Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KGYX 051344 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 944 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BRINGING GENERALLY COOL AND WET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST WILL BRING RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESULTING IN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
944 AM...COOL DAMP DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. WARMEST AND DRIEST WEATHER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE UPPER CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. INGESTED THE CURRENT MESONET INTO NEAR TERM GRIDS FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE...OTHERWISE NIL OTHER CHANGES. PREV DISC... UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. DZ WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING...WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CLOUDS AS THE DAY WARMS UP. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...S/WV TROF AXIS IS CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS HOUR. AS IT DOES SO...RNFL IS MOVING EWD INTO DOWNEAST ME. HAVE CUT POP BACK FROM W TO E IN LINE WITH BACK EDGE OF PRECIP. SOME WEAK LIFT AND SATURATED LOW LEVELS COULD LEAD TO SOME DZ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN NH THIS MORNING. BETWEEN SYSTEMS THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. BUT NE FLOW CONTINUES...AND THE COAST AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS WILL REMAIN COOL AND CLOUDY. WELL INLAND...ACROSS NRN NH AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY...SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A STRONGER S/WV TROF OFF THE COAST OF FL WILL MOVE NEWD TODAY AND NEAR NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH IT AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ME. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FARTHER E WITH THE SFC LOW...AS ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW PIVOTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND KICKS IT OUT TO SEA. STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL SKIRT COASTAL AREAS...AND WILL CONTINUE LIKELY POP FOR THESE AREAS. HAVE CUT BACK POP FARTHER NW THOUGH WITH LATEST TRENDS. BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW PRES...S/WV RIDGING LOOKS TO TRY AND TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION BRIEFLY. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF FRI ON THE DRIER SIDE. COOLER NE FLOW CONTINUES...BUT WILL BE WEAKER...AND BROKEN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS DURING THE DAY THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. UPPER LOW WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROF FRI AND SWING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS CLOSE TO OR INTO SWRN NH ZONES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HEMISPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND OFF SHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND THESE TWO TROUGHS WILL DEVELOP INTO CUT OFF LOWS, THE EASTERN ONE SITTING OVER DELMARVA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE NORTHEAST UNDER A GENERALLY COOL AND WET REGIME. MODELS TRY TO BREAK DOWN THIS CUT OFF BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND MOVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHEAST BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH CUT OFF LOWS, HEMISPHERIC BLOCKING, AND PLENTY OF DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD THAT IS THREE STRIKES AGAINST THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED AND WILL THUS HEDGE TOWARDS THE STATUS QUO OF COOL AND WET FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. ON FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND MOVE NORTHWARDS BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS THE SYSTEM HAS LITTLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ON SUNDAY A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING AN PERIOD OF HEAVIER RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MOVING INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WEAK RIDGING COULD MOVE IN MONDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS IF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ABLE TO MOVE OUT IN TIME. ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER WITH LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE STUCK WITH THE BLEND FOR NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD IFR NEAR THE COAST...WITH MVFR INLAND...AS RNFL MOVES INTO DOWNEAST ME. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT WITH DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...BUT WIDESPREAD MVFR IS STILL LIKELY IN COOL...MOIST...NE FLOW. ANOTHER AREA OF RA WILL PASS CLOSE TO THE COAST TONIGHT...WITH PWM...AUG...AND RKD MOST LIKELY TO SEE STEADY PCPN. SFC GUSTS TO 20 KTS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. LONG TERM...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON IMPACTING ALL SITES WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR IN RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDER. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...LOW PRES CROSSING THE GULF OF ME TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS. A LITTLE STRONGER LOW PRES COULD BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR GALE FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS. WINDS AND ESPECIALLY SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH FRI. LONG TERM...A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SEAS RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF SCA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. EXPECT TO SEE SCA ON THE OUTER WATERS. && .FIRE WEATHER... AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THIS MORNING. BEHIND IT COOL...NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES. MORE RAIN WILL BRUSH THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY COASTAL ZONES. COOL AND MOIST WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE TO HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SHOWERY OVER THE WEEKEND. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL COMBINE WITH NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. FORECAST SURGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST FORT POINT AND SEACOAST NH MOST LIKELY TO SEE COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO REVIEW 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS ON POTENTIAL HEADLINES. NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY...AND RESIDUAL SEAS WILL LINGER AS WELL. HIGH TIDES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SURGE TO SURPASS FLOOD STAGE...ESPECIALLY FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS SOUTH. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ ES

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.