Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 240931 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 531 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY. A BRIEF BREAK SATURDAY GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE TWEAKED POP TO REFLECT TWO AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SHOWERS. ONE IN CENTRAL ME...AND THE OTHER DRIFTING SWD THRU SWRN ME AND SRN NH. MOISTURE FEED WILL CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL ME THRU THIS MORNING...WHILE THE SRN PCPN WILL ROTATE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE IS FINALLY WOBBLING NE TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FEED IS STILL POINTED AT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RAINFALL CONTINUES. HOWEVER...OCCLUSION PROCESS IS GRADUALLY CUTTING OFF AND WEAKENING THIS FEED. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST IS A GENERAL WEAKENING OF PCPN AND A TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WILL BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL ME...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS S AND W. WITH THE BULK OF POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS ALREADY FALLEN I HAVE ALLOWED THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE. SEVERAL RIVERS ARE AT ACTION STAGE...BUT AT THE MOMENT APPEAR TO BE SLOWING TOWARDS A CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... REMAINING SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...AS S/WV RIDGING WORKS INTO THE AREA. THIS IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PARTIAL CLEARING. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PLENTY OF LINGERING RH IN THE MID LEVELS FOR CLOUDS FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING...QUICKLY CLEARING TOWARDS DAWN. THIS COMPLICATES THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS CLEARING WOULD PROMOTE CHILLY MINS WHILE CLOUDS WOULD KEEP US MORE MILD. CHOSE TO DISCOUNT THE VERY COLD...BELOW FREEZING...MAV AND USE A BLEND OF OTHER GUIDANCE. SATURDAY SHOULD BEGIN WITH PARTIAL SUN WITH BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE DAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW WILL SPREAD CLOUDS OVERHEAD...WITH SHOWERS BREAKING OUT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRIEF SHOT OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. DOWNSLOPING CONDITIONS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL MAKE SHOWERS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY THERE. COLD AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT INTENSE... SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. HOWEVER IT COULD BE A BIT BREEZY ON SUNDAY AS WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BLOW ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... THIS TIME WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS... DOWNSLOPING WINDS MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM A FEW DEGREES. GFS AND ECMWF VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN TIMING OF THE FRONT... SO THERE IS STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH POCKETS OF OCCASIONAL IFR IN HEAVIER SHRA. WAVES OF -SHRA WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...GRADUALLY DRYING OUT INTO THE EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. GUSTY NWLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY BUT THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE VFR. VFR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS HAVE RELAXED SOME...DROPPING BELOW GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER WATERS. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY SCA THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...SO AN EXTENSION MAY BE NECESSARY. LONG TERM...WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO SHORT TERM...LEGRO LONG TERM...KIMBLE AVIATION...KIMBLE/LEGRO MARINE...KIMBLE/LEGRO

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