Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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000 FXUS61 KGYX 231029 AAA AFDGYX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 629 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR AND COOL CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH MUCH WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY....PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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UPDATE...TEMPS HAVE JUST ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT EVERYWHERE THIS MORNING. ANY FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY THIS POINT...SO WILL DROP HEADLINES. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...AND A SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE REGION. THIS CAA IS KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...TEMPS HAVE ONLY SLOWLY AND STEADILY FALLEN. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY FROM THE W...SO WRN ZONES MAY BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE BEFORE SUNRISE AND ALLOW A QUICKER DROP IN READINGS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNINGS TO WORK OUT WELL...WITH FROST ADVISORIES REMAINING IN PLACE AS WELL. HOWEVER...ANY WIND WILL LIKELY MAKE WIDESPREAD FROST DIFFICULT TO ATTAIN THIS MORNING. THE OTHER CONCERN TODAY IS THE FIRE DANGER. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MIXED LAYER THRU AT LEAST 825 MB. DEWPOINTS AT THIS LEVEL INDICATE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN LOW TEENS VALUES BY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT. WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG...BUT GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS WILL BE LIKELY. FINALLY RECENT DRY WX HAS ENSURED THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN DESPITE GREEN UP BEING UNDER WAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ADDED ASPECT OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES LIKE BONFIRES AND GRILLING WILL ONLY ELEVATE THE RISK FURTHER. WOULD RATHER HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT THAN NOT AT THIS POINT...SO HAVE UPGRADED THE WATCH EVERYWHERE TO A WARNING.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... TONIGHT RETURN FLOW QUICKLY BEGINS...AND FOR THAT REASON WE WILL SEE A WARMER NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. BY SUN TEMPS WILL WARM QUITE NICELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES...WITH 70S FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. WITH W TO WSW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE FAVORED WARM SPOTS LIKE KASH COULD REACH THE 80S. ALSO EXPECTING SOME DEWPOINT RECOVERY IN THE RETURN FLOW REGIME...BUT COULD STILL SEE WIDESPREAD RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON. THAT PROBABLY RULES OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS...BUT AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL STILL EXIST. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH A WEAK COLD FRONT SKIRTING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. WILL PROBABLY TRY AND TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE NRN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PROBABLY IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT SPC SREF GUIDANCE DOES HINT AT A SMALL CHANCE AT THUNDER BUT WILL LEAVE IT OUT OF THE GRIDS FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... BLOCKY SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN AT 500 MB EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WRN ATLANTIC AND 500MB JET RETREATS POLEWARD. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCT TSRA...AT TIMES...AS WE ARE ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF IMPULSES MOVING BY IN THE STRONGER 500 MB FLOW TO OUR N. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10F WARMER THAN TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPR 40S IN THE MTNS AND LOW-MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. MONDAY SHOULD START OFF MAINLY SUNNY...BUT WILL SEE MID-HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERES A SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER IN THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE REAL THREAT OF ANY RAIN HOLDS UNTIL MON NIGHT. DECENT MID-LVL WAA WILL MOVE THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...AND SHOULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TDS RISE QUICKLY BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT SHOOTING UP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SRN ZONES SHOULD BREAK OUT INTO SUN FAIRLY EARLY ION THE DAY AND WILL SEE HIGHS SOAR INTO THE LOW-MID 80S HERE..WITH 70S ELSEWHERE AS CLOUDS LINGER THRU THE MORNING. WED-THU WILL BE WARM AND HUMID...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S INLAND...AND IN THE 70S ON THE COAST. MODELS MOVE A WAVE OR TWO OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE NRN ZONES. BETTER CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO SAT AS MODELS TRY TO BREAK THE RIDGE DOWN WITH SOME WEAK WAVES IN THE 500 MB FLOW. THE EURO HOLDS THE RIDGING AND WARM AIR IN PLACE ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND THRU NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THRU SUN. NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. WLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN. LONG TERM...VFR SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUE MORNING IN SHOWERS AND LOWERING CEILINGS...WITH A RETURN TO VFR TUE AFTERNOON THRU WED. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL THIS EVENING WHEN WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH. LONG TERM...SW FLOW PERSISTS MONDAY THRU WED AND COULD FLARE TO NEAR SCA LVLS MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .FIRE WEATHER... VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL CREATE SOME DANGEROUS FIRE BEHAVIOR CONDITIONS. GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY...BUT RECENT DRY WEATHER WILL ENSURE THAT FINE FUELS REMAIN READY TO BURN. THERE WILL BE SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT...BUT SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AGAIN. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028. NH...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-006>015. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150>154.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...LEGRO SHORT TERM...LEGRO LONG TERM...CEMPA AVIATION...CEMPA/LEGRO MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO FIRE WEATHER...LEGRO

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