Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 281314 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 914 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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9AM UPDATE... HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS THE CLOUD COVER LIMITED OVERNIGHT COOLING AND THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH FOR THE MORNING. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.. AS HIGH CIRRUS AND TEMPS IN THE 60S ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM SECTOR MOVE INTO THE REGION. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST TODAY WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINNING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE WARMING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT THIS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIMIT THE SURFACE HEATING/MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S TODAY. WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION ALONG A WARM FRONT SHOULD STAY PRIMARILY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST TODAY.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT... THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT AND BEGIN TRANSPORTING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS ACTUALLY INDICATE RISING DEWPOINTS OVERNIGHT WHICH IS USUALLY A SIGN OF FOG POTENTIAL. WITH THE FLOW OFF THE WATER CONTRIBUTING TO THIS... FOG AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WAS MENTIONED ALONG THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT... WITH THE MIDCOAST REGION BEING THE MOST LIKELY AREA AFFECTED. TEMPERATURES DO NOT FALL OFF THAT MUCH TONIGHT AND IN FACT MAY BEGIN TO RISE LATER IN THE NIGHT AS WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP. IT APPEARS THAT TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING POSSIBLY TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THE SECOND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS IN THE NORTH BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS IN THE SOUTH BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE FRONT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A DRY AND COOL WNW FLOW EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY. BUT ALL EYES WILL BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EAST COAST STORM TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST TROUGH. ONE THING MODELS ALL AGREE ON IS STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY. THE LATEST EURO CLOSES OFF THE LOW EVEN FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE VIGOROUS STRONG JET DIGGING SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE LIFTING IT NEWD TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE FOR SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, OTHER MODELS KEEP TROUGH MORE OPEN, PROGRESSIVE AND FURTHER N. THE PROBLEM MODELS ARE HAVING IS TRYING TO PHASE TWO SEPARATE STRONG S/WAVES THAT BOTH PACK A LOT OF ENERGY. TIMING OF ENDING PRECIPITATION SUNDAY WILL BE DIFFICULT SO HEDGED FOR NOW AND RAISED POPS AND HAD TO STRONGLY CONSIDER EURO SOLUTION. EURO WOULD KEEP SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS WOULD HAVE CLEARING FOR SUNDAY DUE TO ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE. ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH THE WEEKEND STORM WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS APPEAR MUCH TOO WARM FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY CONSIDERING DYNAMIC COOLING AND COLD LOW LEVEL DRAINAGE OCCURRING INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM OFF THE COAST. HAD TO LOWER TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES FOR EACH PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL START OUT AS RAIN BUT CHANGE TO SNOW LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN EXPECT THE SNOW LEVELS TO LOWER AND EVENTUALLY REACH THE COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT ALL PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. QPF AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT ARE UP IN THE AIR SINCE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM STILL UNCERTAIN. FOR GUIDANCE, STARTED WITH THE SUPERBLEND BUT HAD TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRST WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON. && .AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY. WILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED INTO THE AREA ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS AS IT DOES SO. VFR RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT BUT LINGERING MVFR IN THE MOUNTAINS IS POSSIBLE. LONG TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR CONDITIONS LATER FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TODAY AND INCREASES A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM...BEHIND THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT COLD ADVECTION OCCURS AND MAY ALLOW THE WNW FLOW TO BRIEFLY GUST TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY MORNING. GALE OR EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...CURTIS SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...

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