Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KGYX 010212 AAB AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1012 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION O0VERNIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE...SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN A LINE FROM JUST E OF KCON TO KPWM RAIN IS HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH OCNL RATES IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES/HR. BACK EDGE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE COAST...THOUGH HEAVIEST RATES WILL LINGER WITHIN THIS LINE. TO EITHER SIDE OF THAT LINE...A LIGHTER RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP BASED ON RADAR TREND AND LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ONCE THIS RNFL CLEARS THE COAST...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NRN ZONES WHERE LINGERING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF S/WV TROF MAY HOLD TOGETHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AS WELL...AND ALSO WEAKEN. A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES AS OF 19Z THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL STABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN SWWD OVER TO SOUTHERNMOST NH SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE...THESE AREAS SHOULD RETAIN THE INSTABILITY /1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE/ THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE QUESTION IS DO THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA. SEVERAL OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST NH AND SOUTHERNMOST ME BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT MESOSCALE SETUP. AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH POPS...ESPECIALLY IN THIS AREA. MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY AID IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS BECOMING STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY EARLY EVENING...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE LIKELY IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR TRAINING STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERNMOST ME...SO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT LEADING TO A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/... ON MONDAY...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEPART IN THE MORNING. STILL...WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E IN TANDEM WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND A WEAK SFC FRONT IN THE VCNTY...WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN...WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MUGGY AND QUIET MONDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST DURING PRIME TIME HEATING. MODERATE CAPES AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. STRONGER CELLS MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME HAIL BUT FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE QUITE HIGH SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE HAIL. WILL SEE A HOT AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION ENDING ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH OF THE REGION FINALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. AFTER A STELLAR LATE SUMMER DAY ON THURSDAY...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY CREEP INTO THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY LATE FRIDAY TO KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY DAY. RATHER STRONG LOOKING COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AND RESULT IN LOW CONDITIONS AS WELL. MAINLY VFR EXPECTED ON MONDAY OUTSIDE OF WDLY SCT SHOWERS. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE EVE/NIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG AND COASTAL STRATUS POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD LATE AT NIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...SUB-SCA EXPECTED TUE THROUGH FRI. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.