Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 132241 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 640 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND STALLS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND....BRINGING SEVERAL DAYS WITH WARM HUMID CONDITIONS...AND SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ANS THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD TUE NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES...BUT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY AND LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH FAIR AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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640 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA. BANDS AND SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER WILL MOVE ON THROUGH...THEN CLEAR OUT TO THE EAST WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. PREVIOUSLY... SHWRS AND A FEW EMBDD TSTMS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A S/WV MOVES ENEWD THRU THE SWLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SFC IT WILL PUSH A WEAK TROF TO THE ME/NH COAST LATE TONIGHT. THE AMS IN PLACE WILL REMAIN HUMID WITH HIGH PW`S SO ANY SHWRS/TSTMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HVY DOWNPOURS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD AS PER BLENDED MODEL GUID SUGGESTS. WENT WITH HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT AS PER LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST. SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.SLGTLY INCREASED QPF GUID FM RFCQPF.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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THE SFC TROF WILL STALL AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WSWLY AS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC UPPER LOW REMAINS WELL TO OUR W OVER THE GT LAKES ALLOWING A SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE. THE SFC TROF JUST OFF THE COAST WILL DISSIPATE BY LATER IN THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV WILL ROTATE NEWD AND HEAD TOWARD THE REGION LATE MON AND MON NIGHT SPREADING MORE TROPICAL LIKE SHWRS/TSTMS INTO THE REGION AS ALL MODELS SUGGEST. PW`S WILL REMAIN HIGH. LACK OF ANY VENTILATION WILL ALLOW POOLING DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN THE 65-70 DEGS RANGE. USED A BLEND OF THE MODELS FOR TEMPS AND POPS. A QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OCEAN STRATUS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAY THE THE LGT SLY FLOW AND THRU THE NIGHT. FOR MON NIGHT ONCE AGN SLGTLY INCREASED RFC QPF GUID.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS THE CWA AND LINED UP WITH SW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...FAIRLY POTENT 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR WEST DIGS AND BECOMES NEG TITTLED AS IT BEGINS TO LIFT TO NE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND SHOULD PRODUCE SHRA/TSRA...PERHAPS SOME PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN AS WELL. GIVEN GOOD DYNAMICS AND VERY MOIST AIR IN PLACE /PWAT CLOSE TO 2"/...WILL SEE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAFL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON TUE AND CONTINUING INTO TUE NIGHT. EARLY WED...WILL SEE A SECOND WAVE ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD FINALLY KICK THE FRONT OUT TO THE EAST...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE WED MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER...SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS WED AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN. DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WED NIGHT...WITH CLEARING ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THU MORNING. THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY FAIR...WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS HIGHS CLIMB FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ON THU TO 80 TO 85 OVER THE WEEKEND....AND TDS RISING FORM THE 50S THU AND FRI...INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR IN DEVELOPING SCT TO OCCASIONAL SHRA/TSTMS TNGT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MRNG. LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER IN SOME AREAS INTO LATE MON OTRW SOME IMPROVING CONDS EXPECTED BY AFTN. CONDS ONCE AGAIN LOWER TO WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS AS SHWRS/TSTMS AND LOW STRATUS MOVE TO THE N MON NIGHT. LONG TERM...CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE ON TUE IN NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA...AND COASTAL TERMINALS COULD BE STUCK IN IFR FOR A BETTER PART OF THE DAY. EXPECT MAINLY IFR OR LOWER TUE NIGHT EVERYWHERE...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS BY WED AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. && .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...WILL CONTINUE THE SCA THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOME GSTY WINDS AT TIMES AOA MINIMAL SCA CRIT BUT ALSO BUILDING SEAS AS PER SWAN NICELY DEPICTS. LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE PRES GRAD WEAKENS BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH. ON MONDAY SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE SO THEY WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE OUTER WATERS ALTHOUGH IN THE BAYS THEY SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH. THE SLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN PICK UP SUNDAY NIGHT SO THE SCA OVER THE OUTER WATERS WILL LKLY BE EXTENDED AND ADDED ONCE AGAIN INTO THE BAYS FOR MON NIGHT. LONG TERM...SCA LVL SEAS WILL PERSIST OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS THROUGH WED AS SUB-SCA SW WIND CONTINUES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT....AND WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WEST AS THE DIMINISH...WHICH WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE FOR THU AND FRI.
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&& .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 11.7 FT AT PORTLAND, WHICH WILL BE ONE OF THE HIGHEST OF THE YEAR, WILL OCCUR AT 1236 AM TONIGHT. THE LATEST HIGH TIDE AT 1223PM WAS .3-.4 FT ABOVE THE PREDICTED HIGH TIDE. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS INTO TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH THE SURGE HIGHER TONIGHT THAN THE PAST HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL PUT TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE IN THE RANGE OF 12.2-12.5 TIDAL FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE 4-8 FT RANGE AS WELL TONIGHT SO SOME SPLASH OVER IS ALSO EXPECTED. THEREFORE, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE HIGH TIDE TNGT...FROM 11 PM TO 2 AM.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028. NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$

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