Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 252202 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 602 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON TUESDAY BUT WASH OUT BEFORE IT MAKES TO CENTRAL MAINE. THIS FRONT COULD ONCE AGAIN SET OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SETTLE IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT COULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 6 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY THIS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT LATE THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT SHOULD AID IN INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICES SUPPORT IT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS EVENING ALONG WITH SOME FOG. PREVIOUSLY... ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL QUICKLY BRING OCEAN STRATUS BACK INTO SOUTHERN MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME A WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.... MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE AREAS OF FOG... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MORNING SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. EXPECT MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE TO SEE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. SHOULD SEE SOME SUNNY BREAKS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE. FORECAST CAPES MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO KICK OFF CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS AND THUDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE FIZZLING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 IN MAINE AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH OCEAN STRATUS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50 TO THE MID 60S. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 500 MB PATTERN SHIFTING TO A WARM PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS LOWER 48 AND WRN ATLANTIC. THE MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW AT 500 MB IS SHIFTING TO EUROPE/ASIA AS WE SEE ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAKER...MORE TRANSIENT WAVES...AND WARMER CONDITIONS AS WE TAP INTO WARMER TO OUR S MORE FREQUENTLY. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL TRY TO OVERCOME STUBBORN TROUGH HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS GASPE PENINSULA AND NEWFOUNDLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR N TO FLUCTUATE BACK AND FORTH...AND ITS PRESENCE AND THE PRESENCE OF THE DYNAMIC FORCING OF THE WAVES A LOFT COULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY IN THE MTNS BOTH TUE AND WED AFT/EVE....AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST OTHER PLACES. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE MID 70S TO MID 80S...AND THEN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUE. THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDS IN...ALONG WITH VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OF 16-20 C...WED AND THU...AND HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE N...TO THE LOW 90S SOUTH....WITH TDS IN THE MID-UPPR 60S. SOME MID 90S MAY BE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS WELL. IT SHOULD BE DRY FROM TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING...WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT POSSIBLY SETTING OFF SHOWERS IN THE N AND WEST LATE THU. THE MODELS BRING THE COLD FRONT SOMETIME THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI...AND WILL SEE SOME RELIEF FROM HOT AND HUMID CONDS...BUT STILL WILL REMAIN SUMMER-LIKE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDS. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR MON-THU. VLY FOG IS LKLY AT TIMES AT KHIE/KLEB...AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MON NIGHT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. LONG TERM...SEAS/WINDS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SCA LVLS MON-THU. WILL LKLY SEE ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW IN SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...ESPECIALLY TUE AND WED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE

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