Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 311434 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1034 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move into the region today. High pressure will build in from the northeast tonight through at least Thursday night with cooler temperatures but fair weather. A front moves through the area on Friday with a chance of showers. More showers are expected Saturday as an upper level system moves through. High pressure builds in on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1030 am update...little change to the going forecast. Have adjusted temperatures up a little bit based on latest observational trends. Otherwise, a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm possible later this afternoon across the western ME mountains with approaching cold front. 6am... clouds are hanging along the coast. HIE and 1P1 have fog which should dissipate soon. A region of high clouds associated with the front is draped along the Maine coastline. Rain remains well out to sea in the Gulf of Maine however southwesterly flow over the water is generating fog from Penobscot bay southwards to Sagadahoc county. The back edge of the clouds is moving out of New Hampshire. As skies clear sunrise fog may form in the valleys.... especially the Connecticut river valley where trapped moisture is plentiful. Any fog will burn off a few hours after sunrise making way for a mostly sunny day.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... A secondary cold front will move southwards out of Canada bringing drier and cooler air under northwesterly flow. While forcing remains weak the upper level short wave may be just enough to touch off some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon along the Canadian border. Wednesday high pressure will build into the forecast area. Weak pressure gradient will allow a sea breeze to move well inland in the afternoon. This will help to keep high temperatures in the 70s under sunny skies. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure shifts offshore Thursday allowing onshore flow to become established. This will set the stage for cloudier skies and cooler temperatures than previous days. Some drizzle and fog is possible especially along the coast. A cold front approaches from the NW by Friday morning further increasing moisture transport into the region. The front stalls initially as it waits for a short wave kicker to round the base of a digging upper level trough. Showers will spread across the entire area Friday with the front and Saturday as the upper level trough axis passes by. The heavier showers will be confined to the higher terrain on Saturday with the aid of orographic lift. High pressure builds in briefly on Sunday but clouds will remain with short wave energy associated with the northern periphery of the upper level ridge. A warm front moves into the area by Monday morning bringing a widespread soaking rain through Tuesday morning. Vertically stacked upper low will rotate overhead by Tuesday evening keeping showers in the forecast. High temperatures during this time will be a couple degree either side of normal and lows will be a few degrees higher than average thanks to insulating cloud cover. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Short Term...VFR through Wednesday. Long Term...VFR conditions for most of Thursday with the possibility of fog and drizzle in the early morning hours and again at night. Drizzle would be confined closer to the coast however fog will likely form in mountain valleys as well. There will be a chance of showers on Friday and the low level southeasterly flow could transport some low clouds off the Gulf of Maine and into eastern New Hampshire and western Maine at some point with IFR conditions possible. Conditions improve to VFR again behind a cold front on Saturday.
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&& .MARINE... Short Term... Areas of fog over the waters as an airmass with dewpoints in the 60s continues to move over the cold water. A front will cross the region moving in drier air. winds will pick to to 10-15 kts tomorrow from the northwest behind the front. Long Term...Winds and seas will be on the light side with a weak frontal passage Saturday. A stronger warm front will lift across the waters Monday and this may create stronger winds and higher seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier air will move in today dropping RH to around 30% over southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine. Northwesterly winds up to 15-20 MPH will also aid in drying out fuels. Recent greening up should preclude the need for fire weather watches/warnings. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...Ekster SHORT TERM...Curtis LONG TERM...Hanes AVIATION...Curtis/Hanes MARINE...Curtis/Hanes FIRE WEATHER...Hanes is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.