Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 240226 AAC AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1026 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL AND DRY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE COME THURSDAY...BUT AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS THAT ITS EFFECTS WILL ONLY REACH INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND COOL CLEAR NIGHTS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MAY PASS INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPDATE...RAISED MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL PREVENT LOW TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO COLD BEFORE FOG FORMS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BLEED TOWARDS THE REGION TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC...SO ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A FAIR WEATHER NIGHT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AND THIS MAY PROVIDE FOR A FEW HOURS OF BROKEN CLOUDINESS. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TO FROSTY LEVELS OVERNIGHT DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD LATE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL TO FOG IN HAS MADE ME DECIDE AGAINST A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR ZONES WHERE THE SEASON ENDED YET. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO INTERIOR CUMBERLAND COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER IN STORE. SOME LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF BROKEN CLOUDINESS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT DAY FOR MOST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A POSSIBLE HICCUP ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE MAY PUSH SOME PRECIP IN FOR THE SOUTHERN MOST AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE MOMENT IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGH OVERHEAD WILL HOLD IT OFF...BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO SEE HOW IT UNFOLDS OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS. AT MOST JUST GOING WITH SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH TIME. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S DURING THE DAY BY THE FRIDAY AND SOME 80S LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. I BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED FOR THIS TIME FRAME...AS EURO ENSEMBLES SHOW A MEAN OF ABOUT 80 FOR THE AREA AND BASED ON T850 OF 15-18C I BELIEVE THAT HIGHS IN THE 80S IS CERTAINLY WARRANTED...SO GET OUT THE SURF BOARDS AND HEAD TO THE BEACH TO ENJOY THE RETURN OF SUMMER FOR A FEW DAYS. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE STILL SHOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MAY CROSSING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT THE SUMMERLIKE WEATHER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AND A SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT GOOD NEWS IS THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER QUITE NICELY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHER THAN THE USUAL RIVER VALLEY FOG...WE ARE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER PATCHY DENSE LATE NIGHT FOG MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOME OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY AT LEB AND HIE. ALSO WATCHING THE CHANCE FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING IN ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD PROVIDE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH SOME CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS...HOWEVER RIGHT NOW THE THINKING IS THAT NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO

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