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000
FXUS61 KGYX 180709
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
309 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN MAINE ON
FRIDAY...BUT GET PUSHED NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN ON SATURDAY...AND WILL REMAIN OVER
THEN REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF MAINE AND NEW
HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT IS NOTED MOST PROMINENTLY
IN DEW POINTS. AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S... WHILE AREAS BEHIND IT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOW
50S OR INTO THE 40S.

THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH TODAY. MEANWHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS TRIGGERING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY
AND OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SOME OF THE RAIN
FROM THIS SYSTEM TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK VERY HIGH...
BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AS SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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RAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WITH
DRIER AIR IN PLACE... TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
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&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
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500MB PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THEN CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST DOES REPRESENT A BLEND OF
00Z MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE...IT LEANS MOST HEAVILY ON THE 12Z
EURO...WHICH SEEMS TO DO THE MOST REASONABLE OF HANDLING WAVES
THAT COME OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND INTO MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT.
IN OTHER WORDS...IN WEAKENS THEM AS THEY PASS THE CREST OF THE
RIDGE TO OUR WEST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE WE SWITCH TO
ZONAL TO SW FLOW...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION...AND ALLOW MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA.

REGARDING POPS...DID PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES ON
FRIDAY...AS ONE DECENT 500MB TROUGH DROPS INTO ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF FAR NORTHERN
ME...BUT THIS GETS PUSHED BACK NORTH...AS NW FLOW ALOFT HELPS BUILD
THE SURFACE RIDGE BACK IN. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...BECAUSE MAY MAKE IT
OVER THE RIDGE IN THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. BY
MONDAY... DEW POINTS WILL BE CREEPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND
SHOULD SEE ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY THAT EVEN THE WEAKEST WAVES
COULD PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TERMINALS. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. CLEARING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. COULD
SEE NOCTURNAL FOG IN FAVORED VALLEYS AS WELL.

LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR NIGHTTIME
COASTAL STRATUS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM... WEAK FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA.
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&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CEMPA
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/KIMBLE
MARINE...CEMPA/KIMBLE