Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 010228 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1028 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SYNOPSIS... WHILE THE REGION WILL SEE A COUPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY. A COLD FRONT COULD COOL US DOWN BRIEFLY LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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1025 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET IN FIRST PERIOD GRIDS. PREV DISC... 625 PM...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ROOFTOP OF MAINE AT 22Z. WITH EXCEPTION OF A FEW CLOUDS...THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AS CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT IS LIMITED TO NEW BRUNSWICK ON WSR-88D RADAR MOSAIC. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS SITUATED ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST AND EXTENDED SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR COASTAL WATERS. FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...I MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MESONET AS WELL AS SATELLITE TRENDS. PREV DISC... COLD FRONT IS DROPPING INTO NRN ZONES AT THIS HOUR. THE BOUNDARY IS MOISTURE STARVED HOWEVER...AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO THE COUNTY CURRENTLY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE FAR N IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL BEYOND THAT. SURFACE RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT NEAR DAWN IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FOR TUE...SETTING UP S AND E OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONSHORE WINDS AS OPPOSED TO WARM...DOWNSLOPING WINDS TODAY. RESULTING AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TUE NIGHT THAN PAST NIGHTS. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PEAK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SO HAZY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING SOME RELIEF WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. IN THE TRANSITION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT LATER WED NIGHT AND THU. FOR FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND A LARGE BLOCKING SURFACE/UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL. IT SEEMS SAFE TO SAY THAT WEATHERWISE A VERY NICE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP. STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERBLEND MODEL FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. && .AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT AT LEB AND HIE. IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN IF AUG...CON...AND RKD WILL SEE ANY FOG AGAIN HOWEVER. LONG TERM...VFR EXCEPT MAYBE BRIEFLY MVFR WED NIGHT INTO THU IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. LONG TERM...NO PROBLEMS NOTED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ ES

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