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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 140725
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
325 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE NEAR LONG ISLAND TODAY. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY TRIGGERING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BRIEFLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH IS SLOWLY
ROTATING OFF THE MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
COASTLINES THIS MORNING. CUTOFF TO PRECIPITATION IS ABRUPT WITH
PORTLAND RECEIVING ONLY A TRACE AND WELLS AND AREAS SOUTH
RECEIVING A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE. THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING WITH THE MAIN LOBE OF VORTICITY/HEAVIER RAIN STAYING
SOUTH OF PORTLAND. CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND HOWEVER WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE
DAY. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WILL ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. BRIEF WEST WINDS
WILL HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
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SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO AROUND 50. AFTER A SUNNY START
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AS A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES
FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE
NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SW MAINE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW QUICK DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST CROSSES
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH SHARPENS TO OUR WEST AND
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. WIND FIELDS APPEAR UNLIKELY TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED.

COMPUTER MODELS DIFFER ON HOW SHARPLY TO DEVELOP THE TROUGH WHICH
CROSSES THE AREA IN THE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
THE RESULTING PROGRESSION OF SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IS
AFFECTED BY THESE DIFFERENCE AND THUS THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOMES UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
OR TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND BRING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO AN END. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

TEMPERATURES STAY FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY NEAR NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY WHEN WARMER AIR PUSHES
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. BUT
CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE 80 DEGREE
MARK AND AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS CONTRIBUTING TO LIFR STRATUS
DECKS. KCON AND KPSM WILL HAVE RAIN THROUGH MID MORNING.
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF OTHER
TERMINALS...HOWEVER TERRAIN IS HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE TO RAIN
SHOWERS NEAR KHIE THIS MORNING. ALL TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
LATER THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER ARE
LIKELY EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING EXCEPT KRKD...BUT
CEILINGS SHOULD STAY VFR.

LONG TERM...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS COULD BRING CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OVER INLAND
AREAS AND AWAY FROM COASTAL TERMINALS ON MONDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN TO IFR ON TUESDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT HAS BEEN DROPPED AS SEAS AND WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED.

LONG TERM...WIND FIELD REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NOT PRODUCE STRONG WINDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

HANES/KIMBLE