-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 131446
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1046 AM EDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly drier weather is expected today but there will be
plenty of showers around. Drier and warmer conditions return
for tonight and early Sunday but showers move back into the
picture Sunday afternoon and night. High pressure gradually
builds in early next week with partly to mostly sunny skies and
a warming trend. Cooler conditions with mainly rain expected
late next week as low pressure develops to our south.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
1030 AM...I have adjusted sky and POPS a bit through today based
on current conds, but the latest model runs as well. More
scattered showers showers across much of the CWA early today
will wind down later as the front moves through, while over the
mtns should see shower increase in coverage and to some degree
intensity, and winds shift to WNW and upslope takes over, with
best coverage there this evening.

7:20am Update... Worked some patchy fog into the grids for this
as some areas have been seeing it. Otherwise, notable changes
with this update.

Previous...

An upper level low slowly moves through New England during the
daytime today, kicking off more scattered shower activity,
especially in the afternoon. Some sunshine is expected this
morning toward the coast, but clouds fill in by the afternoon.
The most frequent showers are expected across the higher
terrain, western New Hampshire, and northern spots. With the
clouds and showers, highs don`t warm a whole lot from where
temps start the day. Mainly 40s and 50s are expected, with the
warmest readings near the coast. A cold front then pushes
through late this afternoon, shifting winds to the west and
ushering in some drier air.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A weak shortwave ridge crosses through late tonight and the
first part of tomorrow, bringing a period of drier and mild
conditions. Lows bottom out in the 30s and 40s tonight, with
highs warming into the 50s to near 60 in southern New Hampshire.
However, the dry period looks to be short lived as a weak area
of low pressure approaches from the west late in the day
tomorrow.

High res guidance has become more amplified and further north
with this system, likely bringing another round of showers to at
least southern New Hampshire. So while tomorrow looks decent
through midday, clouds would quickly increase only an hour or
two ahead of the showers, and temps would then fall into the 40s
as wet bulbing occurs. A period of steady rain is also possible
across southern New Hampshire, but chances for this still look
better to the south through Massachusetts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A low weak low pressure system moves across the forecast area
Sunday night with with showers, especially in the evening. Some
minor snow accums will be possible in the highest elevations in
the mountains.

Thereafter drier NW flow pattern takes over through Wednesday
allowing for mainly fair weather and temperatures a bit above
normal. Still cannot rule out a few showers during this period
though, especially in the mountains on Tuesday with a weak cold
frontal passage.

Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance is in reasonably good
agreement for the late week time period with wet weather
returning. However, the pattern appears to be a bit complex, so
precipitation timing and amounts are still of low confidence at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Lingering IFR ceilings at AUG improve this morning.
MVFR ceilings return to HIE and LEB this morning, and linger
into most of tonight. Elsewhere, mainly VFR conditions are
expected, with a few showers and periods of near MVFR ceilings.
VFR prevails through tomorrow at most terminals, except at HIE
where MVFR ceilings linger. Showers are likely late in the day
tomorrow across southern and western New Hampshire terminals.

Long Term...MVFR conditions possible in -SHRA Sunday night,
otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...A cold front crosses the waters late today, with
SCA conditions persisting through tomorrow as seas remain above
5ft. A weak low pressure system approaches from the west
tomorrow.


Long Term....SCA conditions persist through Monday or Monday
evening on the outer waters as seas continue to subside. SCA
conditions not expected Mon-Wed.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Some smaller and faster reacting river forecast points have
crested and are receding today, while some of the larger main
stem rivers, especially the Kennebec, with it`s tidal
fluctuations will continue to rise and not crest until this
evening. in minor flood at this time. Any light rainfall today
and Sunday should not have no effect on the rivers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ150>154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cempa/Clair
SHORT TERM...Clair
LONG TERM...Ekster