Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 171856 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 256 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AT 18Z...THE 1045 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS SITUATED VICINITY OF THE MAINE - NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ON GOES IMAGERY...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE...WE WERE STRUGGLING TO APPROACH 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON...A GOOD 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. WE`LL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THEN LAST NIGHT...WITH NO LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS LIKELY TO BE BROKEN. THE OFFSHORE LOW CLOUD IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH...COULD SPREAD INTO SEACOAST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY DAWN. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... ON FRIDAY...ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH LIMITS HIGHS TO 40S AT THE COAST WITH SOME LOW CLOUD...PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF PORTLAND. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY WITH WARMEST HIGHS IN THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 50S. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SPOTTY SLEET...SNOW...AND RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH ITS PASSAGE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ANY LINGERING MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY SHOULD CHANGE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPS WARM. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARM ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL PRODUCE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY. MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW A LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE POSITION OF THE FRONT AND TRACK OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER SHOWERS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY. CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS KEEP PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...VFR...WITH SCT MVFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING IN MARINE STRATUS VCNTY OF KPSM. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN MTNS SATURDAY MORNING IN MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ACROSS ALL THE AREA IN SHOWERS TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WE HAVE SOME LINGERING 5 FT SEAS SOUTH OF PORTLAND THIS EVENING...THEN SEAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS WILL REACH 5 FT AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING IN ONSHORE FLOW WITH SMALL CRAFT SEAS LIKELY TO LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE CURRENT SCA WAS CONVERTED TO AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WITH THE NEW MARINE PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON. LONG TERM...SCA CRITERIA POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT...OTHERWISE NO FLAGS. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN GENERAL...RIVERS ARE RECEDING BECAUSE OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED SNOWMELT. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SCHWIBS/JENSENIUS

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