Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 141453 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1053 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD TODAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1045 AM...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO MODIFY TEMPS AND WIND A BIT BASED ON CURRENT CONDS. ALSO MODIFIED SKY AS WELL AS THE UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS ARE CLEARLY DELINEATED IN THE NW FLOW...WITH FAIRLY CLOUDY CONDS N ND W OF THE WHITES AND MAHOOSUCS. ALSO SEEING SOME CLOUDS IN YORK COUNTY IN CONVERGENCEAREA DOWNWIND OF PRESIDENTIALS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT MADE IT TO THE COAST AS OF 3AM THIS MORNING. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BEHIND IT...HOWEVER NW FLOW WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE REGIONS. SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS DOWNSLOPING WILL PREVAIL AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINDS MAY ALSO BE A BIT GUSTY UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BEST MIXING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THEN GETS WASHED OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL PLUMMET TEMPERATURE DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST ZONES. THERE MAY STILL BE A BATTLE IN SOME AREAS THAT WILL FOG OUT FIRST...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY. IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT AREAS OF FROST WILL PERSIST IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE ADVISORY MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE EXTENDED TODAY INTO INTERIOR YORK COUNTY...AS CURRENT LOWS ARE FORECASTED IN THE MID 30S AND PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE YORK COUNTY OUT FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A SHARP COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD UNIFORM RAINFALL EVENT. PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FLOODING...AND INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED. THEREFORE HAVE NOT INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MONDAY NIGHT`S LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES. WEST WINDS ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO EDGE IN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. REINFORCING COLD AIR ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 0 DEGREES C IN THE MOUNTAINS THEREAFTER FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND LOWER TO MID 60S FARTHER SOUTH. THE EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE FAR SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE WARMTH WILL HANG ON A BIT LONGER. EXPECTING JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE EDGING OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING FOG AND STRATUS THIS MORNING IN THE CT RIVER VALLEY WITH IFR CONDITIONS FIRST THING THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.. LONG TERM...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN RAIN SHOWERS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN FOG AND LINGERING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE VFR. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL GET CLOSE TO SCA FOR A BRIEF TIME THIS MORNING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW 25KTS AND DUE TO THE SHORT WINDOW OF TIME THAT THEY MAY OCCUR IN...I DECIDED THAT AN SCA WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. LONG TERM...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SEAS AND WINDS RESPOND TO A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE WATERS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012. NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ001>009. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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