-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 191059
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
659 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OUT TO SEA AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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WILL UPDATE TO LOWER CHC OF -SHRA THIS MORNING OVER INTERIOR ZONES
OF SE NH AND SW ME...BUT CONT SLGT CHC/CHC OVER COASTAL ZONES PER
RADAR WHICH SHOWS ACTIVITY STILL FORMING NEAR THE COAST AND
MOVING TO THE SE. LDS SHOWING LIGHTNING IN ECHOES WELL OFFSHORE
WHICH ARE BEYOND OUR COASTAL WATERS. TSTMS ARE MOVING TO THE SE
AWAY FROM THE FCST AREA. WILL KEEP PATCHY F IN NRN VALLEYS A
COUPLE HOURS LONGER THIS MORNING PER VIS SATELLITE AND METAR
REPORTS.

HIGH PRES DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TDA. A WRM FNT MOVES IN FROM THE SW
WHILE AT THE SAME TIME A CD FNT IS PRESSING SE FROM CANADA. THIS
WILL CONT ONSHORE FLOW TDA WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS OVER SE NH AND
SW AND COASTAL ME SLOW TO LIFT TDA. COULD SEE SOME BREAKS MIDDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A BATCH OF -SHRA MOVING SE FROM THE MID AND SW COAST
OF ME TO THE GULF OF MAINE. THESE -SHRA KEEP REGENERATING NEAR THE
COAST AND MOVE OFFSHORE. WILL SHOW A CHC OF PRCP THIS AREA FOR A
WHILE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE PATCHY VALLEY F AS TEMPS HAVE
COOLED CLOSE TO DEW POINTS UNDER MOSTLY CLR SKIES WITH LGT WINDS.
THE APPROACHING FRONTS WILL BRING IN CLOUDS N AND CENTRAL WHILE
ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA MOVE INTO SRN AREAS LATER TDA. PRCP AMOUNTS
WILL BE LGT...USED A BLEND OF RFC/HPC QPF. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 60S EXCEPT 50S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO ONSHORE MARINE FLOW AND
LACK OF MUCH SUNSHINE. BEST CHC TO HIT 70 ACTUALLY OVER NRN NH
WHERE THEY MAY SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
AFTER THE EARLY MORNING F BURNS OFF AND BEFORE FRONTAL CLOUDS
ARRIVE.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA WHILE THE WRM FNT MOVES IN
FROM THE SW AND THE CANADIAN CD FNT FROM THE NW. THE CD FNT
ACTUALLY PUSHES S INTO THE REGION AS THE WRM FNT STALLS OUT. THIS
SCENARIO SHOULD GIVE US LOTS OF CLOUDS AND AT LEAST SCT SHRA. AS
THE CD FNT DROPS IN FROM THE N IT WILL BRING AN END TO PRCP OVER
NRN AREAS ON MONDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD CONT AS MARINE AIR
HELPS MOISTEN LOW LEVELS AND CREATES AREAS OF F...ESPECIALLY
COASTAL AND ADJACENT INTERIOR AREAS. USED A BLEND OF RFC/HPC QPF.
USED BLEND OF NAM/GFS AND MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE NUMERICALS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT ON LONGWAVE PATTERN THROUGH
LATE NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY A FLAT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST AND LEAVES THE FORECAST AREA IN
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER...FALLING
HEIGHTS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SOME DEGREE OF EASTERN TROUGH
EMERGES. WITH MEAN JET AXIS OVERHEAD OR NEARBY...THE AREA FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRAVEL
EASTWARD ALONG A BOUNDARY SEPARATING SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH FROM EARLY
SPRING CHILL.

IN THE DAILIES...UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH IFR/MVFR
CIG ...GENERALLY FROM 500 TO 2000 FEET... FROM STRATUS OVER SE NH
AND SW AND COASTAL ME ZONES... INCLUDING PSM, CON, PWM. RKD AND
AUG TAFS. SOME RADIATION F OVER INT SECTIONS MAY IMPACT HIE AND
LEB. COMPLEX WX PATTERN BRINGS CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHRA TO THE
REGION THRU THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD WITH STRATUS LIFTING TDA
BUT RETURNING TNGT ALONG WITH PATCHY F.

LONG TERM...

TUE - THU...AREAS OF MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...WILL UPDATE TO INPUT LATEST
OBSERVED DATA WHICH WILL RESULT IN NO MORE THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO
THE PREVIOUS FCST. TSTMS OVER THE OCEAN ARE JUST BEYOND THE
COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING TO THE SE AWAY FROM THE COASTAL WATERS
SO NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR MARINE ZONES. ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES THRU THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH WINDS STAYING BELOW SCA
LEVELS WHILE SEAS SLOWLY BUILD...MOST LIKELY REACHING SCA LEVELS
LATE TNGT AND MONDAY OVER THE OPEN WATERS AND PERHAPS NEARING THE
5 FT CRITERIA OVER THE BAYS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...

WED - THU...SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH THE THREAT OF SHRA AND HIGHER RH VALUES ALONG WITH GREEN UP
CONTINUING TO OCCUR EXPECT FIRE WX DANGER TO BE LOW THRU THE WEEK.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$