Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 310412 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1212 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING NEARBY MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CROSSING MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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1205 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO INGEST CURRENT MESONET INTO THE 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. PREV DISC... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST TONIGHT ALLOWING A WARM AND MOISTENING SWLY FLOW TO CONTINUE. THE MOISTENING AIRMASS MAY ALLOW FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP MOST EVERYONE DRY TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO WESTERN NH LATE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WHILE LACK OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE A CAPE ROBBER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR...VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS...AND APPROACHING FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND DAMAGE AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THE MAIN THREATS. SREF MEAN PWATS RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO TRAINING CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE WRF-NMM AND WRF-ARW MODELS AND A FEW OTHERS POINT AT SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERNMOST ME AS THE HOT SPOT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT/S WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE LAST DAY OF AUGUST WILL FEEL JULY-LIKE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MID TO LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO STALL NEARBY...A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE CARDS SUNDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DEEPENS AS IT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING VERY WARM MOIST AIR TO POOL OVER THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS 18 DEGREES C WORK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL WORK TO CAP SOME CONVECTION...BUT WE WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERCOME THE CAP EACH DAY AS SHORT WAVES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL NOT BE HARD TO COME BY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SURFACE LOW CROSSES NEW ENGLAND FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND POINTS TOWARDS POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. THE LATTER HALF OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOK DRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK ABOVE NORMAL WITH A FEW COOLER NIGHTS (WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY) POSSIBLE THANKS TO RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND FRONTS. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR MAY ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEK AS WELL AS MORE RAIN. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... .SHORT TERM...SOME FOG AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE MOISTENING AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND IN RIVER VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SPOTS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THEIR ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SFC WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL. .LONG TERM...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM WEST TO EAST IN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CLOUDS. IMPROVEMENT COMES MID MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH VFR MOST OF THE DAY. SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIKELY FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG THURSDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR THURSDAY. && .MARINE... .SHORT TERM... WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH THIS EVENING AND WE SHOULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TONIGHT OUTSIDE THE BAYS...WITH LINGERING SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY. .LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW CRITERIA. NW WINDS FOLLOW FOR A 24HR PERIOD OR SO BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150- 152-154.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS... ES

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