000
FXUS61 KGYX 181922
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
322 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE WDLY
SCT AFTN INSBLTY CLDS AND SPRINKLES WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SS
FOLLOWED BY P/C CONDS. OVERNIGHT MINS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
IN THE MTNS TO MID 40S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FORECAST GETS SOMEWHAT INTERESTING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS WIDELY DIFFER WITH POPS, TIMING, AND LOCATION OF MINOR
S/WVES AND ALSO QPF. WILL ASSUME THE GFS IS OVERPLAYING CONVECTION
MOVING THRU THE DIRTY RIDGE AND ALSO THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHWRS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL PREFER THE SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE
DRIER NAM AND ALSO LOWER POPS SO MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY.
USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS GUID FOR TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION
AND TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL
AFFECT TIMING OF PRECIP AS WELL AS WIND DIRECTION. FOR NOW HAVE
USED THE ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A BETTER THREAT OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST. A MORE
ORGANIZED LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. ONCE THIS LOW MOVES PAST THE AREA EXPECT DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEN A CHC OF MVFR
CIG/VSBY IN ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA SUNDAY AFTN AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDE SPREAD DUE TO A STALLED FRONT
AND AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. AN ONSHORE FLOW
COULD PROMOTE FOG ALONG COASTAL AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A LIGHT SE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TNGT AND INCREASES
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT
SLOWLY INCREASES. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN BLO SCA CONDS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE LOCATION OF A STALLED
FRONT. EXPECT THEM TO TURN ONSHORE BY MID WEEK. AREAS OF FOG MAY
FORM. WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEY WILL APPROACH SCA LEVELS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE FAIRLY LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS GREEN UP CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY BUT OFF THE OCEAN WHICH
WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RH VALUES PUSHING INLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHC
OF SHOWERS DURING THE WORK WEEK WHICH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
FAIRLY HIGH RH VALUES.
&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...LULOFS