Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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240 FXUS61 KGYX 091131 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 631 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
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630 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST METARS. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS. PREV DISC... AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA. A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER TODAY...WE`LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME. HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THEN TODAY. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT. THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS. MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END THE WEEKEND. WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS TO RELOAD. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH 14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN. LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS. SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR BEACH EROSION AS WELL. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023- 024. NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154.
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