Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 171603 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1203 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND PRODUCE A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FOR OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1201 PM...QUIET AND COLD SPRING DAY AS SURFACE HIGH CRESTS ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE MESONET FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE. 912 AM...AT 13Z A 1044 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN MAINE. OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SKIES WERE CLEAR ON LATEST GOES IMAGERY. AFTER A CHILLY START...WE`LL REBOUND TO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS TODAY WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING THINGS CHILLY ALONG THE COAST. WE TIED THE RECORD LOW AT CONCORD THIS MORNING OF 18F SET BACK IN 1908 AND BROKE THE RECORD AT PORTLAND WITH A LOW OF 22F ECLIPSING THE OLD RECORD OF 24F SET BACK IN 2003. THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS IS PRODUCING MARGINAL GUSTS TO SMALL CRAFT WHICH IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE 12Z KGYX RAOB...AND I`VE EXTENDED THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE BAYS TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. PREV DISC... 645AM UPDATE... SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE SKY FORECAST TO REFLECT A FEW MORE CLOUDS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY... TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 40S. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY... ADDING A COOL MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG THE COAST. AS A RESULT... COASTAL AREAS MAY BE THE COLDEST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE INLAND AND MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER. SHOULD BE A CLEAR DAY ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA.
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&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT... SO WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM AGAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOME RECOVERY OF DEWPOINTS TODAY WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS FAR AS THEY DID THIS MORNING... BUT 20S WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. RECORD LOW OF 21 AT PORTLAND AND 18 AT CONCORD ARE LIKELY SAFE FROM BEING BROKEN THIS YEAR. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO WARM THINGS UP FRIDAY. BUT AN ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP REGIONS NEAR THE COAST COLD AGAIN. WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW 50S WHILE COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. WILL ALSO SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WEAKLY AMPLIFIED ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST AT 500 MB THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH WILL LEAD TO COUPLE WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND NORMAL LEVELS. MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN DEVELOPS MID- LATE NEXT WEEK. FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE WEAK 500 MB TROUGH PASSING N OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR LESS DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THUS LESS CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACTUALLY WARM THINGS UP AS FLOW SHIFTS FROM ONSHORE TO WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND HIGHS POP BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S ELSEWHERE. AFTER SOME 500MB RIDGING MOVES THRU SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING...WILL SEE A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW PASS TO OUR SE TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO HAPPEN TOO FAR TO OUR S AND E TO BRING US ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION... BUT NORTHERN STREAM COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY... WITH MID LEVEL DEFORMATION OR INVERTED TROUGHING PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM... WINDS BECOME LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME MARINE STRATUS TO BRING MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS PRIMARILY TO PORTSMOUTH LATER TODAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF MARINE STRATUS OR FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. LONG TERM... ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...IFR OR LOWER IN COASTAL TERMINALS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT ALL TERMINALS TO VFR BY SATURDAY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY- MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM... WINDS CONTINUE TO GET LIGHTER WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET DROPPING TO BELOW 5 FEET THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SOMETIME THIS MORNING. LONG TERM... GENERALLY SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH THEY COULD REACH SCA CRITERIA MONDAY. && .HYDROLOGY... FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON AND THE ANDROSCOGGIN AT AUBURN... WHICH ARE CRESTING EARLY THIS MORNING... ALL OTHER RIVERS ARE TRENDING DOWNWARD. HOWEVER... IT WILL BE A SLOW FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE CONNECTICUT... KENNEBEC AND ANDROSCOGGIN RIVERS... WITH SOME POINTS NOT FALLING BELOW FLOOD UNTIL SOMETIME FRIDAY. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD PRODUCTS... PWMFLSGYX AND PWMFLWGYX...FOR MORE DETAILS. THESE PRODUCTS ARE ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER/GOV/GYX. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150- 152-154. && $$ SCHWIBS

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