Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 152258 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 658 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... HAVE UPDATED THE FCST. DROPPED THE WIND ADV SINCE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT MEETING CRITERIA AND WILL STAY BELOW CRITERIA THRU THE NGT. STILL SHOULD CONT TO BE WINDY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MUCH LESS THAN EXPECTED BUT STILL SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL QPF THRU THE NGT. BACKED OFF ON QPF AMOUNTS THRU THE NGT. COLD FNT MOVING THRU NH AT THIS TIME WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM S TO W NW. STEADIER PRCP WILL EASE UP A COUPLE HOURS OR SO AFTER THE FNT MOVES THRU AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FNT. FOR THE REST OF THIS EVENT HAVE LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER WRN ZONES TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OVER OUR ERN MOST ZONES. MANY RIVERS IN NH AND WRN MAINE ARE IN FLOOD OR RISING TO FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...COASTAL AREAS ARE ESCAPING THE BRUNT OF ANY FLOODING DUE TO LACK OF SNOW MELT AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WILL LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH UP ALL AREAS DUE TO FLOODING OR THE POTENTIAL THAT THE LARGER RIVERS MAY SWELL TO BANKFUL AS CRESTS MOVE DOWNSTREAM INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BRINGING THE RAIN AND SNOW MELT FED WATERS. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FNT EXPECT PRCP TO MIX WITH THEN CHANGE TO SN AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET. BEST CHC FOR SN/SLEET WILL BE ACROSS THE N/MT ZONES WHERE SOME LGT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BLACK ICE MAY BECOME AN ISSUE IN THE N/MT ZONES TOWARD DAYBREAK AS TEMPS DROP QUICKLY BELOW FREEZING...AND INTO THE 20S IN MANY OF THESE AREAS. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S BY DAYBREAK. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BUFFET THE REGION DURING THE MORNING BUT WILL LET UP SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOST AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS TO SEE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. FARTHER NORTH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS WILL AGAIN DROP BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH AND MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SOUTH. CLEAR AND VERY COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA. LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUING TO HOLD POLAR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A CHILLY EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE COASTLINE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DETERIORATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN A FEW WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP COOL...AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION...WITH PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY. IN THE NORTH...SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY TONIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. VFR WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVED DATA. WILL CONT THE GLW WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 45 KT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. STRONG S WINDS SHIFT TO THE W NW AS A COLD FNT MOVES W TO E ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. GALES CONT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN WINDS AND SEAS DROP OFF. LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>028. NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NHZ001>010-013-014. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$

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