Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 181122 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 722 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will approach from the southwest today and will gradually push east of the region tonight. A slow moving cold front will cross the region Saturday. High pressure will build in from the west Sunday through Monday and will slide offshore on Tuesday. A cold front will move in from the west Tuesday night and will cross the region on Wednesday. High pressure will build in behind the front Wednesday night through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 7am update... showers are just reaching the CT river valley and will move eastwards this morning. Have updated PoP to account for this timing. Convection further southwest will gradually expand and fill and move over coastal regions later this afternoon. Prev...Low pressure moving out of the Great Lakes will push a warm front through the region today. To our west in New York, scattered showers with elevated convection have been slowly advancing all night. These showers will move into western New Hampshire mid morning and gradually spread across Maine. Expect things to fill in after dawn as the upper level support increases but still looking at a more showery than stratiform system. Overall expect widespread precipitation amounts to be fairly moderate and have trending a bit lower with amounts and pop through today to reflect the upstream trend. While the general areal trend will be scattered there is a threat for some pockets of heavier rain. As we move into the warm sector PWAT values climb to near 2 inches which will provide plenty of moisture for any convection. The problem will be getting that convection going. Clouds remain over the region right now and even as they lift north flow will turn onshore keeping cooler and moist conditions in place. This means the threat for thunderstorms and heavy rain is confined to southern New Hampshire through evening but may expand through the coast of Maine overnight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... Overnight we see cold front slowly begin to push towards the area. Ahead of and along the front is another area to watch for heavier convective precipitation, however this looks to align to be mostly offshore by the time it arrives into our area but the immediate coastline in Maine, especially from the midcoast eastwards will again have a threat for heavier rain showers through late tonight. The front will push through during the day on Saturday leaving upslope flow and mountain showers in its wake. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The cold front pushes offshore by Saturday evening followed by clearing and a drier west to northwest flow. Scattered lingering showers are possible Sat night across central and northern areas of the forecast area but downsloping areas will remain dry. High pressure builds across the area for Sunday into Tuesday. Dry weather and warm temps are expected under this ridge of high pressure. By Tue night an approaching upper trof with an associated cold front will spread scattered showers across the area and continue until it exits to the east late Wed. A dry and cooler Canadian air mass returns for Wed night and Thu. Generally accepted the superblend model for the outlook period. && .AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Short Term... VFR conditions will slowly give way to MVFR later today as clouds and rain move into the region. MVFR will persist overnight with IFR along the coastline where onshore flow will help fog and low ceilings to form. conditions will return to VFR late Saturday after a cold front moves through. Long Term...VFR conditions expected Saturday night through Tuesday. && .MARINE... Short Term... Increasing southerly flow in teh warm sector of a cyclone will push wind gusts to 25-30kts across the outer waters and a SCA has been issued for tonight into tomorrow. The winds will decrease after the front moves through Saturday morning with seas subsiding late Saturday night. Long Term...SCA`s may be needed on the outer waters Saturday night into Sunday mainly due to seas...otherwise winds and seas expected to be below SCA criteria. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Curtis SHORT TERM...Curtis LONG TERM...Marine AVIATION... MARINE...

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