Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 021051 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 551 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SYNOPSIS... BREEZY BUT RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MARITIME PROVINCES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT PUSHING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION...AND PRODUCING A PERIOD OF SNOW AND MIXED RAIN OR SNOW ALONG THE COAST. AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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550 AM...MADE SOME UPDATES TO POPS...MOSTLY TO COVER THE WEAK AREA OF SN OVER ERN ZONES...THAT SEEMS TO BE ORIGINATING FROM SOME LOW TO MID LVL CONVERGENCE...WEAK 850MB FRONT...AND WEAK SFC WIND BOUNDARY. 00Z NAM-DNG SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THIS AS IT BUILDS A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND THEN SHIFTS EWD. OTHERWISE UPSLOPE SN LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS THIS MORNING...AS WEAK 850 MB WAVE MOVING THRU NOW...AND THEN WILL SEE 500MB FOLLOW LATER THIS MORNING. PREVIOUSLY...FOR THE MOST PART...THE FINAL BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE ERN ZONES BY 09Z. 500 MB TROUGH AXIS IS HANGING BACK AND WILL CROSS THE NRN CWA BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHSN TO THE MTNS AND WILL BE ENHANCED BY UPSLOPE LATER THIS MORNING INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON. ACTUALLY...MESO MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A FEW SHSN OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE ERN ZONES AROUND MIDDAY WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL....ALTHOUGH DON`T REALLY EXPECT ANY ACCUMS HERE. HOWEVER IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES IN THE LOCALLY FAVORED AREAS. DESPITE ALL THE COLD THIS YEAR...UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT HAVE BEEN QUITE LIMITED AS MOST OF THESE 500MB SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN DEEP OR CLOSED OFF TROUGHS WHICH DRAG ALL THE ENERGY TO OUR EAST AND PULL DRY AIR IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE MAIN SYSTEM...LEAVING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS OR INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE UPSLOPE. ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND...AT LEAST FOR M/CDY CONDS THRU THE MORNING...BEFORE THE WINDS KICK IN AND THE DOWNSLOPE BEGINS WHICH SHOULD CLEAR THINGS OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD WARM UP NICELY HERE AS WELL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE [PRES GRADIENT HOLDS UP THRU THE EVENING HOURS...AND THE BREEZY CONDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING BEFORE THEY START TO DIMINISH AS THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR S. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN AND SHOULD SEE SOME OF THE SHELTERED DECOUPLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO IN THE N...AND SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABV ELSEWHERE. ON TUESDAY THE HIGH WILL PASS JUST TO OUR S IN THE MORNING AND THAN SHIFT OFF SHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW LIGHT...AND WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM HIGHS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE 20S. PRECIP WILL LKLY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...BUT A LITTLE LIGHT SN COULD BREAK OUT IN SW NH FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... IN SHORT...A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THE WESTERN RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS AND MOVES ONSHORE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS...WHILE WE SEE LINGERING TROFINESS HERE IN THE EAST AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...PUNCTUATED BY PERIODIC BRIEF WARM UPS. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN IMPULSE RACING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NEW ENGLAND. A QUICK OVERRUNNING EVENT WITH LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SCATTERED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DRAG TRAILING WARM AND COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ERALY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...COULD STILL SEE SOME MVFR THRU ABOUT SUNRISE...AND MAYBE LOWER IN FOG AT KCON...BUT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD IMPROVE VFR AFTER SUNRISE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KHIE...WHICH COULD LINGER AT MVFR THOUGH TODAY...AND MAY GO LOWER BRIEFLY IS SHSN. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD EXPECT VFR TONIGHT AND TUE. LONG TERM... TUE NIGHT - WED...MVFR WITH LCL IFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION. THU...SCT MVFR IN MTN SNOW SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...HAVE EXTENDED THE GALES THRU THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS THE PRES GRADIENT LOOKS TO HOLD A LITTLE LONGER...ESPECIALLY E OF CASCO BAY. BUT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY TUE MORNING. AS THE WINDS PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND THE TEMPS DROPS THIS EVE...LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FZ SPRAY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. LONG TERM... TUE NIGHT - WED...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THU - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153. GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150- 152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM...CEMPA LONG TERM...SCHWIBS AVIATION... MARINE...

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