Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 271341 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 941 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY AND MOVES OFF THE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWING A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN. COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 940 AM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING IN MOST AREAS WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO BUILDING INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 20Z...ESPECIALLY IN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM AS EARLY AS 17-18Z IN THE FOOTHILLS OF MAINE AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS. A FEW STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. 555 AM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MESONET IN 1ST PERIOD GRIDS. PREV DISC... A HUMID SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AROUND PERIPHERY OF OFFSHORE HIGH. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH A FEW 70S NEAR THE COAST AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE 00Z SOUNDINGS WERE PLUS TWO TO THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS AND PROGGED TO INCREASE TO THREE TO FOUR STANDARD DEVIATIONS TODAY. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY...PROVIDING SOME WEAK FORCING OVER OUR FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCE WITH CAPES AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD BE FROM CONNECTICUT VALLEY NORTHWARD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE...WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS LATE TODAY. OTHERWISE...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. IT`LL BE A HUMID NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AND HAZE. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. ON THURSDAY...WE`LL QUICKLY DESTABILIZE WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SOME HEATING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO QUICKLY DEVELOP WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING AND SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A MILDER RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD ON SATURDAY. VERY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED AWAY FROM THE COASTAL SEA BREEZE AND ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE WIND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS MAY TRIGGER SOME GUSTY STORMS. THE EURO AND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER TO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS DURING THE DAY. THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE...BRINGING DRY AND COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN SHRA AND TSTMS. SOME TSTMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. VFR TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN FOG AND HAZE...IFR PSBL VCNTY OF KRKD AND KAUG AFT 06Z IN MARINE STRATUS AND FOG. AREAS OF MVFR EXPECTED THU IN SHRA AND TSTMS. LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT. CURRENT SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY. LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASED SOUTHWEST GRADIENT. && .FIRE WEATHER... WARM AND HUMID AIR WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THUS FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152- 154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER

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