Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 231115 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 715 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND WILL SETTLE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL SWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE... MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND TO LOWER POPS. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BUT SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. A LARGE TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OVERHEAD AND TO OUR EAST. THE TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AS RIDGING EDGES IN BY SUNDAY. AS WE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...WE WILL SEE A STEADY STREAM OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING...TERRAIN INFLUENCES...AND THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S TODAY. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WARMER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND MODELS ARE SHOWING 12-14 DEGREES C AT 850 MB. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE. LOCATIONS ON THE COAST MAY BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THANKS TO THE SEABREEZE. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED THANKS TO SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE RETURN OF SUMMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ON TUESDAY. BOTH DAYS WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUN. SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY BUT A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TO NORTHERN ZONES AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO EDGE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THERE. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES HOWEVER BEST INSTABILITY DOES REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. COLD FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG IT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIFT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR ON THURSDAY WITH NORTHERN ZONES ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP. SHOULD BE A HOT AND STEAMY DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 80S. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION. FRIDAY LOOKING TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY FOR CONVECTION AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST DURING PRIME AFTERNOON HEATING. INCREASING SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO SEVERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IF CURRENT TIMING HOLDS. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AS LOW AS LIFR. LONG TERM...VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED. LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HANES

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