-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 190206
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1006 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO NOSE DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS HIGH WILL CONTROL OUR
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUNNY WARM WEATHER
DURING THE DAY AND COOL PLEASANT WEATHER AT NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH ON THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION BY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO
FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
10 PM UPDATE: MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ON TEMPS FOR NEXT FEW
HRS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. TOOK OUT POPS AND ADJUSTED FOR FASTER
CLEARING IN THE CENTRAL AND NRN AREAS OF THE CWA TNGT. NO OTHER
CHNGS ATTM.

PREV DISC;
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST OFF THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FRONT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE RAIN TODAY BUT AS IT MOVES OUT TO SEA THE RAIN SHIELD WILL
SHRINK/DRY UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. CLEARING
SHOULD ALSO WORK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT LEAVING US WITH
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT. SOME VALLEY FOG MAY
FORM BUT WITH DRIER AIR/LOWER SURFACE DEW POINTS AND LIGHT NORTH
OR NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS FOG FREE. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM 40 TO 50 MOST AREAS THOUGH THE NORTHERN MOST ZONES
COULD SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS PERHAPS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING MUCH FROST,
IF ANY, SO WILL NOT PUT UP AN ADVISORY OR MENTION FROST IN THE
FORECAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER WITH LOW
HUMIDITY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY AND LOWS 40
TO 50 WITH SOME UPPER 30S NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS PICK
UP FOR AWHILE ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL KEEP OUT THE SEA BREEZE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT A GOOD CHANCE BY LATE AFTERNOON THAT WINDS
LIGHTEN UP ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO KICK IN ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ON
LONGWAVE PATTERN. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE BY
THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND BY NEXT MONDAY WE`RE IN A
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION MIGRATING NORTH TO A
POSITION ALONG OR NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS OPENS
THE DOOR FOR SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY AS A
WARM FRONT WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO FOLLOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SHOWERS END THIS EVENING
WITH ANY MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS VFR
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF VALLEY FOG LATER
TONIGHT BUT IT SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO DRIER AIR MOVING IN AND
LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST BREEZES. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR LEB
AND MAYBE CON AND HIE.

LONG TERM...

FRI - SUN...SCT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...THE FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM CANADA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.

LONG TERM...

FRI - SAT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT OUTSIDE THE BAYS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$