Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 311530 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1130 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...A FEW CHANGES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. GENERALLY INCREASED POP TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG THRU THE AREA...AND EXPECT RA TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN IN THE FAR NRN ZONES. HEAVIEST RAFL POTENTIAL IS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE TRAINING CONVECTION IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. PREV DISC... AREAS OF RAIN CONTINUE DRIFT SOUTH AND WILL SLOWLY BECOME SITUATED OVER/ALONG THE COASTLINE. THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A SHORT PERIOD THIS MORNING TO TRIGGER A THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CAPE VALUES WILL PEAK OUT AT AROUND 300 J/KG BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. PRIOR TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...FORECAST MAXES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF WARM UP OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS EARLY. THEREAFTER...HAVE USED A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE TO REFLECT READINGS FALLING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...RAIN WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COASTLINE WHERE A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY SET UP A COASTAL FRONT...THEREBY ENHANCING LOW LEVEL ASCENT AND THE PRECIPITATION. THE NAM12 ACCENTUATES THE RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST MORE THAN OTHER MODELS...HOWEVER...ALL SOLUTIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OVER THE REGION. THIS IS WELL NEEDED PRECIPITATION AS WE REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS FOR RAINFALL. RAW NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE RECOVERY IN THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE JERSEY SHORE WILL KEEP A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND WEAK OVER-RUNNING GOING MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH. WILL SEE A COOL AND RAW NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 40S. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FINALLY PUSHES OFF THE JERSEY COAST AND SLOWLY HEADS EAST. EXPECT HEAVIER STEADIER RAIN TO TAPER TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TOWARD EVENING. ADDITIONAL QPF DURING THE DAY WILL BE MODEST WITH GENERALLY A QUARTER TO HALF INCH AMOUNTS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN MOST AREA REMAINING IN THE 50S. LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE MARITIMES TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. LOOKING FOR PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW IS REPLACED BY NORTHERLY WINDS. LOWS WILL AGAIN RANGE THROUGH THE 40S. SHOULD SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT HIGHS TO GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL GENERALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 60S TO NEAR 70. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN ZONES ON FRIDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER. FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOKING FOR VARIABLE CLOUDS AND GENERALLY A DRY FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR QUIET WEEKEND AND SEASONABLE TEMPS. && .AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...CEILING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER TODAY AND TONIGHT...EVENTUALLY TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE LOWEST CLOUD COVER ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. LONG TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH MONDAY. LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. && .FIRE WEATHER... HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. THEREFORE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PROBLEMATIC. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO

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