-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 131049
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
650 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY AND WILL LINGER OFFSHORE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
645 AM UPDATE...A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST EARLY ON TODAY WITH THE ADDITION OF MORE CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE CWA TODAY. WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WE SHOULD HAVE A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN ZONES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. EVEN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW MAY OCCUR IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TOWARD THE COAST...LESS CLOUD COVER IS
FORESEEN DUE TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...A GOOD 5 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN AVERAGE
TODAY DEPENDING ON YOUR LOCATION IN THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MAXES
TOOK A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV/NAM 2M GUIDANCE WHICH YIELDED HIGHS IN
THE 50S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND OTHER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
INTERIOR...WITH 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE WHITES AND WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY IN THE 30S.

WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH
LIKELY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A CLEARING TREND IS LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR...HOWEVER
SKIES WILL PROBABLY NOT GO COMPLETELY CLEAR DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVERHEAD. NO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME AS THE
PROGRAM HASN/T STARTED YET FOR THE AREAS THAT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH.
TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S AT THE COAST WHERE THE
PROGRAM WAS ACTIVATED ON MAY 10.

NICE DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND LIGHTER WINDS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME UNSEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED FROST OR FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHERN ZONES AS CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOOKING FOR LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S IN THE
SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN FLOW
FLOODING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. A WARM FROM APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS EDGING INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT EXPECT THE BULK OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY TO COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT QUICKLY CATCHES UP WITH THE WARM FRONT. SHOULD SEE MUCH
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

EXPECT SHOWERS TO PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF QUEBEC
AND INTO THE MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS TO GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON THURSDAY.

COULD SEE A BRIEF SHOWER IN NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MAKES IT`S CLOSEST APPROACH BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL LIKELY JUST
GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AND VARIABLE CLOUDS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT VARIABLE
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY.

LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS DIVERGE AT THIS POINT IN THE
FORECAST MAINLY IN TIMING OF RETURN FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL LIKELY INCLUDE SOME LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SUNDAY BUT CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...ALTHOUGH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT
TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WESTERLY SFC
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE TODAY.

LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA FOR ALL EXCEPT CASCO BAY TODAY FOR WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 KT AND SEAS AOA 5 FT. CONDITIONS SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY RH VALUES LOWERING TO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE ARE EXPECTED TODAY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL GUST 20
TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. THANKFULLY WE HAD SOME GOOD WETTING RAINS IN
THE LAST FEW DAYS AS WELL AS RAPID GREEN-UP SO THE THREAT FOR
RAPID FIRE SPREAD SEEMS LOW AT THIS TIME. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
IN STORE FOR TUESDAY...EXCEPT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-
     154.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...MLE