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000
FXUS61 KGYX 160636
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
236 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING VERY GUSTY
WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND
STALL. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE WRM FNT HAS PUSHED E AS IS A QUICKLY FOLLOWING CD FNT.
HOWEVER, A SECOND CD FNT IS STALLED TO OUR W. THIS IS ALLOWING SFC
WINDS TO DROP OFF AS SKIES CLR OUT. WITH RECENT RAINFALL CREATING
A MOIST BOUNDARY LYR THERE ARE AREAS OF DENSE F FORMING AS
INDICATED BY SEVERAL MTR OBSERVATIONS. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE
W AFTER DAYBREAK WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE F.

THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES TDA AS A LOW LVL JET MOVES IN ALONG
WITH THE APPROACHING CD FNT. AS THE SOUNDING QUICKLY MIXES OUT
THIS MORNING AS TEMPS RISE THRU THE 60S AND INTO THE 70S OVER SRN
AREAS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE W WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO MAYBE
EVEN 35 MPH AT TIMES MAINLY FROM NOON THRU ABOUT 6 PM.

SKIES WILL SEE SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS OVER SRN AREAS TDA WHILE
NRN AREAS SEE MORE CLOUDS WITH A FEW -SHRA ARE PSBL DUE TO UPSLOPE
SFC FLOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACTING ON LOW LVL MOISTURE. HIGH
TEMPS TDA IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S N AND 70S S WITH PSBL 80
DEGREES FOR SRN NH. STRONG W WINDS SHOULD KEEP OUT ANY SEA BREEZE
THOUGH THE MID COAST WIND DIRECTION MAY TRY TO BACK A BIT TO THE W
SW. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM...MET/MAV MOS AND RFC QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE SECONDARY CD FNT MOVES E OF THE AREA THIS EVE. STILL CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT...UPSLOPE NW SFC WINDS AND LOW LVL MOISTURE AROUND
TNGT SO THAT CLOUDS AND MAYBE ISOLD TO PSBL SCT -SHRA PSBL IN THE
N WHILE THE S SEE SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRCP. THE NW FLOW CONTINUES
AT THE SFC BUT THE UPR LVL CYCLONIC FLOW WEAKENS AS HEIGHTS BEGIN
TO RISE WITH AN UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE W. AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO DRY UP SO NO MORE THAN ISOLD -SHRA PSBL IN THE N.
SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDINESS THAN ON THURSDAY. GENERALLY USED A BLEND
OF GFS/NAM...MET/MAV MOS AND RFC QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVERHEAD OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES SE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHERN NH ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY WE
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES EVEN OUT SOME WITH 60S AREAWIDE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND LIGHT FLOW A SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP
SUNDAY KEEPING COASTAL AREAS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER.

HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY ALLOWING SOUTH WINDS AND
MOISTURE TO RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE SE AS ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER LOW CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT WHICH STALLS OVER
THE AREA ORIENTED EAST TO WEST. THE EUROPEAN MODEL KEEPS THIS
FEATURE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE SEVERAL MESOLOWS FORM
AND MOVE NE ALONG IN. WHILE THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS THEY
DO AGREE ON A PROLONGED CHANCE OF RAIN AND CLOUDY SKIES.

A COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND WEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE DURING THE EXTENDED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
RISE TO 14-16 DEGREES C WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO 70S AND PERHAPS A
FEW 80 DEGREE READINGS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH INSULATING CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH AREAS OF DENSE F CREATING SOME LIFR CIG/VSBY. F LIFTS
QUICKLY SO THAT ALL SITES BECOME VFR BY 12Z-13Z TDA. GUSTY W WINDS
DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS DROP OFF TNGT. CIG MAY LOWER TO MVFR AT HIE TNGT. ISOLD TO
SCT -SHRA PSBL AT HIE THRU THE SHORT TERM BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...WILL EXTEND THE SCA THRU 8 PM
THIS EVE WITH GUSTY W WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. WINDS DROP OFF TNGT.
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BUT MAY STILL BE AROUND 5 FT OVER THE
OPEN WATERS WHICH MAY REQUIRE AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE OFFSHORE WINDS SHOULD HELP TO KNOCK DOWN SEAS TNGT.

LONG TERM...SEAS AND WIND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY W WINDS DEVELOP TDA AS AIR MASS DRIES OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER
SRN AREAS. WIND GUSTS OF 30 MPH AND MAYBE AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ARE
PSBL THIS AFTERNOON. RH MIN VALUES AS LOW AS 20 PCT OVER SRN AREAS
BUT NOT AS CRITICAL IN THE N WHERE ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA ARE PSBL
TODAY. THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES PUSH THE FIRE WX THREAT
CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA. THE RAINFALL LAST NGT AND GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR WILL HELP OFFSET THE DRY WINDY CONDITIONS
TODAY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ON THIS AND
WILL BE UPDATED EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

$$

CAPRIOLA/HANES