Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 231428 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1028 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Drier air has briefly filtered into the area from the north for today. However...clouds will return tonight and Tuesday along with an increasing chance of showers as low pressure off the Delmarva Peninsula moves north into the Gulf of Maine. A trailing cold front will slowly cross the region Wednesday through Wednesday night and will stall over southern New England Thursday. High pressure will build in from the north during Thursday. A frontal system will bring unsettled weather Friday and for the start of the holiday weekend. && 14z update... Quick update to adjust temp/td/sky grids. Temperatures already running several degrees high than forecast so have made adjustments based on current obs. Cloud cover wrapping in fromm the east generally falling apart over mid coast areas and expext these clouds to continue diminishing through early afternoon. No other changes planned attm. Previous discussion... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 618 AM...minor ESTF update to incorporate the 10z mesonet into near term grids. PREV DISC... At 06z...a 1002 millibar low was centered near the southern tip of Nova Scotia. A 1010 millibar high was centered near Lake Huron. The northerly circulation around the Nova Scotia low has temporarily drawn some drier air southward into the forecast area from Quebec Province. Goes imagery showed mainly clear skies across the area. The light winds and mainly clear skies was allowing areas of fog and stratus to form across interior valley locations. For today...skies will average partly to mostly sunny with the light synoptic flow turning onshore by afternoon into a developing seabreeze. Highs today will be in the 70s to lower 80s...with the warmth tempered a bit near the coast in the onshore flow. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Clouds will spread northward into the area tonight as the upper low and surface reflection off the Delmarva Peninsula begin to drift northward with scattered showers arriving late tonight and for the day on Tuesday along with noticeably cooler temperatures. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Any showers should dissipate Tuesday evening as diurnal heating shuts off and low pressure pulls away. Another short wave trough approaching from the northwest will drive another cold front across the region Wed and Wed night. This front may be accompanied by showers and a few thunderstorms. Nice and warm weather is expected on Thursday as a dry air mass advects in from the north. Thereafter, maritime high pressure nosing in from New Brunswick will set the stage for cool and perhaps cloudy days Friday and Saturday along with chances for showers and perhaps some elevated thunderstorms as short wave troughs move through. Thereafter the various models differ on whether or not the dense maritime airmass moves out for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend into next week. This will mean the difference between summer-like conditions arriving or a continuation of chilly and showery air mass remaining due to onshore flow. We`ll have to wait and see. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Short Term /through Tuesday/...Areas of mvfr and lcl ifr this am in valley stratus and fog...otw vfr expected. Lcl mvfr Psbl again tonight across mtn valleys in stratus and fog. Areas of mvfr Psbl tuesday in -shra. Long Term...Local MVFR to IFR conditions in fog Tuesday night otherwise VFR. VFR conditions are expected Wed outside of scattered showers and thunderstorms. VFR Thu with lower conditions possible Fri. && .MARINE... Short Term /through Tuesday/...Swell with the offshore low will create marginal small craft conditions today outside the bays. The current SCA has been converted to an SCA for hazardous seas with the marine package this morning. Long Term...Relatively tranquil winds and seas expected Tue night through Fri with sub-SCA conditions expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns expected. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150-152-154. && $$

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