Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 192134 AAA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 534 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist across northern New England as Jose meanders well off the New England coast tonight and through the end of the week. High pressure will hold over the region Thursday through early next week, with temperatures remaining above normal. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
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Update...Showers on the outer edge of the circulation of Jose continue to assault the ridge in place over Nrn New England but are failing to make much progress inland. I have adjusted PoP to reflect these latest radar trends. As Jose makes its closest approach later tonight showers will become more likely...and I do increase PoP back up those those levels before dropping them off again as winds go more NW. Previous discussion...A High Surf Advisory will remain in effect through at least Wednesday evening as Jose meanders south and southeast of New England. Bands of precipitation from Jose finally reaching the Maine and New Hampshire coastline as of the mid afternoon hours. These showers will continue to move north before reaching drier air and lack of dynamic support over central areas. Have likely to categorical pops for tonight for the coastline, with diminishing pops as you head into central areas. This is well needed rain for the coast. Most areas should pick up around a half inch along the coastline where rainfall due to the lack of precipitation the last couple weeks in this region. The 12Z Nam appears to be suffering with convective feedback in the precipitation fields. Have included patchy dense fog for tonight. However, the low visibilities may not be as widespread as last night due to a gradual increase in the northeasterly gradient and anticipated shower activity which could act to mix out the moist lower layers of the atmosphere.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Jose will continue to meander slowly northeastward on Wednesday per the latest official NHC forecast. Jose will likely cross over the 40N/70W benchmark as it continues to slowly push northeast, then east. Cyclone phase diagrams indicated this system will continue to have tropical characteristics for a prolonged period of time as it remains over the Gulf Stream. The greatest chance for shower activity will be early Wednesday morning and right along the coast. Thereafter, the chance for any precipitation lowers as the system pulls off the the east and allows drier northerly winds to enter southern Maine and New Hampshire. Mild conditions are expected Wednesday over northern areas where sunshine is expected. A little cooler near the coast where the showers will be gradually exiting out to sea. Still, it will continue to be mild for this time of the year with temperatures above normal. With this drier air, fog should more limited Wednesday night, at least when compared to the last several nights. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The tropical system Jose well southeast of Cape Cod will remain quasistationary through the weekend. Meanwhile, a high amplitude blocking ridge builds over the Great Lakes and will extend across northern New England providing a long stretch of great early fall weather with dry conditions. Warm air aloft from the midwest will spill over the ridge into the region providing well above normal daytime high temps. H85 temps of +14c to +17C will make it feel more like a return to summer. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...Areas of IFR/LIFR conditions in patchy dense fog overnight. Conditions gradually improving from north to south on Wednesday to VFR with drier air entering the region. Mainly VFR for Wednesday night, but it is possible that there may be some patchy inland valley fog if the gradient can relax. Long Term...VFR. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA for seas and winds will continue over the waters through at least Wednesday as Jose remains to our south and east. Long Term...SCA due to swells from Jose will likely be needed possibly into the weekend. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Building long period swells will continue to finally reach the coast this evening. With a relatively high astronomical tide tonight (10.7 feet in Portland), have issued a coastal flood statement of the beaches south of Portland. Long period, building swells will continue to approach the coastline during this period leading to minor splash-over and some beach erosion. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for MEZ023>028. NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NHZ014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.