Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 032021 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 421 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE COAST INTO MIDWEEK AND ALLOW FOR JULY-LIKE WEATHER SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
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415PM UPDATE... CONVERGENT LINE WHICH HAS PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED TOWARD THE COAST... COLLIDING WITH THE SEA BREEZE AS IT HAS DONE SO. ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED AND PUSHING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. MORE ACTIVITY STILL POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE ADJUSTED THE HOURLY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REFLECT EXPECTED TIMING AND CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THIS EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS..SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY LATER TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY ONCE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS AS WELL AS THE CANADIAN AIR MASS SLOWLY ADVECTS SOUTH.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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ALL MODELS LATCH ONTO A LARGE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SETTLES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH SUNNY SKIES...COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITIES. FRIDAY NIGHT CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING TO TAKE PLACE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE RATHER COOL BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. USED A BLEND OF MODELS FOR TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SATURDAY BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES OFF SHORE ON SUNDAY AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP OVER THE CWA. PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO AROUND 10F TO 15F DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. SOME LOCATIONS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY EVEN BREAK 90F. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHILE IT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...MVFR IN ANY SCATTERED EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR. SOME VALLEY FOG IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY PRODUCING LIFR CONDITIONS. LONG TERM...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. THE FOG MAY GENERATE SOME IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BOTH OF THOSE NIGHTS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN SCA LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE

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