Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 180130 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 930 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THEN STALL TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT...STAYING JUST BEYOND THE GULF OF MAINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE EASTWARD AND BRING MILD BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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930PM UPDATE: THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ARE DRYING UP BUT WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SHWRS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS FCST. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW HRS OTRW NO CHANGES NEEDED. PREV DISC; UPDATED TO DROP THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NOW THAT ALL THE STRONG CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. PSM REPORTED WIND GUST TO 54 KNOTS AS THE ONLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IN OUR FORECAST AREA MOVED THROUGH JUST BEFORE 430 PM. A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON THE CONVECTION SHOULD END OR AT LEAST DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH TO THE 50S SOUTH AS WINDS DROP OFF DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... THE SLOW MOVING FRONT SETTLES JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WHILE OUR NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE A BIT TOO FAR NORTH TO BE IMPACTED BY THESE SYSTEMS AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING AN END TO ANY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN ZONES. ON TUESDAY THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER SOUTH WHILE COOLER AIR COMING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME IN THE NORTH. OVERALL EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE SLOWLY IMPROVING WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY ON LONGWAVE PATTERN BEFORE DIFFERENCES ARISE. THE GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE AXIS EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE DIFFERENCES EXIT IN THE LONGWAVE SOLUTION...THE MODEL SUITE DOES ADVERTISE A MEAN JET LOCATION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHICH ALSO SERVES TO INCREASE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FROM THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND. A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE EASTWARD AND BRING MILD BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THEN VFR EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF FOG LOWERING TO IFR OR MAYBE LOCALLY TO LIFR. VFR ON TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR OR IFR DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN AREAS THEN IMPROVING AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM... FRI...SCT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 4 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL SLOWLY LOWER AS WINDS TURN OFFSHORE. EXPECT THAT WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM... WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$

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