Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 010640 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 240 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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TODAY AN INVERTED TROF WILL BE THE FOCUS OF WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LOW PRES RESPONSIBLE WILL MEANDER EWD TODAY. ATTM THE CONVERGENT AXIS IS FOCUSING PCPN ACROSS PA. GRADUALLY THIS WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS SRN NEW ENGLAND THRU THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING ACROSS PA...AND COOLING FROM S OF KALB TO NEAR KBDL. THIS IS ALSO THE CORRIDOR THAT HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE FOCUSES MOST OF THE PCPN TODAY AS WELL. I/M INCLINED TO BELIEVE GUIDANCE IS ONTO SOMETHING IN THIS CASE...AND BASED POP FORECAST OFF A BLEND OF REGIONAL SCALE NWP...INCLUDING THE HRRR...ARW...AND NMM. THE RESULT IS INCREASE TO LIKELY POP FOR SRN NH...WITH A SHARP DECREASE IN RNFL CHANCES TO THE N. MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLISH DAY...AS READINGS WON/T BUDGE MUCH WITH NE FLOW AND WITHOUT SUNSHINE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
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AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...THE INVERTED SFC TROF WILL ALSO PULL EWD AND DRAG PCPN WITH IT. THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS...SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER FOR SERN ZONES THRU THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST...SO LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILDER YET AGAIN. BY THU HIGH PRES BUILDS IN TO THE N AND E...ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL CLEAR CLOUDS OUT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A REBOUND TO MORE SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPS.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY TO SET UP ANOTHER MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WITH OCEAN STRATUS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AFTER A FAIRLY SUNNY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S WITH COOLEST TEMPS ALONG THE COAST. STRATUS QUICKLY OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. DREARY LOOKING START TO THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS WHICH WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 60S WITH COOLEST READINGS ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE COAST. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE NORTH ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN MAINE. THIS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST AREA. LATEST GFS SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCH STORM TOTALS IN FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE EASTERN WHITES. RAIN WILL EXIT EASTERN ZONES SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD BRING CLEARING TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. SHOULD SEE A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. HUGE CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL ROTATE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT TIMING OF THESE WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY SO WILL BE LOOKING AT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING TO THE N OF INVERTED TROF. LOWER CIGS ARE LURKING BENEATH THIS STRATUS DECK OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AND SHOULD CREEP NWD THRU SUNRISE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE ON BRINGING IT NWD...SO BACKED OFF IN THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. EXPECT THAT ANY PCPN SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO KPSM AND KCON TODAY...BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR MVFR THRU THE DAY...DROPPING BACK DOWN TOWARDS 1000 FEET AGAIN TONIGHT...BEFORE CLEARING THU. LONG TERM...VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH IFR/LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING IN COASTAL AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR ON SUNDAY.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...SCA IN EFFECT THRU THU MORNING. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TODAY ON NE FLOW. LONG TERM...SCA`S MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
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&& $$ LEGRO/SINSABAUGH

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