Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 250405 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1205 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA TRACKS FURTHER EASTWARD. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY PROVIDING A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER BEFORE SHOWERS MOVE BACK IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE LOW REMAINS OVER THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS WELL TO OUR NORTH.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
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1155 PM...MINOR ESTF UPDATE TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD GRIDS TO REFLECT MESONET AND SATELLITE TREND. 1040 PM...A QUICK UPDATE MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO T/TD/WIND/SKY BASED ON CURRENT CONDS...ALTHOUGH NOTHING THAT CHANGES THE OVERALL FORECAST VERY MUCH. WIND SWILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...AND SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR. 745 PM...UPDATE TO END THE RED FLAG IN YORK CTY...AND TO GENERALLY TREND DOWN THE WINDS THIS THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW HEADS EAST...AND HIGH PRES NOSES IN LATE TONIGHT. ALREADY SEEING THE GUSTS DIMINISH...AND SHOULD SEE THE GUSTS END BY AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. PREVIOUSLY...SHOULD HAVE A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT IN STORE FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET WHEN THEY WILL FINALLY DECOUPLE. AS EXPECTED...WINDS TODAY HAVE HELD JUST SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA PULLS FURTHER AWAY EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE AND SKIES TO CLEAR OUT.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A BIT WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND TOP OUT NEAR NORMAL. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF LIFTS NE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A PRIMARY LOW TO OUR NW MOVES SLOWLY NE AND WEAKENS WHILE A SECONDARY LOW ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING S FROM THE PRIMARY LOW STRENGTHENS TO OUR S AND MOVES OUT TO SEA. THIS COMPLEX WX PATTERN WILL BRING RAIN...OR EVEN A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WITH COLD TEMPS AND A RAW EASTERLY WIND ON SATURDAY. THE VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE SHOWS THE COLUMN COOLING DUE TO EVAPORATION AND VERTICAL MOTION... WITH TEMPS COLD ENOUGH OT SUPPORT SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OVER MORE NRN AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WHILE OTHER AREAS ARE TOO WARM AT LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRCP. THE SECONDARY LOW BECOMES THE MAIN LOW AND MOVES E INTO THE MARITIMES SATURDAY NGT AS THE PRIMARY LOW WASHES OUT. THIS BRINGS AN END TO STEADIER PRCP BUT WITH A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DRIFTING OVERHEAD WE CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SHOWERS...OF RAIN OR SNOW TO PERSIST THRU THE NGT AS TEMPS CONT TO COOL DOWN. AGAIN THE BEST CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE N/MT AREAS. THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE E ON SUNDAY AND WILL CONT TO GIVE US LOTS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN OR WET SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SNOW MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN N/MT AREAS DUE TO WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER DURING THE DAY. THE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE MARITIMES ON MONDAY. THOUGH IT CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE OUR WX THE IMPACT WILL LESSEN SOMEWHAT AS RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE N/MT AREAS WITH SNOW MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS. THE CUTOFF LOW FINALLY MOVES E AS A RIDGE ALOFT AND A WEAK SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILD E INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS BREAK IN THE WET WX WILL BE SHORT LIVES AS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE WRN U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING A SFC LOW AND LEADING WARM FNT NE TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL TO OUR N OVER ERN CANADA. THESE TWO WX SYSTEMS WILL TRY TO IMPACT OUR WX...WITH THE HIGH PROVIDING FAIR WX TO OUR N AND THE LOW PROVIDING WET WX TO OUR S...WITH THE FCST AREA IN BETWEEN WITH THE CHC OF RAIN GREATER OVER SRN AREAS AND LOWER OVER NRN AREAS. USED A BLEND OF VARIOUS MODELS...PREVIOUS FCST AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE LONG TERM FCST. && .AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVE...WITH SUSTAINED DROPPING TO 10 KTS OR LESS AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN TAF SITES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PERIODS OF RAIN OR EVEN MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MVFR POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY N/MT AREAS IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...AT 1040 PM...HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE BAYS. WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BORDERLINE FOR A SEVERAL MORE HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT...DROPPING BLO SCA BY DAYBREAK. CONDS REMAIN BLO SCA THROUGH FRI NIGHT. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...E NE FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY WITH MINIMAL SCA WIND GUSTS AND SCA SEAS POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NW FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND DEPARTING SFC LOW AND FNT SUNDAY THRU MONDAY WITH SCA WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. SEAS MAY REACH MINIMAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL. WINDS DROP OFF MONDAY NGT AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BUT SEAS MAY BE SLOWER TO DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE OPEN WATERS. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ ES

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