Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 262154 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 554 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOT BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AGAIN IN MANY SPOTS. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... 6PM UPDATE... HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT TREND. HAVE ALSO MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POP GRID TO REFLECT ZERO PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA BY MORNING. ORIGINAL DISCUSSION... MORE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT FOR THE USUAL SUSPECT LOCATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ADVANCE TOWARDS NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESS AND TIMING OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES RELATIVELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS WITH CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR THE COASTLINE EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION HEADS OUT TO SEA. COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FOLLOW LEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A LARGE RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COOL BUT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS NWLY DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS OCCUR. THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGE AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALLOWING A SWLY WARM ADVECTION PATTERN TO DEVELOP. THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME WARM HUMID AND UNSTABLE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SO MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERALL USED THE SUPERBLEND MODEL WITH SOME POP ADJUSTMENTS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... .SHORT TERM...AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR SOME IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ISOLATED MVFR IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. .LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH LATE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND MAY LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES. && .MARINE... .SHORT TERM...LONG PERIOD SWELLS MIXED IN WITH WIND WAVES WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPY SURF CONDITIONS. SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND WAVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT CASCO BAY. .LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ028. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>152- 154. && $$ NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE

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