-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 171241
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
841 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE MARINE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDS. SEAS CONT TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE...THEREFORE THE SCAS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG THE OUTER WATERS TODAY.
OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDDED PACKAGE THIS MORNING.

PREV DISC...
UPDATED FCST TO ADD SLGT CHC -SHRA THIS MORNING TO NE MAINE
ZONES PER LATEST RADAR. INCREASED WIND GUSTS A FEW MPH FOR TDA.
ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS.

WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W TDA CONTINUING THE NW FLOW
OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT GUSTY TDA...BUT NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY WERE ON THURSDAY. THE DOWNSLOPE NW FLOW
SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER SRN AND INTO CENTRAL AREAS
WHILE THE N/MT ZONES SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD -SHRA TDA DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW.

TEMPS WON`T BE NEARLY AS WRM AS THURSDAY AS A COOLER AIR MASS IS
MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING CD FNT. H8 TEMPS WERE PLUS 10 C OR
HIGHER ON THURSDAY BUT WILL BE LESS THAN PLUS 5 C TDA. THIS SHOULD
GIVE US MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S N AND MID 60S TO AROUND 70 S. THE GUSTY NW WINDS TDA SHOULD
KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST...THOUGH IT
MAY TRY TO SET UP NEAR THE END OF THE DAY AS THE GRADIENT NW WIND
BEGINS TO LET UP. THIS SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPS TDA.

GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM AND MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE
NEAR TERM FCST.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DESPITE THE HIGH SETTLING IN TNGT THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDINESS
AROUND AS MODELS SHOW MOISTURE DEVELOPING AND SLIDING IN ON NW
FLOW ALOFT. STILL SHOULD SEE LGT WINDS AND TEMPS COOLING OFF INTO
THE 30S FOR MANY AREAS...WITH LOWER 40S MORE COMMON NEAR THE
COAST. FROST WILL BE PSBL TNGT...MORE SO OVER N/MT ZONES.

ON SATURDAY THE MODELS DROP A WEAK UPR LVL SHORT WAVE/JET SEGMENT
SE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE IS
BETWEEN THE UPR LVL RIDGE TO THE W AND THE UPR LVL CUTOFF LOW OVER
THE MARITIMES. IT ALSO WILL HELP DEVELOP A WRM FNT TO OUR W AS A
WARMER AIR MASS BEGINS TO PUSH NE TOWARD THE NE U.S. THE UPR LVL
FEATURE AND APPROACHING/DEVELOPING WRM FNT WILL BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO THE FCST AREA ON SATURDAY AS INDICATED BY
INCREASING RH IN THE MODELS. THERE IS EVEN THE SLGT CHC OF A LGT
SHOWER OR TWO WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH PERHAPS A HIGHER CHC ACROSS
THE N/MT ZONES.

GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GFS/NAM AND MET/MAV GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
RFC QPF /WHICH HAS VERY LGT AMOUNTS/ FOR THE SHORT TERM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NUMERICALS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE PATTERN WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WHICH LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...FALLING
HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SOME DEGREE OF EASTERN TROUGH
EMERGES. WITH MEAN JET AXIS OVERHEAD OR NEARBY...THE AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
TRAVEL EASTWARD ALONG A BOUNDARY SEPARATING SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH
FROM EARLY SPRING CHILL.

IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT FURTHER OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...MAINLY VFR THOUGH MVFR PSBL ON
SATURDAY ACROSS N/MT AREAS WHICH WOULD IMPACT HIE. THERE IS A SLGT
CHC OF A -SHRA OR TWO ON SATURDAY...THOUGH THEY MAY BE LIMITED TO
N/MT ZONES. GUSTY NW WINDS TDA...BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THEY
WERE ON THURSDAY. THE NW WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE SEA BREEZE FROM
FORMING TDA.

LONG TERM...

MON - TUE...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
HAVE UPDATED THE MARINE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDS. SEAS CONT TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE...THEREFORE THE SCAS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 4 FEET ALONG THE OUTER WATERS TODAY.

LONG TERM...

SUN NIGHT - MON...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY NW WINDS UP TO 20 OR 25 MPH ALONG WITH MIN RH VALUES OF 20
TO 30 PCT ACROSS SRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL AREAS WILL INCREASE THE
FIRE DANGER FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TDA. HOWEVER,
AS GREEN UP CONTINUES CONDITIONS WILL NOT WARRANT ANY RED FLAG
HEADLINES. IN THE N RH VALUES WON`T BE AS LOW AND THERE WILL BE
LESS SUNSHINE THERE TDA AS WELL. FAIRLY LGT WINDS SATURDAY AND RH
VALUES ABOUT 10 PCT HIGHER SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE DANGER FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$