Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 270031 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 731 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL RACE NORTHEAST INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 720 PM UPDATE: FORCAST AMOUNTS ON TRACK. CENTER OF SFC LO JUST NW OF 40N/70W BENCHMARK TRACKING NE. BANDS OF HVY SNOWFALL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FA WITH SOME RATES OF 1-2 INCHES/HR AT TIMES. REPORTS OF NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SRN ME AND NH DUE TO THE HEAVY WET SNOW WEIGHING DOWN BRANCHES...MORE OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED AS ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN DVLPS AND MOVES N AS THE SFC/MID LVL LOW DEEPEN AND WRAPAROUND SNOWS DEVELOP AS IT PASSES OFF TO OUR E. EXPECTING CONDITONS TO BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVER SRN AREAS OF NH/ME LATER TONIGHT. FCST SNOW AMTS LOOK GOOD ATTM WITH NO CHANGES TO THE TOTALS. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY NEAR CAPE HATTERAS THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE AS THE SYSTEM HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARDS CAPE COD. ANY RAIN OR SLEET HAS QUICKLY CHANGED TO SNOW OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WITHIN ABOUT AN HOURS TIME OF THE ONSET OF PRECIP...VISIBILITIES QUICKLY DROP TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN HEAVY SNOW. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE SNOW ENTERS NORTHERN AREAS. EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A CLEAR BANDED SIGNATURE IN THE 12Z MODEL SUITE AND ALSO BANDED PRECIPITATION LINING UP ON CURRENT RADAR ANIMATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...LIGHTNING IS NOTED IN MANY OBERVATIONS NEAR NYC. THIS CONVECTION WILL ROLL NORTH...AND THUNDERSNOW IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING. CURRENT THINKING...AND THE GRIDDED PACKAGE IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...HAVE ADDED A FEW ITEMS... - MORE WIND IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WET SNOW AND WIND MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES. - HAVE UPPED SNOWFALL TOTALS BASED ON AFOREMENTIONED BANDING BY AN INCH OR SO. SO FAR...PLENTY OF WATER IS IN THE SNOWPACK - ADDED SOME POCKETS OF SLEET FOR THE EVENING HOURS AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF 0C AIR ARRIVES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE H7 LOW TONIGHT. SLEET MAY KEEP ACCUMULATIONS DOWN ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST. HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS...LOCALLY NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF A FOOT...WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS BACK TO OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING. THIS...AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN INVERTED TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SET UP A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF PORTLAND. MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FULL NORLUN TROUGH EVENT AND EXACTLY WHERE THIS WOULD OCCUR HOWEVER. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. LINGERING CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH EARLY NOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER A MOSTLY CLEAR START TO THE NIGHT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FROM WEST. WILL SEE ANOTHER VERY CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS NORTH AND LOWER TO MID TEENS SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING SETTING UP TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING VARIABLE CLOUDS TO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30 NORTH AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS OVER-RUNNING CONTINUES ALONG WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. AT THIS POINT EXPECT ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT. WILL SEE A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH. BROAD AREA OF OVER-RUNNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY BUT WITH MILDER TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BLOW THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WHICH SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. COLDER AIR RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLACK OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL REACH HIGH TEMPS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A SHORT STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF LIFR THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS LIFTING THEREAFTER. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING. LONG TERM...VFR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING SUNDAY...IMPROVING TO VFR MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. FLAGS ARE UP FOR GALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK OUT NEAR STORM FORCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD TONIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. LONG TERM...SCA`S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009- 012>014-018>028. NH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>010- 013-014. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$

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