Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 271330 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 930 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FEW CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS LATE TODAY...OTHERWISE A RIDGE OF COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 AM...MINOR UPDATE TO RAISE HOURLY TEMPS THIS MORNING A TOUCH BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. QUIET, SUNNY DAY IN STORE WITH A NW BREEZE. PREV DISC... AT 06Z...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE THROUGH SOUTHEAST QUEBEC PROVINCE. A 1030 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY. LATEST GOES INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FOG AND STRATUS OVER SOME INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR TODAY...THE WEAK TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRIER DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE BY LATE TODAY. A FEW CLOUDS WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL BRIEFLY WORK SOUTH INTO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. IT`LL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID 50S FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS WELL AS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF MAINE...WITH READINGS CONFINED TO THE 40S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... A FEW EVENING CLOUDS WITH THE QUEBEC UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...THEN CLEARING AND COLD OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW THE MERCURY TO TUMBLE BELOW FREEZING IN ALL BUT THE URBAN CENTERS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. AFTER A CHILLY START ON THURSDAY...THE BRIGHT LATE APRIL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW THE MERCURY TO RECOVER TO AFTERNOON READINGS SIMILAR TO TODAY. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH IMPACT WX: NONE EXPECTED. HEMISPHERIC 500 MB PATTERN FEATURES A BREAKDOWN OF THE OMEGA BLOCK DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NRN ATLANTIC...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF REF REX BLOCKING UPSTREAM OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GENERALLY QUIET WX...BUT COOLER...WEATHER THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE REX BLOCK TO OUR WEST TRANSITIONS TO A RIDGE...MAY SEE A TROUGHING DEVELOP OVER ERN NOAM EARLY NEXT WEEK. SENSIBLE WX WILL REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET THRU THE WEEKEND AS MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PRODUCES WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. SEVERAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THEY STAY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND KEEP THE CWA DRY INTO SUNDAY. COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT EURO/GFS DISAGREE ON WHEN AND WHERE...AND GFS ENSEMBLE ALL OVER THE PLACE WHILE EURO RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS POOR AS WELL...SO VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. AS STATED TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR FRI AND SAT...BUT SHOULD GET CLOSE TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY. MON/TUE REMAIN QUESTIONABLE DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH COASTAL LOW...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO SKEW NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY WILL SEE MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S AND HIGHS 50 TO 60...BUT WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW THE COAST WILL CLOSER TO 50 THAN 60. SAT AND SUN WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE IN THE MID 50S N TO LOW 60S S...AND OVERNIGHT IN THE 30S. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...LOCALIZED AM VALLEY FOG HAS BURNED OFF. VFR THROUGHOUT. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY-SUNDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS UNDER BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE. LONG TERM...WINDS SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLOW SCA CONDITIONS FRI THRU SUNDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... COOL DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP AS LOW AS 20 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE AVERAGING 10 MPH OR LESS AND METEOROLOGICAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WE WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF DRYING OUT THE FINE FUELS WHERE PRECIPITATION FELL YESTERDAY. GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. WE`LL SEE EVEN DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 25 PERCENT. FORTUNATELY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOISY

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