Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 250753 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 353 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE TODAY. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... FORECAST FOR TODAY /AND TONIGHT/ WILL BE ABOUT ONGOING WAA THRU THE ATMOSPHERE AS WARM HUMID AIR OVERRIDES THE NOT QUITE AS WARM AND DEFINTELY DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER PART OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIR...TDS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...WILL INITIALLY PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM REACHING THE GROUND AND SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE MTNS RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TODAY. CLOUDSHOWEVER..WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE STRONGEST WAA MOVES DOWNWARD THRU THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. THIS MORNING WILL MAINLY SEE THE CIRRUS THAT IS CURRENTLY OUT THERE...AND LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY TRANSPARENT AT THIS TIME...SO PARTLY SUNNY OR FILTERED SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL FADE TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON. INITIALLY THE WSW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX US OUT AGAIN AS WELL...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE BACK UP WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S IN A FEW SPOTS TODAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SUNDAY GIVEN THE CLOUDS. GIVEN THE STRONG WAA AND PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THRU THE DAY...CANNOT RULE A FEW SPKLS ALMOST ANYWHERE FALLING OUT OF MID DECK...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP SEEM UNLIKELY...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER FORCING AS THE 500 MB WAVE COMES OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND BEGINS TO CLIP OUR NW CWA. ANY SHRA WILL BE WEAKER AS EVEN ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL TONIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... THE WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. SHRA BREAK OUT IN THE NRN ZONES AND PARTS OF THE CT VLY THIS EVENING...WITH MORE FREQUENT SHRA MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS IN THE HOURS AROUND MIDNIGHT. SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY MOVES THRU THE NORTH AS WELL...AND CANNOT RULE A TSRA OR TWO. QPF IN THE NORTH OVERALL THOUGH WILL ONLY EXCEED A QUARTER OF AN INCH WHERE CONVECTION DOES OCCUR. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...COULD SEE A FEW SHRA MOVE THRU OVERNIGHT AS WELL...BUT GIVEN LESS DYNAMIC FORCING AND THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...THESE MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. MODELS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF ALONG THE MID COAST...WHICH MAY BE THE RESULT OF THE MARINE LYR MOVING IN LATE TODAY AND ALLOWINGMORE RAIN TO FALL TO THE SFC...BUT EVEN THIS WOULD ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHSOF AN INCH. ON TUE ANY SHRA SHIFT OUT TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRSTS HALF OF THE MORNING AND THE WARM AIR MIXES OUT ON S-SW WINDS AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. HIGHS WILL SURGE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MANY SPOTS...ALTHOUGH WILL ONLY TOP AROUND 80 IN THE MTNS AND ALONG MOST OF THE COAST. THE MID COAST NECKS AND PENOBSCOT BAY COASTAL AREAS WILL BE COOLEST IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITUATED JUST OFFSHORE AND A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFFSHORE...THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER AS WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE...WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR INTO THRU SUNSET...THEN MVFR...AT TIMES IN SHRA OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS TEMPO IFR LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE A RETURN TO VFR ON TUE. LONG TERM... WED - FRI...SCT MVFR PSBL IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT SW FLOW PICKS UP AGAIN LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH WILL STAY BLO SCA CRITERIA. TUE WILL SEE SW FLOW COME CLOSE TO SCA WINDS...AND SEAS WILL LKLY REACH 5 FT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY. LONG TERM... WED - FRI...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. && .FIRE WEATHER... RH VALUES DROP OFF TO 35-45 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW LVL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. WILL STILL SEE SOME W-SW WINDS GUST TO NEAR 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO ALTHOUGH BLO RED FLAG CRITERIA...FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED A BIT ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS. GOOD RECOVERY AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE N TONIGHT...BUT WETTING RAINS ARE UNLIKELY. MORE HUMID CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON TUESDAY...WITH MIN RH CLOSER TO 50 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SCHWIBS/CEMPA

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