Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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433 FXUS61 KGYX 052021 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 321 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH QUEBEC ON SATURDAY AND MAY PROVIDE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST WELL TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE A SIMILAR TRACK ON TUESDAY AND LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS BEING ERODED BY DRY AIR ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS ARE FINALLY BRINGING THE SNOW TO AN END. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS BETTER MIXING. THESE GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. BY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF MELTING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL DRIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EASTWARD THROUGH QUEBEC. COULD SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. OTHERWISE MOST OF THE AREA WILL JUST NOTICE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY BUT SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AS IT SETTLES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S NORTH AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BY TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP A SHALLOW RIDGE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. THIS STORM WILL BACK MOISTURE INTO THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON PRODUCING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES BY EVENING. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S. DEEP UPPER TROUGH SWINGING IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT WILL KICK OFF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS BUT ONCE AGAIN EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 20S. SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WILL SWING A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL ON THURSDAY AS INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR PLOWABLE SNOW IF THIS SOLUTION VERIFIES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY BECOMING VFR AS DRY AIR MOVES IN THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KT MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW BUT WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY. LONG TERM...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND COULD PROVIDE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING OFFSHORE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR GREATER MIXING OF THE LOW LEVELS LEADING TO HIGHER WIND GUSTS. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LONG TERM...AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SUNDAY MORNING WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASS NEAR THE WATERS. GALES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE OUTER WATERS.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ020>022-025>028. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ013- 014. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ018- 019-023-024. NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ010- 013-014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ151-153. GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-154.
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&& $$ KIMBLE/SINSABAUGH/HANES

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