Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 160728 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 328 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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A weak cold front will gradually settle south from Canada and stall over northern New England tonight before returning north on Monday. A warm front will cross the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Low pressure will approach from the west Wednesday night and will move east through southern Quebec on Thursday driving a trailing cold front through the region. High pressure will build in from the west Friday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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At 06z...a cold front extended from the Saint Lawrence Valley through the upper Great Lakes. A weak surface trough extended from eastern Maine southward through the Gulf of Maine. GOES imagery showed mainly clear skies across the area. with light winds and mainly clear skies we were seeing low clouds and fog developing across the area in the predawn hours. For today...the low cloud and fogs should burn off this morning with light flow turning onshore by afternoon. The cold front over Quebec this morning will settle southward into northern New Hampshire and central Maine by evening and provide a focus for scattered afternoon and evening convection across this area. The stabilizing effect of the marine layer should limit the southern extent of the convection along much of the coastal plain today. It`ll be a humid day with highs in the 80s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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Any convection should quickly die this evening with loss of heating...then we`re left with partly cloudy skies with area of low clouds and fog developing once again as the frontal boundary lifts to our north overnight. Lows will be mainly in the 60s. On Monday...an upper trough gradually approaches from the west with daytime heating and dewpoints in the 60s yielding Capes across the interior of 1000 to 1500 j/kg by afternoon. The marine influence should once again limit convective potential along much of the coastal plain...especially here in Maine. Over New Hampshire and along the international border...the strengthening wind field and forecast instability may result in a few afternoon thunderstorms with torrential downpours gusty winds and small hail.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A deep southerly flow will develop through many layers of the atmosphere Monday night. This may allow stratus to arrive off the Gulf of Maine. An approaching upper level low will also trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the most widespread activity in the mountains of New Hampshire. The atmosphere will continue to destabilize with a cold pool aloft on Tuesday. As the upper level low approaches the region, more scattered showers and storms will erupt. A few of these storms may contain gusty winds, small hail and locally heavy rainfall over western New Hampshire away from any effects of the marine layer. 00Z model suite has a pretty good handle of the timing of the passage of this feature. There will be the absence of a focusing mechanism on Wednesday across much of New England. However, there may still be a slight chance for a shower or thunderstorm with a cyclonic flow continuing aloft. On Thursday, a strong short wave will cross the region with a better chance for precipitation. Yet another short wave will cross Maine and New Hampshire late Friday.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Short Term...MVFR to locally IFR conditions are expected in fog this morning and again Monday morning, especially on the mid coast and central ME. Otherwise, VFR today with sct MVFR in aft -shra/-tsra. On Mon...expect areas of MVFR away from the coast in shra/tsra. Long Term...VFR Monday evening. IFR/LIFR ceilings developing overnight Monday night and persisting through Tuesday. Becoming VFR Tuesday night. VFR Wednesday with ceiling and visibilities coming down again on Thursday.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term...Other than some locally dense marine fog and areas of haze, SCA conditions are not expected through Monday. Long Term...Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MEZ027-028. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Schwibs NEAR TERM...Schwibs SHORT TERM...Schwibs LONG TERM...Cannon AVIATION...Schwibs MARINE...Cannon/Schwibs

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