Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 202049 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 349 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MAINE SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TURN ONSHORE. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW OVER SOUTHERN REGIONS RIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE COAST TUESDAY...WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM GRADUALLY ORGANIZING WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AROUND CHRISTMAS EVE INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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SC CONTINUES TO POUR IN OFF THE GULF OF MAINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS PER LATEST RADAR TRENDS. HOWEVER...SOME PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE SEACOAST OF NH THIS EVENING. 12Z MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW THESE SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO DROP A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW IN THE MHT THROUGH PSM CORRIDOR. WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES UP NORTH...EXPECT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. SOME AREAS IN THE NORTH WERE BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE PERSISTENT OVER SRN NH EARLY SUNDAY DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT...WITH DRYING OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN AREAS MAY BRING A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO TO THE MIDCOAST AREA OF MAINE. SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAK SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ALONG THE COAST AND SOME LOW CLOUDINESS. THIS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS ALONG THE COAST IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WHILE THE MOUNTAINS DROP OFF INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS.
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&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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THE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY INTO TUE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPEST ALONG THE COAST. SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE OR EVEN SOME FRZG DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE MON AND MON NIGHT. ON TUE THE WARMER ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENS AS THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING A SELY FLOW TO INCREASE...SO CAN`T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT IMTERMITTENT PCPN. THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE THE ONSET OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION LATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT WHERE THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AS A STRONG WAA PATTERN DEVELOPS BEING ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PASSES WELL TO OUR W AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. QPF TOTALS FOR LATE TUE INTO THU COULD BE IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE AND DUE TO VERY WARM AIR THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS MAY ARISE IN THE HEADWATERS BY WED NIGHT OR THU DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOWMELT AND THE HEAVY RAINS. ALL MODELS AGREE ON MILD TEMPS...USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS. SYSTEM FINALLY WINDS DOWN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE WEAKER APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH ALSO LOOKS WARM AND WET.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS...WITH POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IN ANY SNOW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERNMOST NH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LONG TERM...POSSIBLE PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR AT COASTAL TERMINALS MONDAY AS INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF OF ME. MVFR LIKELY TO HOLD TUE INTO TUE NIGHT...LOWERING TO IFR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO THU IN RAIN...WITH INCREASING E-SE WINDS WED.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...A FEW WIND GUSTS CONTINUE JUST BELOW 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WAVES 4` OR LOWER...THEREFORE NO FLAGS IN THE NEAR TERM. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW FROM THE NORTHEAST. LONG TERM...STRONG LOW PRES WILL MOVE WELL TO THE WEST AND WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE TO GALES TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED WITH BORDERLINE STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. SEAS COULD BUILD IN EXCESS OF 15 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY WED NIGHT. GUIDANCE LOOKS LOW ON BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THESE TYPE OF EVENTS.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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