Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME-- Remove Highlighting --
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FXUS61 KGYX 261645
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1145 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017
It`ll be blustery and noticeably cooler today behind a departing
cold front. A weak trough will cross the area later today and
that may produce a few mountain snow showers. Low pressure
passes to our north late tonight and Monday and will introduce
warmer air once again to the region. The trailing cold front
will cross the area late Monday. A more significant storm
system will arrive for the mid week period.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --1145am Update...Forecast package primarily in good shape. Cold
air advection is getting going and winds are picking up as
expected. Temperatures across much of the area will either stay
steady or begin falling. Will update the forecast to account for
910am Update...Radar showing some fairly decent returns coming
off the mountains. High resolution short range models are doing
a pretty good job of picking up on this activity. Will update
forecast to account for this precipitation as well as adjust
temperature trends a little bit.
604 AM...minor ESTF update to reflect current radar trends and
to ingest the latest mesonet into near term grids.
At 07z...a surface cold front had just exited the coastline. A
weak secondary front/surface trough was approaching the Saint
Lawrence valley. For today...upslope flow and the secondary
front will produce a few clouds and mountain snow showers with
the potential for some light accumulations. Elsewhere...we
should see a few clouds along with partly to mostly sunny skies
in downslope flow. Highs today will range from near 32F in the
mountains to upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Diminishing winds and clearing skies this evening as weak
ridging takes hold. However...the next disturbance will quickly
approach from the Great Lakes tonight with some warm air
advection clouds arriving overnight mainly for northern and
eastern sections. On Monday...the surface low will track across
Quebec with the trailing cold front dropping into the area
during the mid to late afternoon hours. Any rain or snow showers
with this boundary should be confined to the higher terrain.
Ahead of the front...milder southwest flow will boost
temperatures into the 40s...with a few lower 50s over southern
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will be in control Tuesday with increasing
moisture and cloud cover ahead of a sprawling low pressure
system moving through the central CONUS. Temperatures Tuesday
will warm into the 40s and 50s with the warmest readings over
southern NH and SW Maine. Even warmer readings are possible
Wednesday. We will see warm temperatures again on Thursday,
but they will tempered in the north by cooler air arriving
behind a cold front.
Precipitation chances will increase from SW to NE Tuesday and
increase overnight and into Wednesday as the actual frontal
fracture and moves through. Precipitation chances will diminish
on Thursday with the cold front moving offshore very early in
the day and the upper level short wave swings through.
The back end of the upper level trough moves through over the
weekend bringing a chance of snow showers mainly to the higher
terrain. From Thursday night/Friday morning onward temperatures
will drop much closer to normal with a couple very chilly nights
expected over the weekend (lows in the north around 0-5 degrees
F and around 10-20 degrees F in Portland and Concord). Likewise
daytime highs will be in the 20s and 30s.
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through Monday/...VFR...with sct MVFR in mtn -shsn.
NW surface winds will gust to 25 kt. VFR throughout tonight with
sfc winds becoming light. Sct MVFR Mon in mtn -shra/-shsn. SW
sfc wind on Monday will gust up to 25 kt during the afternoon.
Long Term...Scattered MVFR conditions spreading from SW to NE
Tuesday afternoon into Thursday in mainly -SHRA but also some
-SHSN for HIE and LEB. Fog/visibility restrictions are also
Short Term /through Monday/...Strengthening NW flow in cold air
advection today with marginal gales in the open waters and small
craft conditions in the bays. Winds and seas will briefly drop
off tonight before increasing southwest flow on Monday brings
small craft or gale conditions.
Long Term...Winds and seas decrease quickly Monday night to
sub-SCA criteria. Winds increase to gales and seas in the 6-9 ft
range are likely Thursday into Saturday.
The flood watch remains posted for interior portions of Maine
and new Hampshire through this evening. Mild temperatures and
recent precipitation has caused water levels to rise and to
cause ice movement on many rivers and streams. We currently have
several ice jams that have formed and additional ice jams could
form at any time. Therefore...we`ll be continuing with the flood
watch through today. Please consult our latest flood products
for details on where ice jams and flooding are occuring.
ME...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ007>009-012>014-
NH...Flood Watch until 7 PM EST this evening for NHZ001>009-011-012-
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ151-
Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ150-152-154.