Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 191910 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 310 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014 .SYNOPSIS... COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND WILL PROVIDE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF SHORE TONIGHT WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. NOT EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO BE AS EFFICIENT AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF THIS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING TO SEE FROST IN NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE GROWING SEASON ENDED LAST NIGHT...SO NO HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH OUT THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS WITH THE WARM FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD STILL SEE SOME SUN TOMORROW BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO 70 DEGREES MAY BE REACHABLE IN A FEW SOUTHERN LOCATIONS...WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S. LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS WAA AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE 50S WITH LOWS POSSIBLY NOT DROPPING OUT OF THE 60S IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN A LARGE SCALE TROUGHING PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE BROAD TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUNDAY AS A COUPLE SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT PATHS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND EVENTUALLY INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND AGAIN SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF NY STATE...WITH POSSIBLY A COASTAL STORM STEALING THE MOST MOISTURE. MODELS ARE SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN AS WELL. LINGERING SHOWERS/CLOUDS ARE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WITH. A FEW SHORT WAVES TAKE SWIPES AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AS CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVERHEAD...BUT ONLY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WINDS TURN SW. A FEW SPOTS EVEN NEAR 80 DEGREES. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HIGHS DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH ON THE COLDEST NIGHTS (TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY) TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE CT RIVER VALLEY...WHERE FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LONG TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOG WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED MONDAY AND IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MOUNTAIN TERMINALS MAY SEE MVFR CEILINGS TUESDAY IN LINGERING SHOWERS. VFR WEDNESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AFTER WARM FRONT PASSES THE REGION. GUSTS WILL BE UP TO 25 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL BE IN THE 5 FOOT RANGE ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT RIGHT NOW THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED. WILL HAVE THE NIGHT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK WHEN NEW FORECAST GUIDANCE COMES IN THIS EVENING. LONG TERM...SEAS WILL RISE ABOVE 5 FT WITH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS ON MONDAY IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ KISTNER/HANES

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