000
FXUS61 KGYX 200234
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1034 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...PRODUCING SHOWERS.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY.
THE FRONT WILL SHIFT BACK SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF WET
WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1030 PM...NO SIGNIF FORECAST CHANGES FOR THE OVERNIGHT...JUST SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS. SHRA STILL ON
TRACK TO EN FROM W TO E BETWEEN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AND LATE MON
MORNING. WE SHOULD BE NEAR OR AT OUR MINS LATE THIS EVE...AND THEN
STEADY OR A DEGREE OR TWO RISE IN TEMPS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

645 PM...INDIVIDUAL SHRA ALONG WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SE...AS BAD OF SHRA TRACKS SLOWLY WEST. MID-UPPR LVL RIDGING AHEAD
OF THE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL MAKE PROGRESS OF THE
FRONT SLOW...AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING SEVERAL HOURS OF
SHRA...OR OCCNL RAIN TO THE AREA AS IT MOVES THRU. MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MID-LVL TROUGH DIGS A BIT LATE TONIGHT...AND COULD BRING SOME
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS TO ERN AND NR ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SRN NH
SHOULD START TO SEE SHRA END BEFORE DAYBREAK...WITH PRECIP ENDING
FROM W TO E DURING THE FIRST PART OF MON MORNING. TWEAKED
SKY/TEMPS A BIT AS WELL. MINS...ESPECIALLY IN S AND W ZONES LOOK
TO OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUSLY...A S/WV MOVG ESEWD ALONG THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW A WEAK SFC LOW AND ASSOC WARM FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE W TONIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND WIDESPREAD SHWRS CAN BE
EXPCTD TO SPREAD QUICKLY FM W-E OVERNIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO RFCQPF
AMTS FOR OVERNIGHT WHICH WERE BTWN .25-.50 WITH THE HIEST AMTS
FURTHER N. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE MILD ON THE MOIST SSELY FLOW
AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DVLP. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
GUID FOR OVERNIGHT MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT EXITS TO THE E IN THE MRNG BRINGING WITH
IT AN END TO THE SHWRS. THE AFTN SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY AND
MILD BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW AFTN INSTBLTY SHWRS AS A VERY WEAK
FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE N. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT MON NIGHT
AND WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE THAT WILL REMAIN...SO NO CLEARING
EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN MAY DEVELOP IN SOME AREAS MON
NIGHT DUE TO LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL VENTILATION. RFC QPF WAS USED
FOR MON WITH HIGHEST QPF AMTS OVER NRNMOST AREAS BUT STILL ALL
AREAS REMAIN UNDER .25 INCHES. STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUID FOR
MAX/MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STALLED
FRONT WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER. USED ECMWF FOR TIMING OF SYSTEMS. THIS RESULTS IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SOME CONVECTION. BEHIND THIS LOW A COOL NW
FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL DRY OUT MOST AREAS ALTHOUGH SOME
UP SLOPE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE OVER COASTAL AND MARINE
AREAS LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN ONSHORE FLOW
ESTABLISHES ITSELF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR TO IFR CONDS WILL SPREAD FROM S-N TONIGHT IN
DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUES MORNING
BEFORE IMPROVING BY AFTERNOON TO VFR CONDS AS THE WARM FRONT EXITS
TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER MON NIGHT SO PATCHY
FOG EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP PSBLY LOWERING CONDS TO IFR.

LONG TERM...
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUE-THU. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...A WEAK SFC AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING AN INCREASING SELY FLOW TO DVLP AND
SLOWLY BUILD THE SEAS, SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 5AM-3PM
MONDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT MONDAY, A WEAK
VARIABLE FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING WINDS/SEAS TO DIMINISH LATE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.


LONG TERM...
WIND AND WAVES MAY REACH SCA LEVELS THU INTO FRI AS LOW PRESSURE
AND A COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA AND HIGHER RH VALUES ALONG WITH GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR EXPECT FIRE WX DANGER TO BE LOW THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...