Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 011217 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 817 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY. SEVERAL AREAS OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... .UPDATE... DENSE FOG WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT INCLUDED IT IN THE GRIDS AS CURRENT WEATHER. ALSO ADDED ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SB CAPES UP AROUND 200-500 J.KG. FEW OTHER CHANGES BESIDES UPDATING OVERNIGHT LOW AND CURRENT TEMPERATURES/ DEW POINTS. && PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES BUT K VALUES AND CURRENT DEW POINTS SUGGEST A LACK OF MOISTURE SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCE POPS INTO SOUTHERN ZONES TOWARDS MORNING AS WEAK MID LEVEL OVER-RUNNING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTH. AFTER A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO SATURDAY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS EXPECT SOME SUNNY BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN INLAND LOCATIONS AS HIGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS PUSH EAST. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAINE. WILL SEE A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 70S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROFS MOVING THRU THE BROADER PATTERN. UPPER LVL FLOW IS MAINLY FROM THE SW WHICH IS CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST SOME WET WX WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID WX POSSIBLE. BY THE END OF THE FCST PERIOD THE SW FLOW ALOFT ENDS BUT A STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THRU...AGAIN SUPPORTING A CHC OF PRCP. AT THE SFC A WEAK WARM FNT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN WEAKENS AS IT MOVES THRU ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAK WARM FNT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROF OR WEAK COLD FNT MOVE THRU MID WEEK. OVERALL THIS SUGGESTS A CHC OF SHRA/TSTMS JUST ABOUT EVERYDAY THRU THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE CHC HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS THEN DROPPING OFF AT NGT. USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...HPC GUIDANCE...PREVIOUS FCST FOR PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...UNSETTLED WX PATTERN WITH A RISK OF SHRA/TSTMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...MORE SO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LATE NGT FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH NGT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...NO FLAGS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...THE SFC WEATHER PATTERN HAS WEAK FEATURES DOMINATING THRU THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD RESULTING IN WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...HANES

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