000
FXUS61 KGYX 121851
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
251 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH
OF NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY BRING AN END TO THE
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED LATER ON. OTHERWISE...SOME PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT WHERE SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT AND
WINDS GO CALM. THE GUSTY WINDS OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIE DOWN
PRETTY QUICKLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY
WITH HEATING ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE THE
AIR WELL ALOFT WILL BE THE COLDEST. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT WE WILL BE MISSED BY THE BULK OF
THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NEW 00Z ECMWF IS NOW IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST GFS WITH THIS SCENARIO. HAVE THEREFORE BACKED DOWN
ON POPS AND QPF FOR LATE THURSDAY...THURSDAY NIGHT...AND EARLY
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE AT DECENT RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF ZONES THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT EVEN THIS MAY NOT
HAPPEN AT THIS POINT. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH
AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR. WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
FRIDAY NIGHT PRODUCING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE NORTH AND
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH. SATURDAY LOOKING LIKE A REAL GEM
WITH ABUNDANT SUN...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPS RANGING THROUGH
THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
RETURN FLOW BRINGING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COOL NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
MAY PRODUCE AN AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE A DRY DAY...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT
CLOUDIER.

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY BRINGING WARM AND
MUGGY AIR TO THE REGION. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS
RANGING THROUGH THE 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL HOLD READINGS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ON IT. LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO TRACK EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN ZONES BRINGING RAIN THROUGH THE 1ST HALF OF THE DAY BEFORE
PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER ON THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTHERNMOST NH WHERE SOME MVFR IN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SCA THIS EVENING...THEN NO ISSUES FORESEEN THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...NO PROBLEMS NOTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
     153.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-
     154.

&&

$$