Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 301946 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 346 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY. A LARGE SYSTEM IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE A SERIES OF COASTAL LOWS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION SATURDAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT IN SOME AREAS AND ACCUMULATE BY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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3 PM...UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ANS WILL START TO WANE THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN AND NW FLOW DROPS OFF...BUT UNLIKELY CLOUDS WILL NOT DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS...AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS A LITTLE UNSETTLED. SO LOOK FOR SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY LATE IN THE MTNS. MIND DROP INTO THE 30 TO 40 RANGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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SFC HIGH SHIFTS NE ON FRI ANS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OUR FLOW TO SHIFT NE WHICH WILL KEEP MAXES SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S MOSTLY. THE DAY WILL START PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON FROM BOTH THE S AND THE WEST AS TWO SFC LOWS APPROACH...ONE FORM THE W AND ONE FORM THE S. DESPITE THE CLOUDS...IT WILL REMAIN DRY TROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. COULD SEE SOME SHRA/-RA/DZ MOVE IN FROM THE COASTAL LOW LATE FRI NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE COAST AND SRN NH. MINS SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH TEMPS RISING BEFORE DAYBREAK AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S N TO LOW 40S S. ANY SIGNIF PRECIP LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE SAT.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY AND INTO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE TRICKY AS THERE REMAINS AT LEAST TWO IF NOT THREE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITH SHORT WAVELENGTHS THAT ROUND THE MEAN TROUGH. THIS IS ALLOWING SHIFTS IN THE MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN IN THE QPF FORECAST ACROSS OUR AREA DEPENDING ON WHICH SHORT WAVE DOMINATES. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A SLUG OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH LIKELY/CAT POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES DURING THIS TIME. THEREAFTER...THE REST OF THE ENERGY SHOULD MISS US TO THE EAST RESULTING IN A DRY SCENARIO AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND CHANGEABILITY WITH THIS SCENARIO GIVEN THE COMPLICATED SHORT WAVE SETUP. MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SAT AND SAT NIGHT GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD BE A LITTLE TOO WARM FOR SNOW. HOWEVER...A CHANGE TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS TOWARD THE END. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL DEPENDING ON HOW FAR WEST ANY PRECIPITATION BAND MAKES IT. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. IN ANY CASE...THE WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN ISSUE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND DEPARTS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER IS LIKELY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING CHANCY RAIN END OF WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...MVFR EXPECTED THRU EARLY SAT MORNING. COULD SEE COASTAL TERMINALS DROP TO IFR BEFORE DAYBREAK SAT IN LOW CLOUDS/-RA/DZ. LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH LIKELY LATER SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA LVLS THRU FRI EVE. NE WINDS START TO PICK UP AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT AM...AND COULD GET TO SCA LVLS BY SUNRISE SAT. LONG TERM...A DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK. CURRENTLY THE STORM PASSES OUTSIDE THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. HOWEVER GALES APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE BAYS WITH STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE OUTER WATERS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO CLIMB TO 8-15 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM...CEMPA LONG TERM...EKSTER AVIATION...CEMPA/EKSTER MARINE...CEMPA/EKSTER

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