Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 302354 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 754 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...STALLING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 745 PM UPDATE...FORECAST GENERALLY ON TRACK AS 500 MB TROUGH PASSES JUST TO THE N OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND SETTING OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA TO OUR N AND W... A FEW OF WHICH HAVE GRAZED OUR FAR NRN CWA. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THESE STORMS WELL THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE USED THEM AS A GUIDE FOR POPS TONIGHT...MAINLY ADJUSTING THE ARRIVAL OF POPS BACK BY AN HOUR OR TWO THIS EVENING. BEST CLUSTER OF CELLS EXITING THE ADIRONDACKS AND CROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VLY ATTM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NRN TIER OF ZONES THIS EVENING...WITH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA REMAIN DRY THRU MIDNIGHT. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THESE STORMS WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST...BUT STILL COULD PRODUCE A SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND DECENT AMT OF LIGHTNING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL SHIFT INTO CENTRAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COASTAL ZONES CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. PREVIOUSLY...CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S. A CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THIS REGION...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NY CAPITAL REGION. THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE INTO NH ZONES IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL TAKE LONGER TO ARRIVE IN THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ANY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE DELAYING UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z. UNTIL DAY TIME HEATING WANES THE THREAT IS THERE FOR A STRONGER STORM OR TWO...WITH DMGG WIND THE MAIN THREAT. WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS FOR THESE STORMS THRU ABOUT 01Z. WITH POOR LAPSE RATES ALOFT...LOSS OF HEATING WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. WINDS TURNING MORE SWLY WILL KEEP THE BULK OF IT OFF SHORE...BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST SOME MAY BE ABLE TO WORK BACK INTO THE MIDCOAST REGION LATE THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO LOW PROBABILITY TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... BY EARLY SUN COLD FRONTAL PRECIP WILL BE ARRIVING NEAR THE COAST. WINDS TURN NLY BEHIND IT...AND TEMPS WILL BEGIN FALLING AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N. EXPECTING COOL TEMPS...ESPECIALLY WITH WIDESPREAD PCPN OVER THE AREA. IT IS GOING TO BE AN UGLY END OF MAY WITH COOL TEMPS AND PLENTY OF RA. CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS DO INDICATE THUNDER REDEVELOPING AGAIN MID MORNING SUN...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN THE GRIDS. TSTMS WILL BE MUCH LESS LIKELY OVERNIGHT SUN...THOUGH RA WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY FOR SRN AND WRN ZONES. THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF BREAK AT SOME POINT DURING THIS PERIOD...WHILE A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT TO THE W AND DRIFTS TOWARDS THE AREA BY EARLY MON. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... WELCOME RAIN COMING TO THE AREA AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BATTLES WITH VERY WARM AND MOISTURE LADEN AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH. HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ANF THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR MONDAY BY 5 TO 8 DEGREES AND THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH AS MODELS ARE SHOWING HIGH TEMPS OF AROUND 50 WITH A GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND. RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. SUNNY SKIES RETURN WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE TROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR AS SHOWERS/TSTMS APPROACH THE NRN ZONES THIS EVENING. COAST SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO THE LATE EVENING WITH SLOW FRONTAL MOVEMENT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT COASTAL FOG/STRATUS TRIES TO WORK BACK INTO COASTAL ME THIS EVENING...BUT SWLY WINDS SHOULD KEEP THIS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MIDCOAST/KRKD IF ANYTHING. WIDESPREAD MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THRU SUN...AS RA OVERSPREADS THE REGION. LONG TERM...EXPECT IFR/LIFR MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN RAIN. VFR RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING OVER 5 FT. BAYS MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS TODAY...BUT GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SEE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. FLOW BECOMES NELY SUN INTO MON...BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A STIFF EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND. && .FIRE WEATHER... SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL ZONES. WETTING RAINS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH MID WEEK. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE... FIRE WEATHER...

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