Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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662 FXUS61 KGYX 120322 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1022 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016 .SYNOPSIS... GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT USHER IN A ANOTHER WAVE OF PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR TONIGHT. FRIDAY WILL SEE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASS TO OUR SOUTH WITH SOME SUN BUT HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LATE. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID COAST REGION WILL BRING SNOW TO THE MID COAST AREA SATURDAY. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD TEMPERATURES AND STRONG WINDS WILL BRING DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LIKELY WITH A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... 1020 PM UPDATE...JUST A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND SKY BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. OVERALL...A DRY AND COLD OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED. 735 PM UPDATE...BAND OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED MAINLY SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND COUNTY EARLIER THIS EVENING HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. LOOKED LIKE A MINI- NORLUN TROUGH THAT FOCUSED THAT BAND OF SNOWFALL. CLEARING SKIES AND COLD WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME OVERNIGHT. ALSO...A WIND CHILL WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS THAT SHOULD SEE APPARENT TEMPERATURES FALL TO 30 BELOW OR LOWER...WITH SOME BUFFER GIVEN TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE IT MAY COME CLOSE. 525 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO BETTER CAPTURE THE HEAVY SNOWBAND SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM STANDISH TO WESTBROOK TO SOUTH PORTLAND TO CAPE ELIZABETH. IT IS CONSTRICTING A BIT BUT ALSO INTENSIFYING AS OF 520 PM. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 630 BEFORE THE BAND FINALLY MOVES OUT. AN SPS WAS ISSUED AT 450 PM FOR THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE AND MAY HAVE TO BE REISSUED FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. PREVIOUSLY... COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING INTO WRN NH ATTM...AND WINDS WILL PICK UP THRU THE EVENING WITH TEMPS PLUNGING. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS EVENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS WHERE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER THRU THE EVENING...BUT EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT LATE. HAVE ISSUED WIND CHILL ADV FOR THE ZONES ALONG THE INTL BORDER AS WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT WILL STAY UP AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WILL PRODUCE WINDS CHILLS OF -20 TO -25. LOW WILL FALL TO AROUND -5 IN THE N...TO AROUND 5-10 F IN THE SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES S OF THE REGION...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED QUITE A BIT...SO IT SHOULD BE A FAIR DAY...EXCEPT FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. FRI NIGHT WE WILL BE BETWEEN TWO APPROACHING SYSTEMS...NRN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW TRACKING OUT OF ONTARIO INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND AND COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING WELL SO OF CAPE COD. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT AND BRING THE THREAT OF SOME SNOW TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER PART OF FRI NIGHT. POSSIBLE INVERTED TROUGH MAY DEVELOP LATE AND COULD BRING A STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE MID-COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THU NIGHT...BUT STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...AND MAY OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT THAN DAYBREAK. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS INDICATE A RATHER UNSETTLED PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH NEAR THE MID-COAST AREA WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY WEST OF THE TROUGH. AT THIS TIME...AM FORECASTING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FOR THE MIDCOAST AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...RESIDENTS IN THE MID COAST AREA SHOULD BE AWARE THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. AFTER THE TROUGH MOVES EAST SATURDAY EVENING...A BLAST OF COLD AIR WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -35 DEGREE RANGE LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES. THE COLD AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR MOVES EAST AND WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PATH OF THIS STORM. HOWEVER...LATEST RUNS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WILL START AS SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE AREA TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL FORECAST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT AND RAIN OR SNOW TUESDAY...WITH THE LATEST MODELS FORECASTING A CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS. COLDER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...EXPECTING VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRI EVENING. NW WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KTS AT TIMES...BUT WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR IN SN LATE FRI NIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KRKD/KAUG AND KHIE. LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW IN THE MID COAST AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AND GALES HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO SCA. THE RAPID FALL OF TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF MOD FREEZING SPRAY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS WELL. LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FREEZING SPRAY. GALES POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY. & .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MEZ012>014-018>022. WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MEZ007>009. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ007>009. NH...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NHZ006-008>010-012-013-015. WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR NHZ001>005-007-011. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NHZ001-002. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-153. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER SHORT TERM...CEMPA LONG TERM...JENSENIUS/SINSABAUGH AVIATION...CEMPA/JENSENIUS MARINE...CEMPA/JENSENIUS

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