Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
451 FXUS61 KGYX 101608 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1108 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SYNOPSIS... THE REGION REMAINS UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW SHOWERS...WHICH WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY BUT UP TO SEVERAL INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. CLOUDY WEATHER LINGERS TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SET TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT FRONT...BEFORE COLDER AIR ARRIVES. WE HAVE A BRIEF BREAK IN STORE FRIDAY...BUT THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE REGION AND THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SETTLES IN FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1055 AM...THIS UPDATE BACKS OFF QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW AMOUNT A LITTLE BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ADJUSTS POPS A BIT FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED ON CURRENT OB. SNOW IS LIGHT AND RADAR NOT DOING A GOOD JOB OF PICKING UP THIS MORNING...BUT IT CONTINUES TO SNOW ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL NH...ALBEIT VERY LIGHTLY. EXPECTING THIS SNOW ILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING...AND MAY SEE ACCUMS UP TO AN INCH...ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD INTO THE LAKES REGION AND THE WHITE MTNS. MESO MODELS DO BACK OFF THE POPS/QPF FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS WEAK WAVE ALOFT MOVES INTO MAINE...BUT SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME SHN...IF A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW HERE BY MI-LATE AFTERNOON. UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES FOR POP AND TEMPS AS SNWFL EDGES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW POCKETS OF SN SHOWERS HAVE INTERMITTENTLY CROSSED PARTS OF NH SO FAR...BUT ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO TO THE W THE MORE CONCENTRATED LIFT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SN THRU THE HUDSON VALLEY. THAT WILL OVERSPREAD SWRN NH THRU THE SEACOAST THRU MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NEW ENGLAND REMAINS ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING UPPER TROF. THIS FAVORABLY PLACES THE AREA ON THE WAA SIDE...AND COUPLED WITH ANY S/WV TROF ROTATING THRU THE LARGER FLOW...WX WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. ONE SUCH STRONGER S/WV TROF WILL MOVE THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE SLY FLOW INTO THE AREA...AND DEVELOP A WEAK SFC TROF IN THE REGION. THIS PROVIDES A FOCUS FOR SN SHOWERS THRU TODAY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. REGIONAL RADAR STARTING TO SHOW ECHOES DEVELOPING TO THE SW...LENDING SOME CREDIBILITY TO THOSE SOLUTIONS. QPF WILL BE LIGHT...BUT AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THRU NOON FOR NH. ACTIVITY SHIFTS EWD IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SN SHOWERS SHIFTS TO COASTAL WRN ME. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WRN ZONES AGAIN LATER TODAY...AS LATEST HRRR RUNS DEVELOP BANDS OF SN SHOWERS THAT MOVE OFF THE GREAT LAKES AS CAA PICKS UP.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/... FEEL THAT WE TAKE A BRIEF BREAK TONIGHT WITH THE PRECIP. HOWEVER...LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SN SHOWER. POP GENERALLY STAYS AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AREA. ALSO EXPECT TO SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT. WITH GENERAL CLOUD COVER...BUT SOME BREAKS DEVELOPING. THOSE AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO QUICKLY COOL OFF...BUT TOUGH TO IDENTIFY OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE. UPPER TROF AXIS IS SET TO CROSS THE AREA THU. EXPECT MORE SN SHOWERS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. LATE IN THE DAY STRONG CAA LOOKS LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO FALLING TEMPS...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET AFTER MIDNIGHT BOTTOMING OUT AT 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO NORTH AND RANGING THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS SOUTH. NEXT IN A SERIES OF WEAK MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE OUTWELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS ONLY REACHING 5 TO 15 NORTH AND MID TEENS TO MID 20S SOUTH. WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT DRIVING AN ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP TO 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE NORTH AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES SOUTH. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ON SATURDAY USHERING IN SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON. DEEP UPPER LOW SETTLING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH. UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT INTENSE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. DESPITE THE WINDS EXPECT LOW TEMPS TO DIP TO 10 TO 15 BELOW NORTH AND 5 TO 10 BELOW SOUTH. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED WIND CHILL WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH MOUNTAIN CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS OF 5 TO 10 BELOW NORTH AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE SOUTH. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK ON MONDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS PUSH IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BY LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A BIG DEAL AT THIS POINT IN TIME. MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM MAY BE ON TAP FOR TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE HITS THE EAST COAST AND SPINS UP A COASTAL LOW BUT MODELS SHOWING SOME BIG DIFFS IN TRACK AND TIMING WITH THIS FEATURE. && .AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF A BROAD UPPER TROF. THIS IS KEEPING THE WX A LITTLE UNSETTLED...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU THU. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE SLOWLY MOVING INTO AND THRU THE AREA...AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NH THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WRN ME WILL SEE MVFR CIGS ADVANCE INTO THOSE ZONES BY THE AFTERNOON. WITHIN THE SFC TROF...SNWFL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH AREAS OF IFR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS LAST...BUT AGAIN MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE ACROSS NH TERMINALS. TROF AXIS CROSSES THE AREA THU...WITH SHSN LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN. LONG TERM...AREAS MVFR CEILINGS THURSDAY EVENING...BECOMING VFR. VFR FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. VFR ON SUNDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...HIGH SEAS ARE GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LONG PERIOD SWELL. WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS STILL OVER 7 FT...WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THRU MORNING. AS COLD FNT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE THU...A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS IS POSSIBLE. RIGHT NOW MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE S OF CAPE ELIZABETH...AND A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED. LONG TERM...GALES LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150-152-154. GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ANZ154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CEMPA/LEGRO SHORT TERM...LEGRO LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH AVIATION...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH MARINE...LEGRO/SINSABAUGH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.