Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 051239 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 739 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK QUICKLY NORTHEAST ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TODAY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A COASTAL STORM AFFECTS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATE 2...ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE BASED ON SFC OBS AND RADAR TRENDS. PREV DISC...S/WV TROF APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL LIFT SURFACE LOW RAIPIDLY NORTHEAST TODAY. A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPANDING TO OUR SOUTH AND IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE NOW. PRECIPITATIONS IS INITIALLY FALLING AS RAIN BUT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW AS EVAPORTIVE COOLING TAKES PLACE. SHOULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 6 INCH SNOWFALL WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER INLAND. SNOW SHOULD END BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND BY MID AFTERNOON IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAYED CLOSE TO ECMWF FOR PRECIPITATION WITH 0.60 TO 0.70 ALONG THE COAST. EXPECT SOME BANDING OF PRECIPITATION AND CANT RULE OUT A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE SNOWFALL COMES IN ABOVE 6 INCHES. MOVED PRECIPITATION SHIELD INLAND FARTHER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVIORIES INLAND ONE SET OF ZONES. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE 7 TO 11 TIME FRAME IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ALONG THE NOVA SCOTIA COAST THIS EVENING AND OUT OF THE PICTURE. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS FOR THE MOST PART. SATURDAY A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS ALL AGREE ON AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THATS WHERE AGREEMENT ENDS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE QUITE COMPLEX AND WILL DEPEND ON INTENSITY OF SEVERAL STRONG SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A DIGGING LONG WAVE TROF WHICH REACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUE. AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING HOW LARGE THE SYSTEM WILL BE...EXPECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE CWA LATE MON THROUGH TUE. THE AMOUNTS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EVOLUTION AND THEN TRACK OF ANY COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED BY LATE TUE WHICH WOULD SLOW THE SYSTEM MORE THAN MODELS INDICATE. DUE TO LARGE AMOUNTS OF UNCERTAINTY OF EVOLUTION WILL NEED TO SIMPLY WATCH LATEST TRENDS OF MODELS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM LATE MON THROUGH TUE FOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL AREAS. ONCE THE SYSTEM EXITS BY TUE NIGHT A COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AS PER BLEND OF MODELS SUGGEST. FOR TUE/WED LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS FROM SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE DUE TO COLD HIGH TO NORTH LOCKING COLD AIR IN PLACE ON NORTH DRAINAGE WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOWFALL. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO IFR THIS MORNING WITH VFR RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. LONG TERM...COULD SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE VFR ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING UP THE COAST WILL LIKELY BRING LOWER CEILINGS AND SNOWFALL MON NIGHT INTO TUE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW GALE CRITERIA BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY DURING THE DAY. LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY BRINGING STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST AND TOWARD CAPE COD TUESDAY WITH GALES POSSIBLE TUE. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ018>020-023>025. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ021- 022-026>028. NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ006-008>010-012>015. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ UPDATE...TFH

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