Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 180441 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1241 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... UPDATED TO INCREASE THE CHC OF SHRA ACROSS N/MT ZONES OVERNIGHT PER LATEST RADAR LOOP. ADJUSTED SKY COVER PER LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS DOWN A BIT OVER SRN ZONES AND UP SLIGHTLY N/MT AREAS PER LATEST OBS...WITH MORE CLOUDS N/MT ZONES AND LESS CLOUDS OVER REST OF FCST AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE N/MT AREAS WITH NEAR 60 POSSIBLE SE NH. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... MONDAY WILL SEE THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE NORTH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN AS WELL MAKING FOR A NICE DRY DAY. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL KEEP THE JET STREAM AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. LOOKING AT A MUCH COOLER NIGHT MONDAY AS THE DRIER COOLER AIRMASS WILL HAVE ESTABLISHED ITSELF BY THIS POINT. SOME LOWER 40S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...WITH MID 40S REACHING FRYEBURG...SANFORD...AND OTHER FAVORED COOL SPOTS. OTHER LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN EVOLVING BLOCKING PATTERN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ORIENTATION AND FLOW AROUND THE BLOCK. THIS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...IF THE OCEAN LOW THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING BECOMES SUFFICIENTLY STRONG...IT WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ANY PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/LIGHT SHOWERS MAY KEEP MVFR CEILINGS IN PLACE AT KHIE AND POSSIBLY KLEB. WEST WINDS WILL HELP SCOUR OUT MOISTURE SOMEWHAT BUT KAUG...KRKD...KLEB AND KHIE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR TO EVEN IFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. WEST TO NORTH WINDS ARRIVE BY MORNING LIFTING CEILINGS. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF MORNING FOG. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA. INCREASED WINDS A BIT AND ADJUSTED SEAS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD. LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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