-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 131441
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1040 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY AND FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER WEAK LOW PRESSURE.
MORE DEVELOPED LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS NEAR CONCORD TUESDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
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1030 AM UPDATE...UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INCREASE POPS
AND CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR MOSAICS AND MODEL DATA. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE RAIN SHIELD ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...BUT SHOWERS AND ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. UP TO AN INCH
OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH BETWEEN TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

700 AM UPDATE... HAVE ADJUSTED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS AND ADDED
AREAS OF FOG ALONG CT RIVER VALLEY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-COAST REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOULD BE EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN NH AND
EXTREME SW MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM
THE MID-WEST. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 70 INLAND AREAS...BUT SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE, IN THE MOUNTAINS, AND IN
SOUTHERN NH. MOST MODELS KEEP AREA DRY TODAY.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALL AREAS...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA WHERE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY.
MODELS SHOW VERY TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH BETWEEN NO RAIN
AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. NAM AND ECMWF MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
REGION...WITH ONLY SOUTHERN NH AND EXTREME SW MAINE RECEIVING ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THIS GUIDANCE FOR
FORECAST. AS LOW MOVES EAST FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS AND MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW THAT
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS A BIT UNSTABLE...SO ANY HEATING COULD TRIGGER A
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND
MOUNTAINS.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN UNPHASED WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW SATURDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH
AXIS PUSHES AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW AND FRONT OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL END RAINFALL OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

MOST OF SATURDAY LOOKS WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY AS DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS
CLEAR OUT CLOUD DEBRIS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 70S WITH
LOWER 80S POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. SUNDAY LOOKS WARM AS
WELL WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE. SW WINDS WILL HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
AND 80S ONCE AGAIN DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND AN ILL DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY A MORE
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH THE 700 MB TROUGH
AXIS OVERHEAD. RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE EXTENDED LOOK HIGHEST OVER
SOUTHERN NH AND SW MAINE WHERE 2-3 INCHES COULD FALL. FARTHER NORTH
AMOUNTS DECREASE TO AN INCH OR LESS. OTHERWISE THUNDER LOOKS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
WHEN THE -22 C 500 MB COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH.
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&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...MVFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN PROBABLY DEVELOPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHERNMOST ME FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. THIS AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH NUDGES A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWARD.

LONG TERM...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE GUSTY
NW WINDS DEVELOP. PREVAILING VFR SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
MONDAY IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
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&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...3 TO 5 FT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN
WATERS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS FOR SEAS MAY DEVELOP IN REMAINDER OF OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PASSES NEAR THE WATERS.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT      TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ154.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$