-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 170400
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1200 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR NORTH MONDAY WILL TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
MIDNIGHT UPDATE...
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS PRIMARILY TO POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE FACT
THAT SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA. MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER
INTO VERMONT AND MAY MOVE INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MAINE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S... TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH OVERNIGHT AND HAVE RAISED
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDDED FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS. LATEST
RADAR ANIMATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN
AREAS BEGINNING TO EXIT NEAR THE PENOBSCOT VALLEY REGION AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OF MAINE. WHILE SOME OF THIS IS DRYING UP WITH
EVAPORATIVE COOLING...RAIN IS REACHING THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES...AND ADDED PATCHY
FOG FOR MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE HRRR FOR THE TIMING OF THE EXITING
PRECIPITATION FIELDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM NY STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN AREAS. AIR
OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD SATURATE...SO EXPECT
WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THOSE AREAS THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO REACH THE GROUND AS AIR IS VERY DRY.
PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN AREAS THAT GET A SHOWER THIS
EVENING.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
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FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN
SOUTHERN AREAS COULD REACH THE MID 80S. ATMOSPHERE BECOMES A BIT
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BRINGING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FRONT
MOVES VERY THROUGH REGION WITH SHOWER THREAT CONTINUING MONDAY
NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD IN STORE. SHOULD BE A WEAK BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING THAT COULD PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SETS UP OVER
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS TRYING TO DROP A WEAK BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY BUT
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. WILL NOT GIVE IT TOO MUCH WEIGHT YET
BUT IT WILL REMAIN A FEATURE TO LOOK FOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN SHOWERS AND IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.

LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...NO FLAGS EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE... KIMBLE