Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 240215 AAC AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 1015 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west on Sunday and will shift offshore Sunday night. A cold front will approach from the west on Monday and will cross the region Monday night. High pressure will build in from the west on Tuesday and will crest over the area on Wednesday. A weak cold front will slowly push southeast into the region Wednesday night and will stall over the region on Thursday. High pressure will build in from the north Thursday night and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 10:15 PM Update... Have adjusted PoPs and weather grids to reflect only isolated showers possible over the mountains. Additionally some stratiform rain is possible well offshore. In addition patchy, possibly dense fog will develop overnight especially in areas which received rainfall...in mountain valleys...and along the coast. Temperatures have dropped quickly behind the front thanks in part to very dry air in place. Have lowered nocturnal hourly grids several degrees and adjusted the overnight lows slightly. Most areas have a thin overcast but an area of stratus was working into the mountains from Canada. Previous Update... Line of damaging storms have moved to the south of the CWA. Drier weather is expected tonight. The severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Showers will die off for most of the CWA after sunset... with southwest regions being the last to see showers end. As they do skies will clear allowing patchy valley fog to form. Sunday a weak ridge of high pressure builds in behind the front. While temps aloft have decreased surface temperatures will remain warm with highs in the 80s. Dewpoints will decrease behind the front. With the weakening pressure gradient a sea breeze should develop keeping the immediate coasting line in the 70s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A progressive pattern will develop for next week as the jet stream moves a series of waves through southern canada.Monday the next short wave comes in dropping a front through the region. The front once again looks to coincide with peak heating which will allow for the potential for severe storms. Very warm and humid airmass will be in place ahead of this system with daytime highs ranging through the 80s north and upper 80s to mid 90s south. After the front moves through Monday night a period of high pressure builds in for Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly sunny skies will prevail with a nice seabreeze again forming for the coast. As we move towards the end of the week forecast confidence decreases markedly. Previous deterministic models had hinted at a large wet system moving in for Thursday and Friday, however current guidance is all over the map with a low center ranging from the great lakes to off the coast. While wet seems to be the trend, the details are too uncertain yet to put much weight in any of the heavier rainfall scenarios and have gone with just a 50 PoP. Beyond the wet end of the week guidance hints at a sunny weekend... however put low confidence in all of this extended forecast for the moment. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...Storms have ended. After sunset look for VFR through the weekend except for patchy LIFR/IFR fog tonight into early tomorrow morning over the CT River Valley, near HIE and LEB, and along the coasts. Long Term...VFR Sunday night. VFR on Monday with areas of MVFR ceilings and vsby in Showers and thunderstorms. VFR Tuesday and Wednesday && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA. Long Term...No problems noted. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Hanes SHORT TERM...Curtis LONG TERM...Ekster

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