Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 161500 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS...
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Canadian high pressure with cooler and dry weather builds in through Tuesday. A weak surface trough will cross the region Tuesday night. A large ridge of high pressure will build across the eastern U.S. allowing a warm dry southwest flow to return for the last half of the week. A cold front will cross the region early Friday, followed by more high pressure.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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11 AM Update...Breezy and cool conditions will continue this afternoon. Clouds on the coastal plain should gradually give way to increasing sun this afternoon. However, they should hold tough in the mountains. Have lowered temps 1-3 degrees for this afternoon as strong CAA continues. 622 AM...For this ESTF update I made minor adjustments to near term grids that reflect the current mesonet as well as satellite trends. Prev disc... At 06z...a 990 millibar low was vicinity of the Gaspe Peninsula with a trailing cold front extending southward along the coastal plain of eastern New England. NWS Doppler Radar mosaic showed scattered showers along and immediately behind the surface boundary. For today...the boundary and associated shortwave impulse will sweep well offshore by dawn along with much of the shower activity. For today...a few fair weather clouds outside the mountains otherwise a mostly sunny and breezy day with seasonable temperatures. Meanwhile...the higher terrain will see some upslope clouds along with a few rain or snow showers...largely elevation dependent.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... For tonight...shortwave trough will cross the area with a few clouds...while we continue to see some upslope clouds across the higher terrain. A surface ridge eventually noses into the area in the predawn hours of Tuesday. Still on the fence as to extent of the frost potential tonight away from the coast in areas where the frost/freeze program remains active. So...no headlines will be issued on this shift. A chilly start on Tuesday with a sunny start to the day allowing temperatures to rebound into the 50s. An approaching shortwave impulse and surface trough will bring some clouds to northern and mountain sections by afternoon. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A very weak cold front will sweep across the region Tuesday night. This system will be moisture starved with very little if any precipitation expected across the far northern mountains with a slight chance of rainfall. The ridge will quickly rebuild across the region on Wednesday. Therefore, temperatures will be quicker to rebound into and through the 60s with the most sunshine over downslope region. Yet another trough of low pressure will approach the region Thursday, allowing another dry frontal passage late Thursday night and early Friday. 00Z model suite suggests that the ridge will once again rebuild across Maine and New Hampshire later in the week. However, a northwest flow will dominate the region Friday. Upslope clouds like to remain in the north and mountains during this period, with downslope conditions and sunshine over southern areas allowing readings to climb through the 60s once again. This ridge will allow for more sunshine and dry conditions into next weekend as our very dry period continues. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Short Term /through Tuesday/...BKN MVFR cigs in mtn clouds through 11z Tue...otw VFR conditions expected throughout. Long Term...VFR conditions will prevail through the period.
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&& .MARINE...
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Short Term /through Tuesday/...Lingering small craft conditions expected today into Tuesday outside the bays. Long Term...Wed and Thu...Small craft conditions are possible outside the bays. Otherwise, a cold front on Friday may allow for a few wind gusts to approach gale force from the northwest.
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&& .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150>154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Ekster

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