Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 142246 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 646 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPDATE...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY. TIMING OUT THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS NY STATE...WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA COULD SEE SHRA WITHIN THE NEXT 4 HOURS. HI-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE FIZZLES THE LINE WITH TIME...AS IT ENTERS MORE STABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF NH AND ME. HAVE ADJUSTED POP TO RAMP UP IN WRN ZONES THIS EVENING...THEN DROP OFF OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE AGAIN IN THE MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO NORTHWEST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND AT THE SAME TIME OCEAN STRATUS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER SUNSET IN COASTAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS....OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/... RAIN WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH RIVERS ALREADY RUNNING HIGH FROM SNOW MELT...WILL LIKELY SEE MANY AREA RIVERS GO INTO FLOOD. MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT SHOWING STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S IN COASTAL AND NORTHERN ZONES AND LOWER TO MID 60S IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MAINE. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT RAIN TO END AS A PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR SLEET WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 12Z MODEL SUITE IS MERGING TOWARDS A SOLUTION WITH A LARGE POLAR HIGH BUILDING OVER THE REGION AFTER OUR EXTREMELY WARM WEATHER AND SNOW MELT TODAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH LARGE DIURNAL RANGES AND COLD NIGHTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS WILL KEEP THE COAST VERY CHILLY. LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO LINE UP...FOCUSING THEMSELVES ON NEW ENGLAND...SIMILAR TO MOST SPRINGS. IN FACT...THE 12Z EURO NOW SHOWS A VERY LARGE CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AT 222 HOURS. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR/IFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE DETERIORATING THIS WEEKEND WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR BAYS AND OUTER WATERS THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM...AFTER WEDNESDAY...WINDS SLACKEN SOMEWHAT...HOWEVER MAY REMAIN ONSHORE FOR THE DURATION. && .HYDROLOGY... WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE RAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW SEVERAL RIVERS IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA ARE EXPECTED TO GO INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER AT DALTON WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY. A FLOOD WARNING FOR THE CONNECTICUT AT WELLS RIVER AND WEST LEBANON WAS JUST ISSUED. EXPECT MORE FLOOD WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED TOMORROW. MOST RIVERS WONT CREST UNTIL SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>028. NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO

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