Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 190654 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 254 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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MESOSCALE MODEL SUITE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER DAY TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY MIXED IN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE NW FACING HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UPSLOPING WILL OCCUR. FURTHER SOUTH...DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
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WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP THROUGH THE 30S OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MANY AREAS ALONG THE COAST TO BE AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT HAS NOT ALREADY RECEIVED A KILLING FREEZE. QUESTION REMAINS WITH THE GRADIENT WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. A LIGHT NORTHWEST BREEZE MAY KEEP SOME AREAS JUST ABOVE FREEZING. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE NEXT LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES SOUTHEAST. PRECIP WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR MONDAY TO REMAIN DRY.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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MONDAY NIGHT BEGINS WHAT WILL BE QUITE A LONG STRETCH OF WET WEATHER FOR THE NORTHEAST. ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A STRONG TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. DOWNSTREAM OF US IN THE ATLANTIC A STRONG BERMUDA HIGH AND SUGGESTIONS OF A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EAST ATLANTIC SET THE STAGE FOR A BLOCKING PATTERN. A LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY. AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP AND ROTATED AROUND THE UPPER LOW THE SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF SHORE IN THE ATLANTIC, SETTING US UP FOR A CLASSIC NOR`EASTER BY WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE ISN`T THE ONLY LOW DEVELOPING AS THE 500MB LOW ALSO CLOSES OFF JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH A CUT OFF LOW OVERHEAD AND BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE DOWNSTREAM THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO GO... AND IT SITS AND SPINS IN THE GULF OF MAINE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS WITH ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST... THIS SCENARIO IS NOT SET IN STONE. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE BLOCKING PATTERN HAS ONLY BEGUN TO FORM IN THE N ATLANTIC... WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG LOW OFF SPAIN... HOWEVER THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE GONZALO STILL NEED TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY FOR THE HIGH TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF THE BLOCK OR A DELAY IN ITS FORMATION COULD STILL SPARE US SOME MOISTURE FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND... NAEFS ANOMALIES SHOW A PERIOD OF OVER 48 HOURS WITH 90TH PERCENTILE MOISTURE... AND ANALOG GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST VERY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE A REALISTIC POSSIBILITY. OVERALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN MIDWEEK. THIS MAY RESULT IN THE FLASHIER RIVERS REACHING MINOR FLOOD STAGE... AS WELL AS MORE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS. LONG TERM... CEILINGS WILL BEING TO LOWER TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO MVFR AND REMAIN IN IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY. WIND SHEAR MAY BE A CONCERN FOR COASTAL SITES ON WEDNESDAY AS THE JET PASSES OVERHEAD.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS. LONG TERM... DEVELOPING LOW WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON... REACHING GALE STRENGTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND UPPER END OF SMALL CRAFT FOR THE BAYS.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023>028. NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ013-014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
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&& $$ MC/JC

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