Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 100251 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 951 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... TONIGHT WEAK LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... 945 PM UPDATE: SKIES HAVE GONE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA SO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH CLOUD FORECAST. BECAUSE OF THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED SO MADE MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE MANY OF THE CURRENT TEMPS WERE ALREADY BELOW FORECAST LOWS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE POLAR VORTEX BEGINS TO DROP DOWN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. BEFORE THIS OCCURS THOUGH A FEW MORE RIPPLES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SHOWERS WILL MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE NORTHWESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS NORTH. ACROSS THE SOUTH READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND FREQUENT AS A WEST TO EAST SURFACE TROUGH SHARPENS ACROSS THE REGION. THROUGH THIS 36 HOUR TIME PERIOD WE ARE LOOKING AT MAYBE AN INCH TO TWO INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IT WILL BE MORE LIKE 3 INCHES. THIS WILL BE MORE NUISANCE SNOWFALL THAN ANYTHING ELSE. IT WILL STILL BE A DRY SNOW BUT NOT AS DRY AS MONDAYS SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH. THERE MAY BE A 35 DEGREE READING ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... THURSDAY BEGINS WITH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FIRMLY UNDER A LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. NO MAJOR STORMS ON THE IMMEDIATE HORIZON... BUT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS A BIT INTERESTING THOUGH AS AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ITS LOOKING LIKE WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRETTY GUSTY WINDS AND COLD WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FALL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MINUS TEN TO MINUS TWENTY DEGREE RANGE. THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR MONDAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY LIFTING AS CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HASN`T GONE ANYWHERE SO EXPECT LOW CEILINGS AND FOG TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS DROP. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR KHIE AND KLEB. LONG TERM...EXPECT ONLY NUISANCE SHOWERS AT TAF SITES IN THE LONG TERM AS UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE DECREASED BUT LARGE WAVES IN LONG PERIOD SWELL ARE STILL A THREAT. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFTS REMAIN OUT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES. THE BAYS SHOULD DROP BELOW 5 FT LATE TONIGHT WILL THE OUTER WATERS REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT STATEMENT GOES THROUGH ONLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED. LONG TERM...WILL LIKELY NEED EITHER A SMALL CRAFT OR GALE WARNING ON SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING ARCTIC FRONT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO AROUND 35-40KTS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LARGE...LONG PERIOD OCEAN SWELLS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR SPLASH-OVER ALONG THE MORE VULNERABLE BEACHES OF COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE IN PORTLAND WILL OCCUR AT 11 PM. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL YORK AND COASTAL ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...MARINE SHORT TERM...MARINE AVIATION...MARINE MARINE...MARINE

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