-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
649
FXUS61 KGYX 061025
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
625 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this afternoon with
temperatures warming significantly ahead of it. Warm and fair
weather is again expected for Tuesday. Unsettled weather and
cooler temperatures are then likely for the middle and end of next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
620 AM Update...Little change to the going forecast early this
morning. Patches of fog will lift and gradual breaks in the
clouds will develop. Temperatures will warm nicely this
afternoon.

Previously...

The rain showers of yesterday have moved off to the east.
However, plenty of clouds still remain along with some locally
dense fog. The column will gradually dry out as the day
progresses and a cold front moves through the region this
afternoon. This will allow for increasing amounts of sun and
warmer temperatures, with most locations getting into the 65 to
75 degree range today. Sufficient moisture and forcing for ascent
associated with the departing cold front may allow for some
widely scattered convective showers on the the coastal plain
this afternoon. Prior to cold frontal passage, there may be some
coastal fog late this afternoon and evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
High pressure will build in tonight allowing for clearing and
drying conditions. Areas of river valley fog may develop
although there should be light light NW boundary layer flow
overnight. High pressure continues to dominate Tuesday with
another day with warm temperatures on tap. A blend of guidance
yields highs in the 70s at most locations, except in the 60s in
the mountains and at the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The mostly blocky pattern across the N Hemisphere mid latitudes
will continue through the end of the week into next weekend.
More locally, by mid week, we move into zonal to weakly
amplified flow between two closed lows, as the closed low to our
west drifts slowly closer through the week, and acts a wave
generator, with with chunks of energy moving into it from the NW
and ejecting it toward the E. This general pattern should once
again provide persistent onshore flow, and several rounds of
showers, similar to what we saw last week.

On Wed, itll be be mainly cloudy with showers moving in from
the W during the morning. The weak sfc low will be passing to
our S with ridging to the N and E, so this should help onshore
flow develop, which combined with any rain will mean maxes 55-60
across most of the CWA, but 60-65 in SW NH and the CT valley.
Showers should shift E of the area during Wed evening, and I
think we may see a dry spell, although continued cloudy and cool
on Thu, as that ridge to out N shift slightly to the S. This is
a fine line forecast, so if we see less of the ridge from the
N, may end up with showers again Thu. Looks like showers return
on Friday, and it stays cool in onshore flow. The weekend
remains uncertain, as the 12Z model runs have flipped to a more
progressive closed low at 500 MB, which would mean a better
chance for a dry Saturday, but this far out confidence is very
low, given the changeable models.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term...IFR conditions in low cigs and fog will gradually
improve this morning to VFR. This afternoon will be VFR with a
seabreeze developing on the immediate coast during the afternoon
hours. VFR tonight with some valley fog expected with light NW
winds. VFR day Tuesday with the seabreeze likely just remaining
offshore.

Long Term...VFR prevails Tuesday night, but will likely move to
MVFR in SHRA on Wed, with some IFR possible at time Wed night.
I think well be stuck with at MVFR Thu into Friday as several
waves move through , and with onshore flow may see IFR at times
inland, and maybe more persistent IFR at coastal terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Cold front crosses the waters today with winds
becoming west- northwesterly this evening with gusts up to 20
kts possible. Seas will be at 1-3 ft, highest outside of the
bays. Tuesday looks tranquil.

Long Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA criteria through Thu, but
may be needed on Friday as a stronger low passes S of the
waters.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Cempa/Ekster