Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 191503 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1003 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGHS BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT OCEAN EFFECT SNOW. DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHICH COULD BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POORLY HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL STRATOCU DECK BANKED AROUND THE MTNS AND SPILLING AROUND EITHER SIDE. PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE RULE FOR SKY COVER TODAY. SOME CLEARING IS NOTED N OF THE BORDER...BUT IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE ENCROACHING INTO THE CWFA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... NOT A WHOLE LOT GOING ON IN THE NEAR TERM...HOWEVER THE CLOUD FORECAST HAS PROVEN TRICKY. DOWNSLOPING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IS CAUSING CLEARING SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE ELSEWHERE THE STRATUS IS GOING TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME GOING ANYWHERE AS IT GETS TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION WITH RIDGE MOVING IN. COMBINE THAT WITH LOW SUN ANGLE...AND AREAS AWAY FROM THE DOWNSLOPING WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY UNTIL DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FRIDAY NIGHT AND TEMPS WILL DROP AS WE SHOULD RADIATE NICELY. STILL THE COLDEST SPOTS SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH WHILE WITH THE LACK OF SNOW COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO COLD. SATURDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ACTIVITY OFF SHORE SATURDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING...IN BOTH NRN AND SRN STREAM...OVER THE ATLANTIC BY MID-LATE WEEK...WHICH WILL BASICALLY KEEP THE COLD AIR TO OUR N AND W...BUT WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM TO TRACK TO OUR WEST AS WELL AND LIKELY BRING WINDY CONDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WED AND WED NIGHT. TO START OUT...SFC HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER NRN ME...WITH EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE HIGH PRODUCING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MODELS CONTINUE TO SPIT OUT A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF QPF OVER SEACOAST NH AND MERRIMACK VLY REGION...AS WELL AS EASTERLY UPSLOPE AREAS AS FAR INLAND AS THE MONADNOCKS...MAINLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FOR NOW CALLING THESE FLURRIES /OR SPRINKLES EVEN RIGHT ON THE COAST/...BUT COULD TURN OUT TO BE MORE OF OCCNL VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMS. ELSEWHERE..LOOK FOR PARTLY - MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE N TO MID-UPPR 30S ON THE COAST AND MERRIMACK VLY. MONDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY..BUT M/CDY...AS WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR S. BY TUE...WILL SEE 500MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST GO THRU SEVERAL CYCLES OF DEEPENING AND FILLING AS ENERGY CONTINUES TO DIVE INTO IT...EVENTUALLY LIFTING NE INTO QUEBEC THU INTO FRI. WILL FIRST SEE A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP LATE TUE INTO TUE EVENING...AS WEAK SFC LOW MOVES TO OUR NW...BUT MAIN EVENT WILL BE WED INTO THU AS SFC LOW OVER OHIO VLY BOMBS OUT AS IT TRACKS NWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS TRY TO PRODUCE SFC LOW TO THE EAST OVER MID-ATLANTIC REGION...BUT ANY LOW THAT DOES DEVELOP LOOKS TO TRACK TO OUR WEST AS IT GETS PULLED BACK TOWARD TO THE STACKING MAIN SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLD AIR AWAY...AND BRING A MAINLY RAIN EVENT TO THE REGION WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP FALLING WED INTO WED NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER SNOWS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY RAIN FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA. ALSO...WILL BE WINDY AS LOW LVL WAA JET DEVELOPS EAST OF THE TRIPLE POINT WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS WED COULD APPROACH 50 IN SOME SPOTS AS THE WARM AIR WORKS IN. LOOK FOR DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO WORK IN FROM THE SW BEHIND THE SYSTEM WITH PRECIP ENDING AND PARTIAL CLEARING. JUST THE THREAT OF RA/SN SHOWERS IN GUSTY WEST FLOW WITH HIGHS STILL ABV NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY AND MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...ALTHOUGH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW COULD PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDS AT KPSM AND MAYBE KMHT ON SUNDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...THERE MAY BE A FEW WIND GUST UP TO 25 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK...BUT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EASE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SO DECIDED TO CANCEL SCA. NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. LONG TERM...WATERS REMAIN GENERALLY QUIET SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE. HIGH POTENTIAL FOR GALES WED NIGHT INTO THU. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO

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