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000
FXUS61 KGYX 200232
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1032 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system crosses through the region tonight and
tomorrow, bringing rain especially late tonight and Saturday
morning. After steady rain exits, scattered showers and blustery
winds are expected as drier and cooler air filters into New
England. Quiet, mild, and dry weather returns through early
next week... becoming quite dry and gusty on Monday. Low
pressure approaches the region toward mid-week, likely bringing
the next chance for widespread rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM...As the WAA showers exit to the east, there is a
several hour break until the showers associated with the cold
front move in, and I have adjusted the grids to account for
this. Otherwise just minor changes based on current conditions.

755 PM...A few tweaks to POPS and Sky grids, mainly to cover
through this evening based on current obs. POPS a little lower
through the evening, as any light precip having a hard time
making it through the dry air mass, with better forcing later
tonight, should be enough to produce steadier rain which will
help moisten the lower levels.

Previously...Tonight will be fairly mild and humid as southerly
flow continues ahead of a frontal system tracking into New
England, with lows in the 40s. Light rain will come in rounds,
first with a warm front later this evening... and again with an
initial, weak cold front after midnight. Although initial
showers this evening into the overnight will be fairly light and
widely scattered, more widespread stratiform rains are expected
to develop in the early morning hours closer to the coast. This
occurs as the front reaches the coast and amplifies into a
baroclinic leaf... and has trended a bit more bullish with
rainfall amounts, with a stripe of around 0.25-0.4" extending
from southern New Hampshire to the Midcoast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Saturday starts rainy along the coast, although stronger
mixing will be well underway further north and west as cooler
and drier air filters in behind the initial cold front. Thus we
can expect clearing, or at least lifting ceilings, from west to
east through the morning hours... with conditions along the
Midcoast likely to remain a bit raw into the afternoon.

Lapse rates will steepen significantly through the day
Saturday, leading to gusty west winds across the area.
Statistical guidance favors wind gusts mainly in the 20-25 kt
range, however a look at BUFKIT profiles suggest that with
adequate momentum transfer stronger gusts in excess of 30 kts
(35 mph) will be possible. There will be plenty of mid-level
moisture available combined with cyclonic flow aloft, a
secondary cold front, and those steep lapse rates to produce
scattered showers especially in the afternoon which will be the
best bet for mixing those stronger gusts to the surface. With
freezing levels falling to below 4 kft, would expect some
graupel in the stronger cells that form as well. Otherwise, the
strong mixing and clearing will allow temperatures to rebound
well into the 50s or low-60s in spite of the cooler airmass
advecting in from the northwest.

Precipitation chances are expected to diminish fairly quickly
Saturday evening and overnight as flow aloft turns more zonal
and surface heating is lost. Winds will likely remain a touch
breezy, not strong enough for any sort of impact but likely
strong enough to keep temperatures from cooling past the 30s
overnight under clearing skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overview...

A broad trough extending into the Northeast brings seasonably
cool and dry conditions into midweek on northwesterly flow.
Conditions likely become unsettled again by Wednesday into
Thursday as a slow moving front progresses through New England.

Details...

A weak area of low pressure passes to the north late Sunday and
Monday, bringing the chance for some showers to northern areas
and the higher terrain Sunday night and Monday. South of the
mountains, conditions look to remain dry. A weak and dry front
passes through the area Sunday night, bringing dry conditions
and breezy northwesterly winds, along with cool temperatures.
South of the mountains, fire weather is likely to be a concern,
while temps in the 30s and 40s through the mountains and
foothills lessens these concerns.

Temperatures and humidity begin to rebound by Tuesday as
southerly flow returns ahead of an approaching cold front. High
pressure will crest the region early in the day Tuesday and
strengthen as it moves out south of the Canadian Maritimes.

A slow moving front pushes into New England on Wednesday and
into Wednesday night, with an area of low pressure likely to
develop. How organized and significant this system becomes
remains the subject of some uncertainty, but regardless showers
at least look likely across the forecast area. With high
pressure centered to the north across Quebec, some precip is
likely to switch to snow by Wednesday night, particularly across
northwestern locations and the higher terrain.

The Thursday-Friday time remains uncertain at this point as the
low pressure system will be slow to depart to the east, but
strong high pressure will push in from the west. There is likely
to be a sharp gradient from clear skies and warmer temps to the
west, with cool and damp conditions to the east. Whether this
occurs at night or during the daytime on Thursday remains
uncertain, but will result in two very different outcomes
depending on the placement of these features. We`ll have to wait
at least a few more days before the details become more clear
on this.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Predominantly VFR today with S/SE flow generally
AOB 20 kts. MVFR CIGs become more likely by around midnight in
the west and expand in coverage overnight with a period of IFR
likely south of the mountains and especially toward the coast.
Flight conditions trend to VFR from west to east after daybreak,
with CIGs along the Midcoast potentially hanging on to IFR/MVFR
restrictions until the afternoon. Winds turn SW/W and become
gusty as CIGs lift, with gusts generally up to 20-25 kts. Higher
gusts and brief restrictions are possible in -SHRA. Gusts
diminish with prevailing VFR, except perhaps MVFR at KHIE, Sat
evening.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are expected at most
terminals from Sunday through Tuesday, except at HIE where a
period of MVFR ceilings is likely late Sunday and Sunday night.
Restrictions are likely on Wednesday as showers and lower
ceilings return, with MVFR to IFR conditions likely. Improvement
is likely on Thursday, but a return to VFR may take until
Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...SE flow today builds out of the S tonight,
remaining AOB 20 kts with seas around 2-4 ft. Winds turn more
SW Sat, then W Sat night with a cold front crossing. Predominant
winds will stay below SCA thresholds, however a few gusts 25-30
kts will be possible.

Long Term...A weak front crosses the waters Sunday night, with
high pressure building in behind the front for Monday and
Tuesday. SCA conditions are possible in northwesterly flow on
Monday. The high moves east of the waters by Tuesday as a cold
front approaches from the west, with SCA conditions possible in
southwesterly flow Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Casey/Cempa
SHORT TERM...Casey
LONG TERM...Clair
AVIATION...
MARINE...