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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 162352
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
752 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON
WEDNESDAY AND STALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
---0000Z UPDATE---
WILL BRING DOWN THE SCA WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO
MOST OF THE PACKAGE. MODIFIED THE WINDS A BIT OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW AND ADDED SOME TERRAIN INFLUENCE TO POPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK SEEMS TO BE PERSISTENT...EVEN
THOUGH MODEL DATA IS CONSISTENT IN TAKING IT OUT BY MORNING. WILL
GO KIND OF MIDDLE OF THE ROAD WITH IT AND IT COULD AFFECT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IF IT STICKS AROUND LONG ENOUGH.

---2200Z UPDATE---
WINDS SHOULD START TO DECOUPLE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE WELL
MIXED LOWER LEVEL SHOULD START TO DEVELOP AN INVERSION AS EVENING
SETS UP. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE AND WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER THAN A NORMAL DIURNAL CURVE
WOULD. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO TWEAK WINDS AND TEMPS A BIT.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROF MOVES THRU THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE DOWNSLOPING WNWLY
FLOW DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET. CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW LGT SHWRS ARE
PSBL IN THE MTNS BUT OVER THE REST OF THE REGION JUST PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDS EXPECTED. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUID WAS USED FOR
OVERNIGHT MINS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROF EXITS TO THE E LEAVING A CONTINUED NWLY
FLOW AT THE SFC/ALFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AND GENERALLY CLOUDY
CONDS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WHILE IN THE DOWNSLOPING
AREAS PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. THE COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL
SEE THE MOST SUN.  FRI NIGHT SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR OVER MOST
AREAS AS THE DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT CONDS COMBINING WITH WEAK HIGH
PRES THAT SETTLES OVER THE REGION FRI NIGHT. GENERALLY ACCEPTED
MAV GUID TEMPS FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SAT AND SUN AND MOVE EAST
MON. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW
WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND KEEP
COASTAL LOCATIONS COOLER. FOR MONDAY BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF SWING WINDS AROUND TO THE SW LATER IN THE DAY AND PUSH A
WARM FRONT THRU. BOTH MODELS THEN DROP A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
BUT THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. HOWEVER THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR THRU FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED SAT. MVFR/IFR SAT NIGHT IN FOG ESPECIALLY
AT PWM/RKD DUE TO PERSISTENT SE FLOW. IFR/MVFR IN FOG SUN MORN
CONDITIONS WILL LIFT TO MVFR/VFR SUN AFTN. BACK TO MVFR/IFR SUN
NGT THRU MONDAY AS WARM FRONT MOVES IN.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WILL CONT THE SCA INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE AFTER SS AND OFFSHORE WINDS NOT ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD
MUCH AS NOTED ON THE BUOYS SO WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE
FOR TNGT INTO FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE WNWLY FLOW WILL CONT BUT
REMAIN BLO SCA THRESHOLDS AS THE PRES GRADIENT WINDS DIMINISH
SOME...AND BY FRI NIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.

LONG TERM...QUIET ON THE WATERS SAT AND SUN. SCA WINDS PSBL MON AS
WINDS FRESHEN FROM SW

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS AS
A CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL ABATE THIS EVENING AND THEN RETURN ON FRIDAY BUT NOT AS
STRONG AND GUSTY. GREEN UP CONTINUES AND THE COMBO OF THE WIND/RH
VALUES NOT REACHING RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

POHL