Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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284 FXUS61 KGYX 251603 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1203 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will remain over the Canadian maritimes through today before weakening and shifting east tonight. We can expect another day with breezy northwest winds and upslope snows in the mountains, which will end tonight. A narrow ridge of high pressure will build in from the west Wednesday. High pressure will shift east on Thursday as low pressure approaches from the west. Low pressure will move east through southern New England Thursday night and northeast through the Gulf of Maine on Friday. High pressure will build in from the west Friday night and low pressure will approach from the west on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 12 PM Update...Upslope snow continues in earnest in the Whites and to a lesser extent in the western ME mountains. Have adjusted PoPs a little higher there as the activity should continue, with an additional inch expected in the most favorable areas. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast. 935 AM Update...Little change to the going forecast. Brisk morning continues along with a fair amount of clouds. Upslope snow showers still going strong in the central/northern NH and should continue into the early afternoon hours with 1 or 2 inches possible in the most favorable upslope spots. 635 AM...this quick update adjust t/td/sky grids for the next few hours based on current conds, but no significant changes made. also updated a pops a bit, mainly for some flurries making it into the foothills of Carroll/Oxford/Cumberland counties early this morning. Previously...Upper level low and surface continue to spin near the maritimes today, with several weak waves moving through, so expect the NW flow to produce another breezy and cool day with upslope SHSNRA in the mountains. Should see best snow begin to wind down this afternoon, but should a few more inches in those upslope areas above 200 feet, with even higher on the highest terrain. Otherwise look for partly sunny skies on the coastal plain. Temps will warn to 50, or maybe the lower 50s along the coast and in southern NH, where the warmer MET has been performing best in this downsloping over the last couple of days. It will be in the 40s most everywhere else, although a few mountain spots may not crack 40. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... One more wave works its way southward around that low to our NE and could see another wave of clouds, but any upslope SHSN will be lighter and less widespread. Wed morning lows will end up a couple degrees cooler than this morning, and winds will be diminishing, which will allow for some decoupling in the sheltered spots. Low will range from the mid-upper 20s in the mountains, to the low 30 in the south. Will see the low begin to move out of the maritimes, but will still be beneath cyclonic flow aloft, and thus, will be be partly to mostly cloudy. winds will be the lightest we have seen in the last few days, but still from the NW at 10-15 mph. Despite CAA waning, the coldest air of this surge will be overhead, so highs will drop a couple degrees from Tuesday, ranging from around 40 in the the N to the upper 40s in the S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A narrow ridge of high pressure will build in from the west Wednesday night as low pressure finally shifts off to the east. Lingering clouds will gradually diminish overnight allowing for good radiational cooling...especially after midnight. Lows will range from the lower 20s north to the mid to upper 20s south. Models coming into line on low pressure approaching from the west on Thursday. After a mostly sunny start to the day...clouds will be on the increase in the afternoon with rain pushing into western zones by late afternoon and early evening. Over-running pattern ahead of low pressure will gradually work north and east Thursday evening. Cold air damming east of the mountains will likely result in some wet snow or sleet during the evening hours in the mountains and foothills and over the higher terrain in interior sections of Maine and New Hampshire. Intensifying onshore flow will bring warmer air northward overnight as low pressure swings into southern New England so not looking for much in the way of accumulation. Rain will be heavy at times after midnight. Expect steady or slowly rising temps overnight. Low pressure will slowly move northeast through the Gulf of Maine on Friday. Expect steady rain in the morning to gradually push north and east of the area through early afternoon leaving clouds and areas of drizzle in its wake. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s north and upper 40s to mid 50s south. Low pressure will pull away to the east Friday night as a narrow ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Looking for clouds to gradually diminish downwind of the mountains overnight with variable cloudiness in the north. Lows will range through the 30s. Models still showing some significant diffs for the weekend as another shortwave forecast to drop into the northeast. GFS the most aggressive with this fast moving clipper type system while the ECMWF showing a much weaker wave and associated surface low. Will likely stay close to superblend pop numbers for Saturday. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...Mainly VFR, with the exception of KHIE, which will see some restrictions to MVFR in times in SHN into this afternoon. NW winds will gust in the 20-25 kt range today, but winds should diminish on Wed. Long Term...VFR Wednesday night. IFR/LIFR ceilings developing Thursday afternoon and persisting through Friday. Becoming VFR Friday night. Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings developing Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE... Short Term...Will keep the SCA going through today as we are expecting another surge of winds. Have also added the bays until 02z this evening as nearshore gusts are around 25 kt. Have also extended the SCA for the ocean waters through tonight based on latest forecast information. Long Term...Sca`s likely Thursday night and Friday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151- 153. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152- 154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...MLE is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.