Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 291537 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1137 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TODAY AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE...MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS AREA OF MARINE STRATUS MOVING SWWD THRU THE GULF OF ME THIS AFTERNOON. NARRE GUIDANCE STRONGLY FAVORS THIS REACHING COASTAL ZONES BY 22-00Z. LATEST HRRR HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON LOW CIGS BY 16Z...AND BRINGS THESE INTO THE COAST SLIGHTLY EARLIER...21Z...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HOWEVER HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG FOR THE OVERNIGHT. PREV DISC... QUIET CONDITIONS TODAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND LOWERING DEW POINTS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S...HOWEVER AN ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... A RETURN OF FOG MAY BE PROBLEMATIC LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OFF THE GULF OF MAINE. A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS STRONG FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TOWARDS THE COASTLINE WITH TIME. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...WITH MODEST DESTABILIZATION OVER THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY SHOULD YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS REGION FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE FRONT SLOWS OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL DOMINATE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK AND BEYOND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC MONDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION ON TUESDAY WILL SPIN UP LOW PRESSURE ON STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BUT CLOUDS AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH RETURN FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...PATCHY FOG WITH LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH AREAS OF FOG AND LOWERING VISIBILITIES AND CEILING ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE IFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERNMOST LOCATIONS EARLY IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON MODEL SOLUTION FOR LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS WITH THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LONG TERM...WINDS/SEAS MAINLY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. && .FIRE WEATHER... DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES TODAY. HOWEVER RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND GREEN UP SHOULD MINIMIZE FIRE DANGER. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO

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