Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 140214 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 914 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 .SYNOPSIS... TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND CREST OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL PUSH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AND THEN CREST OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... 915 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CANCEL THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE MID COAST AS ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES REMAIN. THIS SHOULD MOVE OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. THE TEMPERATURES SURE PLUMMETTED FAST THIS EVENING. THE RESULT IS AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND CHILL WARNING TO THE COAST. 615 PM UPDATE...INVERTED TROUGH AFFECTING THE MID COAST OF MAINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND PULL AWAY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR SNOW WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING SINCE A FEW BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD FROM TIME TO TIME. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES DROPPING LIKE A ROCK WITH VERY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES CONTINUING. PREVIOUSLY... SFC COLD FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT CLEARED THE CWA...ITS GETTING A LITTLE HUNG UP AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE INVERTED TROUGH NEAR PENOBSCOT BAY. ANY SHSN SHOULD BE DONE EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED STILL THINK THE TROUGH MAY FLARE A BIT AFTER THIS INTERACTION...BUT STILL THINK IT WILL REMAIN INTACT...AND COULD FLARE UP A LITTLE THRU EARLY EVENING...BUT THE BULK OF THE NOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN FROM THIS SYSTEM. DID DROP THE ADVISORY FOR LINCOLN COUNTY AS THE LATEST MODELS HAVE STOPPED THE SHIFT WWD OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SO...ANY ADDL ACCUMS IN ERN LINCOLN CTY WILL BE LIGHT. THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY LIGHTEN IN KNOX AND WALDO COUNTIES...AND SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY BEFORE. AS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA...THE CAA HAS BEGUN IN FULL FORCE WITH NRN AND FAR WRN ZONES ALREADY APPROACHING ZERO AS TEMPS FALL AND WE EXPERIENCE A VERY COLD NIGHT. ALL WIND CHILL PRODUCTS REMAIN AS IS WITH WIND CHILLS APPROACHING -40 IN THE N AND REACHING -25 ALONG THE COAST. AIR TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT -15 IN THE N TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN THE SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW UPSLOPE SHSN OF FLURRIES IN THE MTNS....BUT THEY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AS THE VERY DRY AIR MOVES IN. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AFTER A BITTER COLD MORNING...WILL SEE TEMPS CLIMB A LITTLE...BUT WITH VERY COLD AIR OVERHEAD AND SFC CAA CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY...HIGHS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ON THE COAST AND IN SRN NH...TO ZERO TO FIVE BELOW IN THE NORTH. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DESPITE ALL THIS COLD IT WILL BE SUNNY. SHOULD GET OF ADV LEVEL WIND CHILLS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND EVENTUALLY, THE FOOTHILLS BY AFTERNOON...AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO CONVERT THE WIND CHILL WARNING IN THE N TO ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN LATE SUN AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND SUN NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET AND ALSO ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME VERY LOW TEMPS IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...WHERE RAD COOLING COULD BRING TEMPS CLOSE TO -30 IN A FEW SPOTS. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR LOWS MON MORNING SIMILAR TO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WITHOUT THE WIND. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VERY ACTIVE PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEK... ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST MONDAY ALLOWING A RETURN WAA SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BY MON NIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WAA BAROLCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AND INCREASES FORCING. BY LATE MON NIGHT STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD WITH SEVERAL INCHES ACCUMULATION BY TUE MORNING ACROSS ALL AREAS. OVER SOUTHERN AREAS THE PRECIPITATION TUE MORNING WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO A MIX AND THEN RAIN WHILE FURTHER NORTH IN THE MOUNTAINS SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAY OCCUR BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER OCCURS. FOR ACCUMULATIONS USED SNOW RATIOS BASED ON TEMPS ON A CROSS SECTION. CONSIDERING AMOUNT OF INITIAL QPF AND ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER...FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PLOWABLE SNOW EVEN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. ALL MODELS SHOW A VERY STRONG SURGE OF WAA BUT CONSIDERING DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF ARCTIC AIR MASS HAD TO LOWER TEMPS SOME TUE ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN LOW LEVELS COLD AIR WILL BE HARD TO SCOUR OUT TUE MORNING OVER SOUTHERN AREAS SO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR BEFORE AFTERNOON TEMPS FINALLY SURGE WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND CHANGES PTYPE TO ALL RAIN. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS BY TUE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS WED OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING TROF. THIS MAY POSE A MINOR PROBLEM FOR THU WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE SO EXPECTING ONLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SYSTEM. SOME ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR FRI BUT A CANADIAN CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS BY LATE FRI SPREADING A PERIOD OF SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BY SAT. OVERALL STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND OUTPUT WITH EXCEPTIONS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...GUSTY NW WINDS...AS HIGH AS 25KT OR SO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT. KRKD WILL SEE OCNL IFR IN SNOW THRU EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD SETTLE AT VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE....EXPECT VFR THRU SUN NIGHT. LONG TERM...VFR THRU MON. COULD SEE EXTENDED PERIOD OF IFR OR LOWER IN SN/FZRA/RA MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...GALES AND VERY COLD AIR WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...WITH SOME ARCTIC SEA SMOKE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN SUN MORNING...BUT WILL LKLY SEE SCA WINDS INTO SUN EVENING. WHILE FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME LESS INTENSE DURING SUNDAY...WILL PROBABLY NEED AN ADVISORY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. LONG TERM...WINDS AND WAVES WILL INCREASE MON NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TUE. TUE NIGHT WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE NIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WED BUT BELOW SCA CRITERIA. BY THU NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE AND REACH SCA CRITERIA AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ012>014- 018>028. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007>009. NH...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ004>015. WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>003. MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153. GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER SHORT TERM...CEMPA LONG TERM...MARINE AVIATION...CEMPA MARINE...CEMPA/MARINE

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