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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 180124
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
924 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A FRONT WILL SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
---0120Z UPDATE---
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT AS THE LOW LEVELS COOL. SHOULD SEE
SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AGAIN...THE DAY SHIFT DID A GOOD JOB OF CAPTURING THIS ALREADY SO
ONLY MINOR EDITS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE ARE NEEDED.

---2200Z UPDATE---
FORECAST PACKAGE MOSTLY IN GOOD SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE
TO TWEAK TEMPERATURES A BIT TO HANDLE DIURNAL TRENDS. NO OTHER
CHANGES EXPECTED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTN AND
EARLY THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY SINCE DOWNSLOPING CONDS NOW TAKING
HOLD OVER SWRN PTNS OF THE FORECAST AREA. UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT FOR A FEW MORE HOURS FURTHER TO
THE N.

SKIES BECOME MAINLY CLEAR WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST UP IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS. TEMPS
JUST WARM ENOUGH ALONG THE CST TO PREVENT ANY ADVISORIES FOR THAT
REGION. USED A BLEND OF MATCH MET/MAV MOS FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND A FAST MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL FILL IN ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. IT WILL FEEL CHILLY AND RAW WITH A MARITIME FEEL TO THE
AIR OVER EASTERN SECTIONS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MARITIMES.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO TRIGGER A FEW AFTN -SHRA...MAINLY IN THE
FOOTHILLS REGION.

CLOUDS MAY LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT...UNLIKE THE LAST FEW NGTS. A
WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT TO OUR WEST. WITH A
MOISTURE FEED OFF THE WATER...HAVE INCLUDED LATE NIGHT SLGT CHC
-SHRA FOR SRN ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BUILDING DIRTY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND BUT UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE A LOW LEVEL
MOIST SSELY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR NEXT WEEK
AND WILL HEDGE ON POPS.  TEMPS WILL BE MILD WITH THE SLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BUT ALSO THE CHC OF SHWRS THRU MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVE THRU THE UPPER FLOW. FOR 4TH/5TH
PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID. BEYOND THE 5TH PD USED
THE ADJUSTED MEX TEMPS FOR MINS AND STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS FOR
MAX`S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR PSBL ON
SATURDAY ACROSS N/MT AREAS WHICH WOULD IMPACT HIE. THERE IS A SLGT
CHC OF A -SHRA OR TWO ON SATURDAY...THOUGH THEY MAY BE LIMITED TO
N/MTN ZONES. .

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR XCPT MAY BE BRIEFLY MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS
MONDAY INTO TUES.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONT TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. NO FLAGS UP. A SE FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE ENHANCED SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N AND E
OF OUR REGION EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
WINDS/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRU THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT MAINLY FROM THE MOIST
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO BE
MODERATE OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

POHL