Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 162107 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 407 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK TONIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A POTENTIAL WEAK COASTAL STORM WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER STORM COULD AFFECT THE REGION MIDWEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES MOVING IN FROM THE SW ATTM. WILL SEE NEW SFC LOW DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT TO OUR S OVERNIGHT OCCLUDING IT. AREAS OF DZ AND SOME VERY LIGHT SN WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO A STEADIER PRECIP FROM SW TO NE THIS NE AS WARM ADVECTION PROCESS BEGIN TO PRODUCE STEADIER PRECIP. P-TYPE IN MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM CURRENT READINGS AFTER SUNDOWN...AND ACTUALLY RISE SLOWLY THRU THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT QPFS WILL BE LIGHT...WITH QPF GENERALLY A TEN OF AN INCH OR SO...SO ANY ICE ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT...AND IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO TRAVEL. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE FZRA WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS IN THE MORNING BUT SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SFC LOW WILL START TO INTENSIFY THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL SEE PRECIP BEGIN TO FOLLOW. THIS WILL HELP SURGE SOME WARM AIR IN OFF THE GULF OF ME AND COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE LOW MID 40S...WITH INLAND HIGHS IN THE N IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40. EVENTUALLY THE COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL WORK IN FROM THE N AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME SNOW BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE IN THIS AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW SHIFTS NE WED NIGHT AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SURGE OF PRECIP WED EVENING...GRADUALLY CHANGING TO SNOW FROM N TO S. WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW IN SOMERSET AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH SEVERAL INCHES IN THE NH MOUNTAINS AND AND INCH OR TWO IN THE FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE A COATING OF SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST BEFORE THU MORNING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION THURSDAY. SNOW AND RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY END IN THE MORNING WITH DRIER WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE LOW DOESN/T LOOK LIKE THE STRONG TYPE...BUT PERHAPS ENOUGH TO DELIVER A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL TO THE AREA...MAYBE EVEN A MIX ON THE COAST. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE THERE. THEREAFTER...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE ADVERTISING A PRETTY FORMIDABLE STORM FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND/OR CHRISTMAS DAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE SHOULD EXPECT A LOT OF RUN TO RUN DISCONTINUITY IN THE MODELS THAT FAR OUT AT THIS POINT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM...LOOK FOR DETERIORATION IFR AND LIFR THIS EVENING...IN RA/FOG AND LOW CIGS. SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME FZRA AT KLEB OR KHIE. THE IFR/IFR PERSISTS INTO WED MORNING...AND MAY SEE SOME OF THOSE LIFR CONDS IMPROVE TO IFR DURING WED AFTERNOON...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STUCK WITH IFR INTO WED NIGHT. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...IFR/MVFR IN RAIN/SNOW IMPROVES TO VFR ON THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LINGERING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOWER CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE IN SNOW AND/OR A MIX SUNDAY WITH COASTAL LOW. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SE FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5-7 FT IN THE OPEN WATERS BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN CLO SCA LVLS THRU WED. NW WINDS PICK UP WED NIGHT...AND MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA. LONG TERM...SCA EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS SUBSIDE THEREAFTER. SCA POSSIBLY RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007-012-013. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ008-009-014. NH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001-002-004. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003-005. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...CEMPA SHORT TERM...CEMPA LONG TERM...EKSTER

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