Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 240215 AAB AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1015 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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.UPDATE... MINOR CHANGES THIS FORECAST TO ADJUST POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE THE MODERATE RAIN IS NOW FALLING. THIS RAIN SHIELD CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. CALLS TO COMMUNITIES INDICATE NO FLOODING PROBLEMS OF NOTE... BUT AS RAIN CONTINUES SMALL STREAMS AND SOME RIVERS WILL REACH BANKFULL AND MINOR URBAN FLOODING WILL PERSIST. ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES AS CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS/HIGH DEW POINTS WILL NOT BE EXITING ANYTIME SOON.
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&& .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
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SLUG OF MOISTURE NOW MOVING ACROSS WESTERN MAINE IN A MORE WNW DIRECTION THAN NNW AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE MESOMODELS. IR SATELLITE SHOWS A VERY LARGE SYSTEM WITH MOST OF ITS ENERGY MOVING INTO EASTERN MAINE. NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN NOTED RECENTLY AND ANY INSTABILITY REMAINS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT SO HAVE REMOVED WORDING. ALSO THINK FOG WILL BE VERY LIMITED BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS SO HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS GIVES A 100% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA...SOME LOCATIONS LIKE SOUTHERN NH ARE NOT CURRENTLY RECEIVING PRECIPITATION AND WON`T FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I HAVE ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO TRY AND REFLECT WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING WITH THE HELP OF THE WRF/HRRR AND NAM12.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... CLOUDS WILL LINGER ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS MOISTURE AND WEAK IMPULSES CONTINUE TO PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW CENTERED WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL LATE FALL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MUCH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...AS OUR STUBBORN...CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EDGES SLOWLY THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL ALLOW SATURDAY TO BE A MUCH NICER DAY WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION HOWEVER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION ON GUSTY NW WINDS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS PERIOD AS UPSLOPING CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE NORTH AND DOWNSLOPING IN THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER...BUT MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR THROUGH TONIGHT IN RAIN AND FOG. SFC WND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR KAUG THROUGH 00Z. MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCT SHRA EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CEILINGS AND VSBYS MAY BE LOWERING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR THE GRADIENT TO RELAX. GALES HEADLINED THROUGH 06Z FRI WITH SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. LONG TERM...SCA TYPE WINDS LIKELY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BRISK WNW WINDS. && .HYDROLOGY... TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING...THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE EVENING. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... POCKETS OF MINOR SPLASHOVER AND BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>028. NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NHZ004-006-008>010- 013-014. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ UPDATE...HANES

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