Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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689 FXUS61 KGYX 070826 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 326 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE TOWARD CAPE COD ON TUESDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AT 07Z...A 1009 MILLIBAR LOW WAS OVER EAST QUEBEC PROVINCE WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A 1026 MILLIBAR RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA. GOES INFRARED SHOWED CLOUDS OVER MOUNTAIN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVER QUEBEC. NWS DOPPLER RADAR MOSAIC AS WELL AS SURFACE REPORTS INDICATED SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. FOR TODAY...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE THE COLDER AIR WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL LATE...TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... SKIES WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL RACE NORTH-NORTHEAST JUST OFF THE EAST COAST ALONG WITH AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW. THICKER CLOUDS WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE OFFSHORE LOW WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW REACHING THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SPRAWL PRETTY FAR TO THE WEST AND MAY INTERACT A BIT WITH THE LARGER UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST. THE RESULT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FORCING FOR ASCENT MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IT/S POSSIBLE THAT MESOSCALE FORCING WILL ORGANIZE ENOUGH FOR A SHORT TIME TO ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHEASTERN NH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS BETWEEN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 2 TO 5 INCHES ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NH. LESSER SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN ZONES WHO WILL BE MORE REMOVED FROM THE BEST ASCENT. THE SREF MEAN REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...WITH WARNING AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHEASTERN AND COASTAL PLAIN ZONES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AND DO REALIZE THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR THIS SCENARIO TO PAN OUT. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD WARNING AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME BASED ON OTHER DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA. AFTER MONDAY NIGHT...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT. THIS LARGE PARENT LOW AND ASSOCIATED SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING...THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT A PERIOD OF STEADIER ACCUMULATING SNOW SOMEWHERE DURING THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME BUT SORTING OUT THE NUMEROUS IMPULSES AT THIS TIME IS A BIT OF A TOUGH TASK. MUCH OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE AGREE THAT THE POLAR VORTEX WILL PAY A VISIT THIS COMING WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR MON PM ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN NH IN -SN. LONG TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR IN SNOW EARLY MONDAY EVENING FOR MOST TERMINALS. THESE MAY IMPROVE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND FOR TUESDAY ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THIS AM AND WE SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA BY MID MORNING. QUIET THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE N TO NE WINDS ON MONDAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT AROUND OFFSHORE LOW. WE COULD SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS BY LATE TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH MONDAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT GALE WATCH ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME. LONG TERM...GALES MONDAY EVENING WILL DIMINISH TO SCA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE WATERS. && ..TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL INCREASE TO 11 FT MLLW BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH SEVERAL STRONG OCEAN LOWS TRACKING OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD...WE CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPLASHOVER ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY FROM CASCO BAY SOUTHWARD TO THE MASSACHUSETTS BORDER DURING THIS PERIOD. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ150>152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ150- 152-154. && $$ SCHWIBS/EKSTER

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