Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 020709 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 309 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY IMPACT WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. COMPLEX WEATHER DAY TODAY. MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS LEADING SHORT WAVE ENTERS NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS. PLENTY OF JUICE REMAINS IN THE ATMOSPHERE SO SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/... MAIN FRONT WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS A MESOLOW CROSSES THE PORTLAND AREA. ANY TRAINING STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. WILL MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LESS HUMID AIR IN PLACE. SHOULD SEE GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG IN THE VALLEYS. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING IN WARM/HUMID AIR AGAIN. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF 80S ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG IT. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS... THOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING IT OUT OF THE AREA. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT... SO EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO BE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY. THE COOL/DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MORE FALL LIKE... HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM...IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING IN PATCHY DENSE FOG. TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL LOWER CEILINGS/VSBYS ONCE AGAIN...BEFORE MAKING ITS WAY TO THE COASTLINE THIS EVENING. LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A THREAT FOR VALLEY FOG EACH NIGHT. SEPTEMBER IS THE MONTH WITH THE MOST FREQUENT DENSE FOG AT OUR VALLEY TERMINALS. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE ON FRIDAY BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...NONE. $$ LONG TERM... KIMBLE

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