Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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710 FXUS61 KGYX 222011 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 311 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Low pressure will depart the region this evening. Thanksgiving will be mostly sunny as high pressure moves into the area. Another weak cold front crosses the region late Saturday bringing rain showers with snow in the north. More high pressure builds in for the start of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Precip should be winding down from SW-NE late this afternoon and early evening as sfc low offshore heads east and takes deformation zone with it. Some reports from Coos county of rain already changing to snow there, and snow the change to snow will likely shift SW into parts of nrn Grafton before precip ends, although little accum is expected with the tail end of this system, and any more measurable accums will likely occur in upslope areas this evening. Shortly after the rain ends should see NW winds pick up, with some gusts to around 20 mph possible this evening as well. CAA should begin right behind the wind shift, and temps will begin to drop. The CAA will be steady, but not overly strong, so temps in most spots should fall slow enough to the wind and mixing to dry out the roads before temps fall below freezing. Could be some issues in the mountains, where temps are closer to freezing now. Lows will drop to around 20 in the mountains, and the mid to upper 20s in the southern zones. Skies will clear quickly this evening. The winds will stay gusty through the midnight hours, but should diminish during the pre-dawn.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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sfc high builds to our south on Thanksgiving beneath weakly anticyclonic zonal flow at 500 MB. should see light winds and plenty of sun. However, cold air aloft will limited highs to around 30 in the north to the upper 30 to around 40 in the south. Thursday night will see a weak wave pass just the N of the CWA, and this will spill some clouds across the CWA, and maybe some SHSN in the far north. Lows will mainly be in the 20s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The weekend begins with fairly zonal flow establishing itself across North America with a weak system passing through on Saturday. A few weak disturbances will cause some upslope flurries and clouds but conditions will be generally mild through the start of next week. Another trough digs in for the middle of next week. Friday will be fairly mild with weak ridging. High temperatures will be in the 40s south to mid 30s north as we remain in the warm sector of a cyclone passing through southern Quebec. Some clouds and showers as possible along the international border as the system passes to our north. Saturday the low over Quebec deepens as it passes towards Happy Valley (Labrador), this will bring a weak cold front across our region for Saturday afternoon. With temperatures mostly rising above freezing by the time the front pulls through mid afternoon expect mostly rain showers but a bit of sleet or snow mixing in at elevation is a good bet. After the front we move into a period of general cyclonic flow aloft without any major storms through the start of next week. This will bring continued upslope snow shower to the international border region. Another storm system may impact the region by the middle of next week but the variability in the deterministic guidance is still so large it`s not reasonable to pin down any details at this point.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Short Term...Any flight restrictions will improve to VFR at most terminals by, if not before, 00Z, with VFR persisting through Thursday into Thursday night. Could see a few N-NW wind gusts to around 20 kt this evening. Long Term...VFR conditions will continue through much of the extended. The main exception to this will be along the international border where upslope snow showers will persist through much of the time period resulting in brief periods of MVFR ceilings possible.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term...SCA will remain in effect outside of the bays through Thu, as winds will pick up early this evening from the NW, and begin to diminish during the day Thu. Seas will likely stay abv SCA levels into Thu afternoon. Long Term... Conditions will be fairly mild through much of the next week with winds and waves remaining below small craft through most of the time. A weak cold front moving through on Saturday may result in a few 25kt gusts.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ150-152. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Cempa SHORT TERM...Cempa LONG TERM...Curtis AVIATION...Cempa/Curtis MARINE...Cempa/Curtis

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