Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 280235 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 935 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... AN INTENSE NOREASTER WILL THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A GENERAL SNOWFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ANOTHER STORM HEADING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY. && 02Z UPDATE... ISSUING UPDATE TO DROP BLIZZARD WARNINGS...DOWN GRADING TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS TO MATCH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 4 AM. SNOW QUICKLY FILLING IN ONCE AGAIN IN OUR EASTERN ZONES AND CONTINUING TO ROTATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE FA. ALSO DROPPING STORMS ON THE OUTER WATERS DOWN TO GALES THROUGH 15Z. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED ATTM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW INTENSE DEFORMATION BANDS CONTINUING TO ROTATE ONSHORE FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. STRONG N WINDS ARE MOVING INTO THE CENTER OF THE STORM... WHICH IS LOCATED OFFSHORE AND EAST OF CAPE COD... HELPING TO KEEP BLIZZARD CONDITIONS GOING OVER COASTAL AREAS. IN ADDITION HEAVY SNOW IS HELPING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT. THIS STORM IS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS EYEWALL- LIKE FEATURES... IN ADDITION THERE IS SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR ZERO DEGREES F. HAVE DROPPED OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ALONG THE CT RIVER VALLEY DOWN TO ADVISORY LEVELS FOR BLOWING SNOW AND SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. HOWEVER THEY HAVE GOTTEN ONLY 2-4" OR LESS IN SOME CASES... WHEREAS SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE UPPER 20S FOR STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND BLIZZARD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION... INCLUDING NORTHERN COUNTIES... WHERE THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS BEEN GETTING MUCH MORE SNOW THAN NORTHERN SECTIONS. OMEGA AND FRONTOGENESIS PARAMETERS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE BUT HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO FILL. EVENTUALLY THE BAND(S) WILL SHRIVEL UP TO JUST THE CORE OVER SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY NH TO SOUTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY ME AND DISSIPATE FROM THERE TONIGHT. BLIZZARD AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED SOMETIME OVERNIGHT. COLD AIR HAS NOT LEFT WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WITH VERY LOW DEW POINTS IN PLACE ALREADY... LOWS WILL BE NEAR ZERO F THERE AND CLOSER TO 10 TO 15 F AS YOU GO WEST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... COLD AND DRY AIR WILL BE DRAWN IN FROM CANADA AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO OUR EAST TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. COLD HP AIRMASS SETTLES IN EVEN FURTHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES TUMBLE INTO THE NEGATIVE DIGITS NORTH TO LOWER POSITIVE DIGITS SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE PULLING OUT TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ENTER THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS EARLIER RUNS CUT THE LOW OFF FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH...BRINGING HEAVY SNOW TO THE REGION. NEW EURO AND THE CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...CUTTING IT OFF TO OUR SOUTH. GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM. NEXT SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. NOT QUITE READY TO JUMP ON THE WARM SOLUTION WITH THIS STORM AS PLENTY OF COLD AIR AND SNOWPACK WILL BE INITIALLY IN PLACE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY COLD AIR TO FOLLOW...ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS PRODUCING LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KTS OR BETTER ALONG THE COAST WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF TOWARDS 12Z AND BACKING TO THE NW. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD MOVE IN W TO E BY 12Z. LONG TERM... FRI...MVFR IN SNOW WITH LCL IFR CONDS PSSBL. NW SFC WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...A FREEZING SPRAY ADV IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. GALES REMAIN UP FOR THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. LONG TERM... THU NIGHT - SAT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... LARGE...BATTERING WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE COASTLINE THROUGH THE UPCOMING 5 PM HIGH TIDE. LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE NOW UP TO 30 FEET AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. EXPECT LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT SPLASH- OVER AND EROSION NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THIS POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT EVENT. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW THREE FEET THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN COMBINATION WITH A 9.1 FOOT ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IN PORTLAND...MINOR FLOODING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE STORM TIDE REACHES 12 FEET. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON JUST PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE...WHICH MAY REDUCE THE STORM SURGE. USED THE NORTH ATLANTIC REGIONAL TEAM WAVE RUNUP MATRICES TO FORECAST AND WARN FOR THE TWO HIGH TIDES TODAY. THE OUTPUT SHOWS WAVE ACTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT EROSION AS WELL AS OVERWASH AT JENNIS...CAMP ELLIS BEACH...FERRY BEACH...FORTUNES ROCKS BEACH...WITH EROSION OCCURRING AT POPHAM BEACH. WILL INCLUDE THIS INFORMATION IN THE WARNINGS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007>009- 012>014-018>028. NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ004-006- 008>010-012>015. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001>003-005-007-011. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
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