warm front continues to progress northward.
Otherwise, quiet until the next batch of precipitation arrives
from the west well after midnight which the forecast has a good
handle on. No no significant changes at this hour.
Previously...
The Cu field and isolated showers from the afternoon heating
and instability will gradually be replaced by thickening clouds
overnight as a warm front approaches the region. This warm air
advection and moisture will allow showers to enter the region
later tonight from west to east. Atmospheric profiles suggest
the ptype will be mainly rain across the region with only some
light snow across the higher elevations in the north.
Will continue the possibility of patchy fog across much of the
region as well overnight. This is supported by the latest HREF
solution. The elevated dew points will also allow for
temperatures to only fall into the 30s in most locations.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The showers and periods of steady rain will continue into Sunday
morning ahead and along an approaching cold front. Any snow will
be limited to the highest elevations in the north. Developing
partial clearing will allow for temperatures to climb well into
the 40s over southern and central areas with some 50s across
the far south.
Cold air advection and a gusty west to northwesterly flow will
allow for downslope winds along the south. Snow showers will
retreat towards the upslope regions of the northern mountains
during the night. A breeze will keep temperatures fairly uniform
with upper 20s in the north to the lower 30s in the south.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview: A cool and at times unsettled pattern is in store for much
of the extended portion of the forecast as a negative Arctic
Oscillation (AO) and positive Pacific North American Pattern (PNA)
favor broad troughiness over the Eastern U.S.
Impacts: No major weather related impacts are anticipated for the
extended portion of the forecast at this time.
Forecast Details: The forecast begins with a long wave
positively tilted 500-mb trough axis over the eastern Seaboard
with a weak area of low pressure located over southern Canada on
Monday. This area of low pressure will send a sfc cold front
southward over New England during the day with a few scattered
rain and snow showers accompanying this frontal passage. While
QPF will be light, some upslope enhancement could allow for
around an inch or so of snow accumulation, mainly across the
higher peaks. Ahead of this front, temperatures will climb well
into the 40s south of the mountains with 30s further to the
north. The front clears the coast Monday evening as the upper
level trough axis becomes negatively tilted overhead. Other than
lingering snow and rain showers across the north/mountains, the
rest of the region will remain mainly dry. Lows on Monday night
will be primarily into the 20s with highs on Tuesday into the
30s to middle 40s from north to south.
High pressure will allow for a mainly dry day on Wednesday, although
the lingering cool pool aloft does introduce a non-zero chance for
an isolated shower. Highs will be similar to those of Tuesday, 30s
across the north and lower to mid 40s south. A weak wave then looks
to cross during the Wednesday night into Thursday timeframe,
allowing for a better opportunity for scattered light showers.
Temperatures will be at or even a bit below average with lows
Thursday night potentially falling into the single digits and
teens. A more organized system is then possible towards next
weekend but forecast confidence is low at this time range.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...IFR and MVFR conditions return to the region
tonight with lowering ceilings and patchy fog. This will
continue into Sunday morning before the ceilings and
visibilities lift over southern areas to VFR. MVFR and IFR
conditions will continue across the north and continue into
Sunday night.
Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected Monday through
Thursday outside of any scattered -SHRA/SHSN. West-northwest
wind gusts may approach 20 kts each afternoon before weakening
during the evening and night. MVFR ceilings could be more
persistent at KHIE due to upslope flow.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...SCAs have been issued for all of the waters which
will continue through Sunday. Gusty westerly winds may continue
into Sunday night.
Long Term...West-northwesterly winds largely to remain below 25
kts through the period, although some gusts to around 25 kts
will be possible at times.... especially late Tuesday into early
Wednesday behind a frontal passage.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Sunday for ANZ150-152-154.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ151-
153.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Tubbs