Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 271509 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1109 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND WARM TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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11AM UPDATE... A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. HAVE ADJUSTED HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO BETTER SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR A SHOWER OR TWO UP THERE. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. 630AM UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD DECK IS ALLOWING SOME VERY PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE. UPPER TROF AXIS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH FINAL SHORTWAVE TROF SET TO CROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE AT THIS HOUR. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN PLACE ALOFT...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS TRIGGER BY TROF PASSAGE TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST. EXPECT MOST OF THESE TO BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS DOWNSLOPING WILL FURTHER DRY OUT THE COLUMN E OF THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY...BUT NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL DAY TO SPEND SOME TIME OUTDOORS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND FRIDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ARRIVING IN WESTERN ZONES BY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR VALLEY FOG AS RIDGE AXIS NEARS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A DEFINITE CHILL COMPARED TO RECENT NIGHTS...WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVERHEAD FRIDAY...NOT MUCH TO COMPLAIN ABOUT WHEN IT COMES TO THE WEATHER. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH VERY COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY ALLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY DURING THE DAY. AFTER SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH MODEL INCONSISTENCIES LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST...MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE. EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION...IF ANY...MAY DEPEND ON TIMING WITH RESPECT TO DIURNAL HEATING. AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK...STRENGTH AND EXACT POSITION WILL IMPACT MOVEMENT OF WEATHER SYSTEMS. LATEST GFS GRADUALLY BUILDS UPPER RIDGE EASTWARD. THIS WOULD RESULT IN VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF KEEPS UPPER RIDGE FARTHER WEST KEEPING THE NORTHEAST A BIT COOLER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK TROUGH AND/OR BACKDOOR FRONTS AFFECTING THE AREA. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY INCONSISTENT WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE GFS OR THE ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT ERIKA WOULD AFFECT THE REGION.
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&& .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU FRIDAY. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT IF WINDS CAN GO CALM. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MAY STAY UP TO PRECLUDE FOG. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MORNING FOG AFFECTING VALLEY LOCATIONS.
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&& .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE

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