Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 221838 AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 238 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR INTO THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY AND BRING SHOWERS AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WET WEATHER WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIVES IN.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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AT 18Z...A 1023 MILLIBAR HIGH WAS CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY WARM AN HUMID AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. ISOLATED SPRINKLES POPPED UP OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND NOON BUT HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. FOR TONIGHT...WE`LL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S AND AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARMING INTO THE 80S. THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MID COAST MAINE WITH ONSHORE FLOW...SHOULD TOUCH 90 DEGREES. WITH CAPES OF 2000 - 3000 J/KG ON WEDNESDAY AND APPROACHING FRONT...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BREAKOUT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z THEN RACE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH. PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE IN THE LARGEST STORMS. PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES COULD AID IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IF CELLS TRAIN. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ENDING OVERNIGHT WITH EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT ANAFRONTAL RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THEREAFTER...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROF WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING US TO GET INTO A MORE MOIST AND MERIDIONAL FLOW. THIS MAY MEAN PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED AROUND MONDAY.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF VLY FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING. WED WILL SEE A RETURN TO VFR IN THE MORNING...BUT SEVERE TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AT INLAND TERMINALS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE COAST TOWARDS EVENING. LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PATCHY LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW CHANCE FOR CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON SUNDAY IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
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&& .MARINE...
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SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS AND OCNL GUSTS OUTSIDE THE BAYS REACHING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG/HAZE LIKELY WITH A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON THE WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING. LONG TERM...MAINLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THU THROUGH SAT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS BUILD SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE. NH...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
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&& $$ SCHWIBS/EKSTER

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