Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 201643 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1243 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TODAY. A WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 1230 PM UPDATE...CLOUD COVER IS DECREASING A BIT...BUT STILL WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS THE CWA. PULLED BACK ON HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN AS CURRENT OB TRENDS WERE SHOWING 4-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. 1000 AM UPDATE...HAD TO LOWER TEMPS AND INCREASE SKY COVER. LOW STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS COOLER THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT CLOUD COVER WILL MIX OUT AND MOST AREAS WILL BE IN STORE FOR AN OVERCAST DAY TODAY. OVER THE WATERS THE WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 24 KNOTS AND MESO SCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING CONSISTENT 25 KNOT GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AN SCA MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED BEFORE THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE 615 AM...QUICK UPDATE...MAINLY FOR TEMPS...AS THEY ARE QUITE VARIABLE THIS MORNING ON THE COASTAL PLAIN...RANGING FROM NEAR 30 IN SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS /KSFM IS 28 WHILE NEARBY MESONET AT N BERWICK IS 44 AND SPRINGVALE IS 41/. ALSO MADE SOME SKY ADJUSTMENTS AS SOME AS STRATOCU IS WORKING ACROSS NH...AND WILL MAKE FOR CLOUDY START IN WESTERN AND NRN NH...AS WELL AS FAR WRN ME...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO SHOW THAT THESE CLOUDS DO MIX OUT LATER THIS MORNING. PREVIOUSLY...AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY...WILL SEE SW FLOW START TO PUSH IN WARMER AIR. EXPECT SEVERAL WAVE OF CIRRUS THRU THE DAY...BUT SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME SUN FROM COMING THROUGH. SW WINDS PUSH UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH...MAYBE A FEW GUSTS ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...AND A FEW SPOTS REACHING 70 IN INTERIOR SRN NH AND SW ME. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MOVE IN THIS EVENING...AND ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF SUN WILL LIMIT THE MIXING OF THE S-SW WINDS...SHOULD STILL SEE 5-10 MPH WIND IN A LOT OF SPOTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOIST AIR TO RIDE IN AND KEEP THE MINS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. LOWS IN THE 50S WILL SEEM BALMY AFTER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. SW BOUNDARY LYR FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL LKLY DEVELOP SOME COASTAL STRATUS AND FOG. GIVEN A PERSISTENT SFC FLOW STRATUS SEEMS A GOOD BET...AND NOT EXPECTING A DENSE FOG. THERE IS A WEAK AND BROAD LOW SITTING OFF THE FLORIDA COAST THIS MORNING...AND MODELS WANT TO PICK IT UP IN THE 500MB FLOW AND DRAG IT NE...MOVING OFFSHORE. THERE IS NOTHING VERY DYNAMIC ABOUT IT...AND IT LOOKS TO KEEP FAR ENOUGH E TO KEEP MOST OF ITS PRECIP OFFSHORE. ONLY CONCERN IS THAT IF MAY PRODUCE WEAK AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS ON ITS NW SIDE AS IT MOVES THRU SUN MORNING...AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT. HAVE PUT SOME 20ISH POPS IN THE FORECAST SUN MORNING TO COVER THIS FOR NOW...AND SEE WHAT LATER MODEL RUNS COME UP WITH. THINK SUNDAY WILL START OUT FAIRLY CLOUDY BETWEEN CLOUDS IN THE N FORM WAA AND LOW STRATUS...HOWEVER...WILL SEE SOME RIDGING MOVE IN AT ALL LEVELS BEHIND THAT WEAK OFFSHORE LOW....AND BEFORE THE FRONT COMES IN...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES LATE MORNING INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES...EXCEPT FOR THE IMMEDIATE MID-COAST WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON COULD SEE SOME SHRA OR EVEN A FEW TSRA DEVELOPING IN NRN AND WRN ZONES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY AS TDS RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 60S...BUT A TRIGGER WILL BE HARD TO FIND UNTIL THE SFC FRONT ACTUALLY MOVES THROUGH...BUT THAT WILL NOT BE UNTIL SUN EVENING. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. A TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND IS FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS...WITH A CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH THE COOLEST AIR OF THE UPCOMING WEEK TO ARRIVE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. RISING HEIGHTS AND AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BRING STEADILY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR THRU TODAY...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A AN HOUR OR TWO OF FOG AT KLEB OR KHIE THIS AM. COASTAL FOG/STRATUS MOVE IN THIS EVENING...AND WILL BRING THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND KAUG TO IFR OR LOWER MID-LATE EVENING...WITH MVFR CIGS AND SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT INLAND LOCATIONS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED BY PROBABLY NOT UNTIL MIDDAY SUNDAY. LONG TERM... MON AM...AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. TUE...SCT MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AND COULD PEAK WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT AROUND SUNSET...BUT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS PRES GRADIENT SLACKENS. HOWEVER..THE PERSISTENT SW COULD PUSHES SEAS UP TO AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. LONG TERM... MON - TUE...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ KISTNER

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