Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 230703 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 303 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AT 06Z...A 994 MILLIBAR LOW WAS VICINITY OF THE QUEBEC/MAINE BORDER WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING FRONT WILL MEANDER EASTWARD TODAY...WITH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE BY LATER TODAY. COLD POOL WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING TODAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT UNDER THE UPPER LOW...WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST AND PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. IT`LL BE A WINDY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH AT TIMES. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THURSDAY NIGHT THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TOWARDS NEWFOUNDLAND ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH COLD AIR STILL IN PLACE ALOFT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUITE COLD OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BEST DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS... WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ANCHORED JUST OFF NEWFOUNDLAND FOR MUCH OF THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. SHORT WAVES WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR REGION.. PULLING COLDER AIR OUT OF CANADA AS THEY GET SUCKED UP INTO THE FLOW OF THE CUT OFF. FIRST UP WILL BE A WEAK CLIPPER DIVING OUT OF MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ARRIVING ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COLDER AND FOGGY ALONG THE COAST WHILE IN THE MOUNTAINS... COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. BY SUNDAY THE MAIN PORTION OF THE CLIPPER WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AS WITH MOST BLOCKING PATTERNS, CONFIDENCE DECREASE FOR THE LONGER TERM OUTLOOK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR EAST... SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NEWFOUNDLAND AND NEW BRUNSWICK. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT LOCATION, THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL RESULTING IN A GOOD SETUP FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS WITH GRAUPLE. 700MB TEMPS VARY FROM -14C /GFS/ TO -7C /ECMWF/ WHICH COMBINED WITH THE GOOD SOLAR GAIN AT THE END OF APRIL SHOULD RESULT IN SOME AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...AREAS OF MVFR IN CIGS WITH LCL IFR IN FOG...IMPROVING TO VFR WITH AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. NW SFC WND ON THU WILL GUST TO 35 KT. LONG TERM... COASTAL SITES MAY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR ADVECTION FOG FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS FLOW SHIFTS ONSHORE. MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS RETURN ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS STARTING TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 35+ KT GUSTS. LONG TERM...WATERS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS BOTH WIND AND WAVES MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154. && $$ SCHWIBS/CURTIS

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