Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 261304 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 904 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUES VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY SPOTS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN MOST AREAS...OR WILL SO OVER THE NEXT HOURS. LONG PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-4 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE COASTLINE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PREV DISC... ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ON THE WAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND CONTINUES TO PUMP HEAT INTO THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE...EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S AND MID 60S SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT MOISTURE MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR SO NOT LOOKING FOR TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION. HAVE GONE WITH A MIX OF MET/MAV POPS WHICH ONLY PRODUCES SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MOST AREAS. WILL BE ANOTHER HOT ONE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS THE THE CWA WED NIGHT...WITH A FEW LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING...IT LOOKS THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT SFC PUSH BEHIND IT...AND IT LIKELY TO STAY MUGGY OVERNIGHT...WITH LINGERING LOW LVL MOISTURE. WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO MIX THE DRIER AIR DOWN AFTER SUNRISE THU. 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE MARITIMES WILL INTERACT WITH CRISTOBAL ON THURSDAY...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW ALOFT MORE NE...AND COULD SEE SOME CLOUDS AND SHRA SPILL DOWN INTO THE MTS THU AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 N...TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE S. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD OF FAIR WX...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON SAT...AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. AT THIS POINT LOOK FOR SATURDAY TO STAY MAINLY DRY WITH A FAIR AMT OF SUN. BY SAT NIGHT...AND RIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WE START TO SEE A CHC OF SHRA OR STORMS...AS INITIALLY WARM FRONT MOVES THRU SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. 500 MB FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WITH MID LVL BAROLCLINIC ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF CWA...SO THE THREAT OF SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE THERE SUN THRU TUE. IF WE STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA. IF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS JUST TO OUR S...LOOK FOR ONSHORE FLOW WITH CLOUDS AND SHRA AND COOL TEMPS. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM...SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE. AT COASTAL TERMINALS WED EVE...AND SOME CHC OF FOG NEAR THE COAST LATER WED NIGHT...BTU GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THU THRU SAT...WITH VLY FOG THU AND FRI NIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM...WILL LIKE SEE WINDS DIMINISH WED NIGHT BEFORE TURNING NW ON THU...BUT SHOULD STAY BLO SCA LVLS. SHOULD GET SOME SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL...AND THIS COULD APPROACH 5-6 FT ON THU. FOR FRI AND SAT SEAS/WINDS TO REMAIN BLO SCA CRITERIA. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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