Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 182118 AAA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 518 PM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will drift off to the southeast tonight and Thursday as a weak cold front approaches from the west. The front will cross the region Thursday night and will be followed by high pressure on Friday. High pressure will hold over the region through Saturday and will drift off to the southeast on Sunday. A slow moving cold front will approach from the west on Monday and will stall to the west of the region on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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515 PM Update... No major changes to the forecast. Skies are clear and temperatures are still warm at 5 PM. Expecting a good night of radiational cooling tonight with clear skies, light winds, and low dew points. Have added more fog to the coastal plains and the valleys to account for this. Previous discussion... Quiet weather continues across the region through the short term as high pressure remains in control over the northeast. Return flow around high pressure bringing unseasonably mild temperatures into the region today and this trend will continue tonight and Thursday. Looking for clear skies and light winds overnight with lows ranging from the mid 30s north to the mid 40s south.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Thursday will again feature mostly sunny skies and temperatures well above normal. Highs will range from the upper 60s in the north to the mid 70s in the south. A southwest wind off the water will cap temps in the mid to upper 60s in midcoast Maine. A moisture starved cold front will bring some high clouds into northwest zones in the afternoon but any showers should remain well north of the border. Weak cold front will cross the region Thursday night with little more than a period of variable clouds and a wind shift during the evening hours. May see a brief sprinkle in far northern zones but pops are generally 20 percent or less. Lows overnight will range through the 40s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The majority of the extended forecast looks like more of the same fall wx we have been experiencing. Of course that means decidedly not fall-like wx...as our climate stations are running 6 to 8 degrees above normal for Oct so far. After the trof passes early Fri...ridging aloft and surface high pressure will build NE. Return flow is forecast to bring H8 temps in the low teens NEwd...with good support across ensemble systems. Mixing likely will not reach those levels...especially with sun angle becoming more shallow by the day...but H9 should be a good estimate. With mid teens temps at that level across all guidance...widespread 70s looks likely...with a few warmer spots pushing 75. I have added a few degrees to the multi-model consensus Sat and Sun. Beyond the weekend models try and evolve the pattern towards trofing in the central CONUS...progressing it Ewd. Operational model guidance may be rushing it a bit...as ensemble guidance delays the center of the trof until late next week. As a result...the bulk of the PoP with this forecast package beyond Wed...and confined to Thu/Fri. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...VFR tonight through Thursday night with IFR/LIFR ceilings and vsby in morning valley fog. Long Term...Widespread VFR conditions expected with high pressure in control of the area. That means cooling overnight should allow for valley fog...with HIE and LEB most likely to see local LIFR conditions. Increasing moisture early next week may allow Merrimack river and MHT/CON to start seeing morning FG too. && .MARINE... Short Term...SCA`s will likely be needed for Thursday afternoon for the outer waters and Penobscot Bay. Long Term...Quiet wx expected thru the weekend with high pressure in position S of the waters. As the high moves Ewd early next week...SW return flow may allow winds and seas to approach SCA conditions Mon into Tue. More likely would be seas build in excess of 5 ft outside the bays after persistent SW flow...with winds remaining sub-SCA. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Hanes SHORT TERM...Cannon/Sinsabaugh LONG TERM...Legro

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