-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 151425
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1025 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND WILL BE
QUICKLY OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UPDATE...A FEW TWEAKS TO THE FCST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. HAVE
SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE CLOUDS AND SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF
POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE INCREASED SUN TODAY WILL
HAVE TO LOOK AT INCREASING HIGH TEMPS A BIT. NO OTHER CHGS AT THE MOMENT.


PREV DISC...AFTER A MOSTLY SUNNY START TO THE DAY CLOUDS WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES AS BEST MID LEVEL LIFT SWINGS BY
TO THE NORTH. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE IN
THE EARLY EVENING IN WESTERN ZONES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MAY SEE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR
NORTHWEST MAINE DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHIFTS IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH AND RANGING THROUGH THE 60S AWAY
FROM THE COAST IN THE SOUTH.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CROSS THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO END FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND
MIDNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS IN FAR EASTERN ZONES. WILL SEE PARTIAL CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS KICK INTO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT
SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY IN NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS.

UPPER LOW PASSING BY TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
CROSSING THE REGION DURING THE DAY. WILL SEE PARTY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST ZONES MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S IN
THE NORTH. EXPECT HIGH RANGING THROUGH THE 70S IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPR LVL SHORT WAVE MOVES SLOWLY E ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NGT AND
FRIDAY...WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF ENERGY JUST TO OUR N. STILL MODELS
BRING RH S INTO THE FCST AREA ALONG WITH A TROF OF LOW PRES AT THE
SFC WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
ACROSS NRN ZONES. HIGH PRES TO THE S WILL HELP PRODUCE FAIR WX
ACROSS SRN ZONES. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES THRU FRIDAY NGT AND
SATURDAY BUT WITH LESS RH AND A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRES AT THE SFC SO
EXPECTING LESS OF A CHC OF ANY -SHRA. AN UPR LVL RIDGE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN U.S. SUNDAY THRU MONDAY WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME A SW FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SFC BRINGING IN WARMER AIR BUT ALSO
BRINGING IN MORE MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPS WITH A
SLGT CHC OF -SHRA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NGT THEN A CHC OF -SHRA MONDAY
THRU TUESDAY.

GENERALLY USED BLEND OF ECMWF, GFS40, HPC QPF, MEX MOS AND ECE MOS
AND WNA4 FOR THE LONG TERM FCST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR TODAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING....IMPROVING AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR ON THURSDAY.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...MAINLY VFR THRU THE
LONG TERM FCST PERIOD EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIG/VSBY PSBL WITH
ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA ACROSS NRN AREAS TO INCLUDE HIE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT LATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...SCA WIND GUSTS PSBL
THURSDAY EVENING OVER THE OPEN WATERS. SEAS AT SCA LEVELS LIKELY
THURSDAY NGT AND MAYBE INTO FRIDAY OVER OPEN WATERS. OTRW WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE LONG TERM FCST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
TFH