Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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695 FXUS61 KGYX 290442 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1242 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016 .SYNOPSIS...
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DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY...AS A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH WILL BE MAINLY RAIN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER LOW PASSING OFFSHORE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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1238 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT SATELLITE TRENDS AND TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS. PREV DISC... CLOUD FORECAST WILL BE THE CHALLENGE OF THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. HIGH LEVEL AND PERHAPS MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT FROM A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED OVER NORTHERN AREAS. THE BATTLE ZONE WILL CONTINUE IN BETWEEN. THE CLEAR VERSUS CLOUD COVER WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST OF OVERNIGHT LOWS. IT SHOULD BE MILD OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE...WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY...INTO THE TEENS FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY TRIGGER A SHOWER...MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATE IN THE DAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN PARTICULARLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT ANOTHER SEA BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...HOLDING THE COAST NEAR 50 DEGREES. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON...SIMILAR TO DROPPING INTO THE 40S IN MANY AREAS TODAY. WELL INLAND...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB QUICKLY THROUGH THE 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SAT BEGINS WITH HIGH PRES GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO UPPER TROF AND CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM EJECTING EWD. THERE ISN/T MUCH ROOM TO AMPLIFY WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE N...SO SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK ALONG AND S OF SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL SPREAD PRECIP THRU AT LEAST SRN NH AFTER SUN EVENING. WITH H8 FREEZING LINE STRADDLING THE FORECAST AREA...THIS WILL BE A COLD PRECIP...THOUGH THIS TIME AROUND THE SNWFL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING. THAT BEING SAID...DRIER AIR MASS AND PRECIP FALLING INTO THE COLUMN WILL WET BULB TEMPS DOWN COLDER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MOS PRODUCTS ARE LIKELY OVERPLAYING THE CLIMO CARD...AND THUS BLENDED IN A LITTLE MORE 2 M TEMP GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR MAX TEMPS SUN AND MON. WARMEST TEMPS SUN MAY ACTUALLY BE CENTRAL ME WHERE PRECIP HOLDS OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT. PRECIP REMAINS A THREAT UNTIL TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA MON NIGHT. BEYOND THE EARLY WEEK THE TROFFING OVER THE ERN CONUS LOOKS TO RELAX...ALBEIT BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COUPLE NICE DAYS MIDWEEK. AFTER THAT 28.06Z GEFS AND 28.00Z ECMWF EPS BOTH AGREE THAT SEASONABLY STRONG TROFFING REBUILDS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. THE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND UNSETTLED WX WOULD CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY AS A RESULT. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF GROUND FOG AS WELL WITH DRY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. LONG TERM...WEAK LOW PRES...COOL TEMPS...AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS STARTING LATER SUN THRU MON. CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS. TUE INTO WED VFR CONDITIONS RETURN...BUT THE LATE WEEK MAY SEE ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM BRING MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...THEREFORE NO SCAS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LONG TERM...LOW PRES DEVELOPING NEAR NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING A PERIOD OF NE FLOW TO THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS...BUT MAINLY SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 OR MORE FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS SUN INTO MON. WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER TUE. && .FIRE WEATHER... GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY...AN ONSHORE WIND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ES

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