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000
FXUS61 KGYX 241859
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
259 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE AND STALL THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT NEAR CAPE COD AND WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL ACCELERATE NORTH INTO LABRADOR ON SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND WILL
PUSH EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
NORTHWEST MAINE AND THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FRONT WILL STALL
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING AND WILL BE THE FOCUS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL IN MID COAST AND CENTRAL MAINE DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
ACTION ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE NEXT BATCH OF PRECIP EDGES IN FROM THE WEST. WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR LOW PRESSURE TO GET SPUN UP OVERNIGHT SO THIS BREAK MAY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MAINE FOR THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
850 OVER-RUNNING GETS GOING IN EARNEST ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

12Z MODELS TRENDING FARTHER WEST WITH AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIP AND
COMING INTO LINE WITH LAST NIGHT 00Z ECMWF. 24 HOUR QPF FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND CONNECTICUT VALLEY DOWN TO AROUND AN INCH TO 1.5
INCHES THROUGH 00Z SUN. WITH THIS IN MIND...DOESN`T APPEAR
FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE CONSIDERING THE BREAK IN THE ACTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT ITSELF...SO HOLDING
OFF ON ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT IN TIME.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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RAIN WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND MEANDERS AROUND THE
GULF OF MAINE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AT SOME POINT ON SATURDAY IN FAR WESTERN ZONES BUT
ENOUGH WARM AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SYSTEM THAT THIS WOULD BE FAIRLY
BRIEF. BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS WOULD BE IN THE GREENS OF VERMONT
AND THE DACKS. WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH TEMPS HOLDING
IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS AND SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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UPR LVL AND SFC LOWS LIFTING NE ON SUNDAY WITH STEADIER PRCP
BECOMING MORE SCT IN NATURE AND LIGHTER IN INTENSITY. ANY LEFTOVER
SHRA ENDING SUNDAY NGT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES.
MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS LIKE FAIR WX NOW WITH SYSTEM PULLING OUT FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NE. STILL SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND SOME LEFTOVER
MOISTURE THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY IN THE N/MT
ZONES DUE TO UPSLOPING NW SFC WINDS. MIGHT SEE AN ISOLD SHRA IN
THE N/MT ZONES OTRW NO PRCP EXPECTED ON MEMORIAL DAY.

HIGH PRES AND UPR LVL RIDGE BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE UPR LVL RIDGE HOLDS 0N OVER THE ERN U.S. BUT A SERIES OF WEAK
UPR LVL SHORT WAVE TROFS DRIVE THRU THE RIDGE FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THIS FORMS A WRM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR S THAT
LIFTS N AND WILL PROVIDE SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT SHRA
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY. THE UPR LVL RIDGE BECOMES
BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE E COAST THURSDAY NGT AND FRIDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVES EXIT THE COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WRM AIR TO CONT
MOVING IN FROM THE SW. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT PSBL SHRA DUE TO WRM
FNT MOVING THRU.

GENERALLY USED BLEND OF GFS40/NAM/MET/MAV/HPC QPF FOR PERIODS 4
AND 5 THEN GFS40, GMOS, HPC QPF, MEX MOS AND WNA4 FOR THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM FCST.
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MVFR TO PSBL IFR IN SHRA
THAT WILL BE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NGT. MAINLY VFR
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...CONTINUING SCA. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR
SPLASH-OVER AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
PSBL SUNDAY THRU MOST OF SUNDAY NGT THEN HIGH PRES DROPS
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY.
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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NO PROBLEMS NOTED.
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&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
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&&

$$