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496
FXUS61 KGYX 080731
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
331 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Several cool and unsettled days are in store as a warm front
remains south of most of our forecast area. Widespread showers
overspread the region today with some thunder. Another system
follows for the end of the week, bringing more showers into the
forecast. The unsettled, showery pattern may continue through
the weekend and possibly into early next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Our two day stretch of warm and sunny weather is coming to an
end today as a short wave trough approaches from the west and an
attendant SFC warm from remains largely to our south. This will
mean temperatures a good 15 to 20 degrees colder today.

Forcing for ascent will increase this morning across the
western zones then quickly overspread the rest of the forecast
area during the latter morning and early afternoon hours.
Despite cool SFC temperatures, relatively steep lapse rates
aloft will aid in at least a few hundred J/KG of elevated CAPE.
This should be enough for at least isolated thunder and a few
heavy downpours as the showers arrive from the west this
morning, mainly across western and southern NH. Elevated
instability should remain much of the day across the southern
half of the forecast area, offering showers with a few rumbles
of thunder from time to time. With that said we do not expect
rain all day, in fact several hours during the afternoon could
be dry unless the drizzle machine gets going.

Another short wave trough arrives to bring another concentrated
area of showers later on this afternoon and evening. These could
contain some thunder as well. Across the far south, mainly
southwestern NH, a storm or two could be on the strong side
depending on how much instability is able to develop near
(likely just north) of the SFC warm front. Small hail will be
possible, maybe with a brief instance of strong SFC convective
winds depending on how low level lapse rates pan out. Non-zero
chance of a brief weak tornado there if a sustained cell can
develop with surface or near-surface based instability. Again,
this would most likely be southwestern NH if at all.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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Showers linger into this evening but should see some drying
after midnight, as we move to the back side of the low. Could
also be fog and drizzle. Lows will be mainly in the 40s.

Moist low level onshore flow continues Thursday with colder than
normal temperatures and lots of clouds. Forcing for ascent
really isn`t that great so a lot of the day should be dry other
than some fog and drizzle at times, mainly on the coast.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Overview: Low pressure will swing out of the Ohio Valley and
towards the Northeast Thursday night into Friday. This low
remains through Friday night, before phasing with another area
of low pressure passing off the East Coast. Broad cyclonic
circulation will keep unsettled conditions in the region for the
remainder of the weekend and early next week.

Details: Guidance has trended further south with moisture
associated with incoming low pressure Friday. The important note
will be where this low stalls as it transits from the Ohio
Valley to the Northeast. High pressure to the north will keep
the column from becoming fully saturated across the area, with
most of the shower activity confined to southern NH. Can`t rule
out some isolated showers overnight into early Saturday
considering its proximity, and eventual phasing with low
pressure moving NE off the East Coast.

QPF remains on the light side, and have undercut NBM QPF in
favor of some of the more recent deterministic runs which show
the low`s center further to the south and west Fri/Fri night.
Kept with the trend of cooler interior temperatures Friday, but
think some cloud cover may develop breaks towards the ME
Midcoast and interior. Kept temps pushing into the upper 50s
here, with 60 possible the further NE from precip in southern
NH.

These warm temperatures should be more widespread on Saturday as
wave broadens and merges with low pressure moving up the coast.
This is just offshore enough to keep chances of widespread
rainfall low, but will still likely keep skies cloudy for a bulk
of the weekend.

Southerly flow returns into early next week, and this should
allow more persistent WAA to push temperatures into the 60s and
perhaps lower 70s by midweek. There will be the lingering chance
of showers into midweek as well. The pattern becomes more open,
allowing weak forcing to combine with passing fronts and
moisture to bring rain chances almost daily. At this time,
confidence in timing and amounts are low, and will be focusing
on narrowing those windows in the near/short term.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Short Term...Conditions gradually deteriorate today, as the
marine later moves in from off the ocean offering low clouds.
In addition, showers with isolated thunder will move across the
region this morning into the early afternoon with its own set of
lower conditions. A return to VFR conditions will be possible
this afternoon across southern and western NH in the wake of the
showers and isolated thunderstorms. Otherwise, lots of IFR
around tonight and Thursday that may improve from the north late
in the day.

Long Term...MVFR ceilings possible Thursday night through the
first half of the weekend. With unsettled conditions expected,
this trend should continue into Sunday as well. Occasional vis
restrictions will be possible in SW NH terminals as rain/showers
are most widespread here Friday into Saturday.
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&&

.MARINE...
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Short Term...A brief period of low-end SCA gusts possible
midday today on the ocean waters, but otherwise, we expected
conditions to largely remain below SCA thresholds today through
Thursday. However, occasional showers and fog are expected over
the waters.

Long Term...Conditions may approach SCA criteria Thursday night
into Friday, with waves 2 to 4 ft and winds gusting to around 20
kt. This occurs as low pressure spins inland across NY state,
and phases with passing low pressure off the New England waters.
Broad cyclonic flow will keep unsettled conditions over the
waters for much of the weekend.
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&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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High astronomical tides combined a small of storm surge may
push water levels to around minor flood stage around the times
of high tide tonight and Thursday night.
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&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Cornwell